Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[HouTXmetro]

may have a UL form over this system during the next few hours.

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_200.html

UL is centered over W Fla, and the winds seem to indicate that it may expand over the surface low

doesn't that mean this sytem is toast if a UL forms over it?

[Derek Ortt]

it means, I believe the greater chance of development lies further east than this LLC just north of the Bahamas. We are starting to get upper ridging there

[MiamiensisWx]

Right now, the system is under weak steering currents as the trough pulls away from the system which is attempting to possibly close off a low in the vicinity of Grand Bahama Island. The trough is currently pulling away from the system, with the western portion of the trough weakening, decreasing the upper-level to mid-level shear over the system slightly and allowing for the system to separate from the trough and remain under weak steering currents. This, along with diffluent divergence, has allowed for some convective flareup consolidation in the vicinity of the possible developing low, as evidenced in this visible loop. As shear has decreased, the system's organization has gradually improved a bit.

Due to weak steering currents, the system may move slowly south or south-southwest through the next 36 hours before possibly stalling, generating sporadic convective bursts but still continuing to gradually organize due to mild favorable diffluence and the aforementioned shear decrease. The synoptics and possible course/development of the system at that time and beyond may become more problematic as an approaching trough from the east-central U.S. may erode the low-level to weak mid-level ridging to the north of the system, which could play a huge influence in the track of this system. If the system develops more than expected and the ridging to the north weakens and shifts off the east, while the western portion of the ridging also weakens and retrogrades westward, a meandering movement into or near east-central Florida and north-northwest to northward inland may be most likely due to the influence of the trough coupled with slow but steady organization. On the other hand, if the system moves slightly faster and meanders more to the south-southwest, the trough eroding the ridging may not have more effect on the system until after the system potentially splits and crosses southern Florida and into the extreme eastern Gulf or western Florida. If that occurs, and if the ridging splits off more to the west and weakens slower, a more westward motion further into the Gulf may be possible. Timing of the system's position and trough position/ridge erosion, along with the system's heading and movement, will likely be the keys that may determine the course of the system/developing low and it's course beyond 36 hours.

Due to all the factors considered, I think a track and synoptics in between these possible solutions may be most likely possibly, with the low slowly developing/possibly reforming and meandering into southeast Florida before slowly moving northwest up through the peninsula; however, due to uncertainties, the synoptics and other factors have yet to be seen. Due to the synoptics, I think development of the system may be possible, but due to lingering shear and mid-level dry air that may continue to limit development and more solid convective consolidation somewhat, I think slow and gradual development may be most likely. A later reformation of the center at around 36 hours or beyond, due to the synoptics and nature of these systems undet similar synoptics, may occur.

[Air Force Met]

Im not looking at models people. Im looking at the dynamics the models show.

The high to the north is forecast to back off a litttle.



Cripes people, GOMers want it to go there.
South Florida people seem to belive they are the TS magnet.

If Im wrong, Ill eat my crow, but you better get your taste buds ready as well...

But the post you gave with the links to the model tracks...where the models think it will go...CHANGES because the dynamics changes when the center is in a different location.

So even though steering dynamics show it going one way...when you move the center a couple hundred miles to the SW...the track totally changes.

[gatorcane]

Right now, the system is under weak steering currents as the trough pulls away from the system which is attempting to possibly close off a low in the vicinity of Grand Bahama Island. The trough is currently pulling away from the system, with the western portion of the trough weakening, decreasing the upper-level to mid-level shear over the system slightly and allowing for the system to separate from the trough and remain under weak steering currents. This, along with diffluent divergence, has allowed for some convective flareup consolidation in the vicinity of the possible developing low, as evidenced in this visible loop. As shear has decreased, the system's organization has gradually improved a bit.

Due to weak steering currents, the system may move slowly south or south-southwest through the next 36 hours before possibly stalling, generating sporadic convective bursts but still continuing to gradually organize due to mild favorable diffluence and the aforementioned shear decrease. The synoptics and possible course/development of the system at that time and beyond may become more problematic as an approaching trough from the east-central U.S. may erode the low-level to weak mid-level ridging to the north of the system, which could play a huge influence in the track of this system. If the system develops more than expected and the ridging to the north weakens and shifts off the east, while the western portion of the ridging also weakens and retrogrades westward, a meandering movement into or near east-central Florida and north-northwest to northward inland may be most likely due to the influence of the trough coupled with slow but steady organization. On the other hand, if the system moves slightly faster and meanders more to the south-southwest, the trough eroding the ridging may not have more effect on the system until after the system potentially splits and crosses southern Florida and into the extreme eastern Gulf or western Florida. If that occurs, and if the ridging splits off more to the west and weakens slower, a more westward motion further into the Gulf may be possible. Timing of the system's position and trough position/ridge erosion, along with the system's heading and movement, will likely be the keys that may determine the course of the system/developing low and it's course beyond 36 hours.

