Surface low forming off NC?

[rainstorm]

Whether or not theres a high over new england has little if any bearing on an EC threat. Get a massive Bermuda Azores high with an EC trof positioned just right( negatively tilted or even neutral) a storm can get literaly sucked into the mid atlantic in the former case or new england in the latter case. Just like what happened when the Long Island Express hit the northeast in 1938 I believe. No big high...just a trough that caught the hurricane like a gutter catches a bowling ball.

you are referring to a totally different scenario. your example is of a long track system that didnt form near the coast. for a tropical system to form off the se coast, you need a huge stationary high over new england to lock it in place and allow it to develop. no sign of that now

[rainstorm]

so you all our saying No east coast hurricane threats for this 2006 hurricane season based on the trough and the high pressure, I thought Bill gray says more east coast storms than the gulf

im not saying no east coast threats for the entire season, just for the next 10 days to 2 weeks. the pattern needs to change for an east coast threat

[willjnewton]

do you all think a east coast threat might happen for this 2006 hurricane season???

[george_r_1961]

do you all think a east coast threat might happen for this 2006 hurricane season???

Personally..yes I do. I live in Hampton and watch the tropics VERY carefully now.

[willjnewton]

but why do you think a east coast threat???, huh interesting

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I have a gut feeling it will. However no one knows for sure.

[george_r_1961]

Persistant troughing this year. As I stated above all the has to happen is have the EC trough aligned just right.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well, I'm going to say the obvious answer here. Even if there is troughing off the east coast right now doesn't mean there will be troughing constantly. High pressures build and hold and then troughs come down and weaken them. It just depends on where everything is at the time and position the storm(s).

[willjnewton]

is the east coast trough currently aligned just right for a east coast threat for this 2006 storms season???

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

True, but it could move them all out to sea (mean position staying to far East at the time). Still I tend to agree with you george_r_1961, I just have the feeling something might very well happen.

[george_r_1961]

is the east coast trough currently aligned just right for a east coast threat for this 2006 storms season???

At the moment...no. The trough is not stationary.

[willjnewton]

but if you say the east coast trough is NOT aligned just right than why do you say or think more east coast threats???, im confused

[george_r_1961]

but if you say the east coast trough is NOT aligned just right than why do you say or think more east coast threats???, im confused

The trough isnt in the same place all the time. Sometimes its offshore sometimes its inland. The position of the trough when a storm approaches is what matters.

[willjnewton]

but anyway based on the latest data and most accurate data you all have, even though the trough is NOT just right for a threat to the east coast, you still think the east coast has a threat for this 2006 hurricane season correct???

[rainstorm]

is the east coast trough currently aligned just right for a east coast threat for this 2006 storms season???

you are asking some great questions. right now the trough would not allow a cane to get close to the east coast. a front has just come off the coast, and that will block canes from the east coast

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUIR.JPG

it may be hard to see, but there is a front well off the east coast in this pic

[Bane]

I don't think anyone is saying that for the duration of the season. That is just what is currently happening. A strong high will push a backdoor cold front through the Carolinas this weekend. This could be the early beginnings of a more active tropical threat.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Interesting Feature:

"BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND DEWPOINTS CREEP BACK INTO THE 70S. THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE HOWEVER...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ONE CAUTIONARY NOTE IN THIS PATTERN: WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND POTENTIALLY TWO COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AND STALL TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT WEEK...TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php ... =ILMAFDILM

[Jim Cantore]

do you all think a east coast threat might happen for this 2006 hurricane season???

Personally..yes I do. I live in Hampton and watch the tropics VERY carefully now.

If the ECT and the Bermuda High sit in the right (or wrong) spot, we can easily have another Floyd or Gloria.

Or if the Burmuda high and a ULL team up they can Funnel a storm into the Delaware Bay

just too many scenarios can make things go terrably wrong really fast.

[Stormavoider]

What do you all think of this feature at 32N 72W?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal

The closest buoy to the north is reporting 1006.8 mb pressure.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41001

[vacanechaser]

it does not look lke much to me right now.... there is some pretty strong winds coming from the northwest which is blowing everything off to the east and southeast... there is a succession of fronts coming down the next few days... maybe later in the weekend or early next week we will have to watch it..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team