GOM System (Ex 95L)

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skysummit
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#201 Postby skysummit » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:06 pm

From the 10:30 TWO:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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#202 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:07 pm

:blowup:

I'd watch that new MCS though...
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#203 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:09 pm

Best disco out of Houston in quite awhile.....
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Thunder44
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#204 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:11 pm

Well they still want to keep the system off the SE coast an invest and it has little convection with it. So why not call this one an invest too?
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#205 Postby roadie » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:11 pm

this may be a bit over cautious...

nonetheless. it IS strictly an INVESTigation of possible concern, a job the Navy has to do to perform its world-wide operations...if it deflates to nothing, it's given us something to talk about, and from reading this forum, we need something to talk about...
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#206 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:13 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/archive/06081512/52.html

NOGAPS :uarrow: :uarrow:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam ... 518/3.html

NAM :uarrow: :uarrow:
Doesn't look like these models are showing any kind of SW track. Makes you wonder..

All I know is I hope they are right. I am really wanting to get some rain soon! I am sick of this dry, hot weather! :roll:

BTW, here is the official 72 hr. forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Let's just hope their usual 3-4 day track error works out and this is a tad further north (up by Matagorda) with some nice cloudy/rainy weather on the north side.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:18 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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crab_storm

#207 Postby crab_storm » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:14 pm

Here is an interesting 60 hour forcast

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WW3 ... ht.060.gif

forcasting possible TD / TS in MS / AL
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#208 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:20 pm

Thats a wave forecast...Theres very likely will not be a tropical cyclone out of this thing.
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crab_storm

#209 Postby crab_storm » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:24 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Thats a wave forecast...Theres very likely will not be a tropical cyclone out of this thing.


well... what do you think generates waves in the GOM this time of year.
This is a Navy forcast...
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#210 Postby rockyman » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:40 pm

Winds here on Dauphin Island are HOWLING! The MCS is getting ready to roll through...will be our first rain (hopefully) in a long time...Wahoo! :cheesy:
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#211 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:41 pm

I see circulation though...
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#212 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:44 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I see circulation though...


Using what imagery?
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#213 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:46 pm

it went poof!
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#214 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:47 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I see circulation though...


Using what imagery?



x-ray..... :lol:
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caneman

#215 Postby caneman » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:49 pm

Anyone know if that ULL parked over us here in Tampa is suppose to weaken, move out. If so when, where? Until and if it is gone, looks like both systems will struggle
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#216 Postby EmeraldCoast1 » Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:01 pm

I know it's OT, but we just got a sweeeet gust front prior to the big batch of t-storms that is rolling through the area here in P'cola. It went from a humid August evening to something like October in a matter of about 8 minutes. Then the rain and lightning came, so I moved it inside. Gotta love summer weather patterns in the South!
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#217 Postby sevenleft » Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:07 pm

This'll be the shortest lived Invest ever...
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#218 Postby TS Zack » Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:08 pm

That MCS is packing some punch...

15 21:53 N 33 G 45 10.00 Thunderstorm in Vicinity Light Rain Squalls and Windy FEW027 BKN110 80 71 30.06 1017.7
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#219 Postby EmeraldCoast1 » Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:16 pm

skysummit wrote:From the 10:30 TWO:

LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


Kinda makes me wonder what WILL happen IF anything happens with this area.
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#220 Postby LaBreeze » Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:32 pm

Local mets out of Lafayette and Lake Charles are not worried about "blob" in the GOM. Channel 3 KATC met, Rob Perillo, stated that this may bring in some slight showers later in the week to this area, but he's looking for pressures to begin dropping in the Western Carib. and GOM in about a week to ten days from now. He seemed more concerned about this than anything. Would be nice to get some cooling rains from whatever is in the GOM - even some clouds to cut out that scorching sun. 110 degree heat index at 10:00 p.m. at Chenault Air Field in Lake Charles tonight.
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