Due to all the factors considered, I think a track and synoptics in between these possible solutions may be most likely possibly, with the low slowly developing/possibly reforming and meandering into southeast Florida before slowly moving northwest up through the peninsula; however, due to uncertainties, the synoptics and other factors have yet to be seen. Due to the synoptics, I think development of the system may be possible, but due to lingering shear and mid-level dry air that may continue to limit development and more solid convective consolidation somewhat, I think slow and gradual development may be most likely. A later reformation of the center at around 36 hours or beyond, due to the synoptics and nature of these systems undet similar synoptics, may occur.

CapeVerdeWave that was an excellent post - thanks for the analysis, I have to agree with you.

[gatorcane]

I can't believe how far south this front has pushed for this time of year.....otherwise this thing would be developing off the carolinas.

[gatorcane]

looks like 93 continues to meander SSW and is getting more organized....does anybody else see this?

[southerngale]

Im not looking at models people. Im looking at the dynamics the models show.

The high to the north is forecast to back off a litttle.



Cripes people, GOMers want it to go there.
South Florida people seem to belive they are the TS magnet.

If Im wrong, Ill eat my crow, but you better get your taste buds ready as well...

With all due respect, these GOMers and South Florida people you speak of are basing their comments on what is actually happening with the system now and what various mets are saying. If there's an outlier here, I'd have to say it's you in NE Florida stating matter of factly it won't go to Miami. Nobody knows exactly what it will do, but it's always wise to use phrases like, "I think..." or "I believe" instead of "It will do this..."
You will rarely even find mets stating matter of factly what WILL occur...they're not psychics either.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.





ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THREE SURFACE LOWS ARE ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC MAP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENE FROM THE SE FLORIDA COAST. THE
FIRST IS A 1013MB LOW JUST NORTH OF THE NW BAHAMAS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THIS LOW TODAY FROM
26N-28N BETWEEN 77W-80W. ANOTHER CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
28N74W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. THE THIRD LOW IS
ANALYZED NEAR 29N63W...BUT VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SPINNING NEAR
25N71W. AN UPPER HIGH IS EXTENDING NORTH FROM HISPANIOLA INTO
THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. A DISTINCT UPPER LOW IS SEEN SPINNING
NEAR 23N51W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED JUST W OF THIS
UPPER LOW FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. AN UPPER HIGH
REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 20N19W AND
EXTENDS W TO NEAR 40W. A 1019MB SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 26N47W.
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH AND THE UPPER
HIGH OFF AFRICA IS EXPERIENCING DRY AIR/FAIR WEATHER...FROM 17N
TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.

$$
WILLIS

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif



Good illustration of these lows.

[rockyman]

So does "some slow development" apply only to the low to the NE near 28/74? Navy is still focusing on that low as well.

[Derek Ortt]

that low near 74W has better upper support

[Thunder44]

So does "some slow development" apply only to the low to the NE near 28/74? Navy is still focusing on that low as well.

When NHC runs the models this afternoon, it will probably be initialized with center positioned further west.

[KatDaddy]

Just in......Miami Forecast Disc:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
220 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...UNUSUAL FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SETTING OFF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WAY. AT THE SAME TIME...STALLED PORTION OF
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS APPEARS TO BE FOCUS FOR ONE OR TWO
AREAS OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. TPC IS WATCHING. UPPER LOW EAST
OF FLORIDA IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE STATETUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS A GOOD BET EACH AFTERNOON. FUTURE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TO LOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...EAST OF
THE PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID WEEK.
THIS WILL MEAN A RETURN TO TROPICAL EASTERLIES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL RAIN PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

AFD for Jacksonville FL . . .

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/cgi-bin/tex ... Discussion

From above link:
"OTHER
FEATURE OF NOTE IS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. SEVERAL WEAK SFC LOW CAN BE SEEN
THROUGHOUT THIS AREA WITH GUIDANCE DEVELOPING A HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS KEY TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CONSENSUS BRINGS SOME SORT OF LOW NORTH AND THEN WEST INTO THE
SOUTH CAROLINA OR SOUTHEAST GA COAST."

[gatorcane]

Looks like the convection is deepening this afternoon folks, check out the latest frame which shows some deep red showing up.....

I think it is getting better organized.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like Accuweather messed up with this graphic. They have the low still positioned near the old location instead of north of the Bahamas.

[shaggy]

or maybe the old location has the best chance of development not the new itty bitty spin north of the bahamas and their graphic is correct!

[MortisFL]

Looks like the convection is deepening this afternoon folks, check out the latest frame which shows some deep red showing up.....

I think it is getting better organized.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Some deep red? You mean that glitch in the IR?

[Derek Ortt]

I'm seeing no signs of organization this afternoon, especially of the low just north of the Bahamas

[whereverwx]

It looks sheared.