Another Very Interesting N.O. Forecast Discussion

[KatDaddy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO ONGOING PACKAGE THIS MORNING.

ANOTHER MCS COLD CORE FEATURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE
FIRST OF THESE FROM YESTERDAY MORNING DEVELOPED AND FELL APART
OVER THE GULF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE PRE-EXISTING SFC CIRCULATION
CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
CLEARED...VIOLA LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COULD THEN FORM CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LOW LEVEL WARM CORE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH VERY SMALL. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST OF TWO
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE GULF CENTERED AT ~25.2N 91.5W. IT IS ALSO
REACTING WITH SFC RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF CAUSING PRESSURES
TO REAMIN QUITE HIGH.

THE SECOND IS MUCH LARGER AND BROADER AND IS A LITTLE HARDER TO
PICK OUT. IT IS ROUGHLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE AROUND 26.1N 85.9W
WHICH IS ALSO WHERE BUOY 42003 IS LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF. THIS BUOY HAS SHOWN A STEADY PRESSURE DROP FROM 0400Z TO
CURRENT TIME BUT IT HAS BEEN MODEST. THE BUOY IS SHOWING A
PRESSURE OF 1013.O MB AND DROPPED A MB OVER THE LAST 4 HRS.
USUALLY THE LARGER CIRCULATION WOULD DOMINATE AND BELIEVE IN THIS
CASE IT WILL SINCE THE FIRST IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC. NEVERTHELESS A LOT OF EYES WILL BE TRAINED ON
THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A LARGE BLOCKING UPPER-MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR SHV TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL CAUSE THE UPPER LOW OVER FLA TO TAKE A SLIGHT DETOUR
SOUTHWEST AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF. THE SPACING BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL BECOME TIGHT ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE UPPER LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW TO AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THIS AREA. THIS TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT THE BEST FOR DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEMS. BUT
THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS SHOWING A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. THE
SYNOPTIC MEAN FLOW OVER THE GULF SHOULD ALSO KEEP WHATEVER
DEVELOPS MOVING WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NW TOWARD THE CENTRAL OR UPPER
TX COAST. AS THE LOW OR OPEN WAVE?????? MOVES SLOWLY WEST IT WILL
BRING A NICE WALL OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY CAUSING TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MORE
SH/TS TO BREAK OUT.

MARINE...
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY FURTHER DROP IN PRESSURES OVER THE GULF
SINCE THE REACTION FROM SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LA AND ANY
FURTHER PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE GULF WILL CAUSE GRADIENT WINDS TO
INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ATTM THOUGH...NO PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN OUR COASTAL WATERS.