Dr. Jeff Masters updated August outlook

[Steve]

>>Well I personally like the fact that people like DR. Gray, Jeff Masters, Joe B, and others, are at least trying to pick out steering current predictors. Anything that can increase our understanding of the forces that drive these storms, is fine by me. I'll wait to see how things turn out, before I'll disregard their predictions. After all many people laughed at DR. Gray when he invented seasonal activity forecasts, and look what happened there.

I'm right with you there. I think we're on the cusp of seasonal pattern predictions much the way Dr. Gray pioneered quantifying seasons beginning back in the 1970's. I've argued this numerous times over the last few years and do believe we're on the verge of some new science concerning seasonal predictions. But the logic of "below average" just doesn't hold up if you don't specify a) what the average is; and b) what the parameters are that consist of average (time frame, length of sample, intensity, etc.). So yeah, I know what you're saying, I just don't know what Dr. Masters is saying.

Steve

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well I guess we can agree to disagree on this one. Like yourself, I see the logic of and respect your argument, even if I do not completely agree with it. I guess we'll all just have to wait until December 1st to see how the 2006 season panned out.

[Steve]

>>Well I guess we can agree to disagree on this one. Like yourself, I see the logic of and respect your argument, even if I do not completely agree with it. I guess we'll all just have to wait until December 1st to see how the 2006 season panned out.

Naturally . But how will we know if it was a below-average Gulf season or not?

Steve

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well if there are no storms, or only one or two weak ones in the GOM, and the majority of the storms are in the Atlantic and Caribbean, we'll know it was below average for the GOM.

[bucman1]

Although Dr. Masters is much more experienced than me ,I still believe timing is everything and we all know that synoptics change hourly,so
no one and i mean no one is safe from thses storms at this time

[Steve]

>>Well if there are no storms, or only one or two weak ones in the GOM, and the majority of the storms are in the Atlantic and Caribbean, we'll know it was below average for the GOM.

But we have numerous years where no systems or just 1 or 2 get into the Gulf. So that kind of brings the argument back to the start (e.g. "below average compared to what - number of systems for the season, number of systems for a defined period, strength of systems for the season, strength of systems for a defined period, strength and number of systems....)

FWIW, I'm assuming the average number of storms in the Gulf per year is probably somewhere between 1.5 and 3 if based on the last 40 or so years. I could be completely off on this, but that would be my guess. It's probably less if you take out 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005.

Steve

[Extremeweatherguy]

I notice these "steering pattern" forecasts seem to always be aimed toward just CV systems. Why don't they ever take into account the home-brewed ones? For instance, if a storm formed in the eastern Gulf...where would it go this year? How about the BOC? Or just of the SE coast of FL?

Just something I was thinking about..

[Lifesgud2]

My prediction for September: 8 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes (two Category 5's).

LOLOLOLOLOLOL

Stop with this already...

As active as we were last year, thats how inactive we are this year. Why is it so hard to beleive that there will be only a couple of hurricanes...

[Regit]

My prediction for September: 8 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes (two Category 5's).

LOLOLOLOLOLOL

Stop with this already...

As active as we were last year, thats how inactive we are this year. Why is it so hard to beleive that there will be only a couple of hurricanes...

Because there isn't much evidence that this will be a slow season. I don't see much out of the ordinary to suggest a slow season.

[willjnewton]

the eastern pacific is neutral am I correct???because I looked at the sea surface temperature anomalies on the 15th of august and they said neutral so can someone please explain to me what's going on???, okay thanks

[rainstorm]

whats going on is very dry air in the tropics. also, a trough is coming for the end of aug and sept that should help recurve canes. keep up the good work, will

[jasons2k]

whats going on is very dry air in the tropics. also, a trough is coming for the end of aug and sept that should help recurve canes. keep up the good work, will

That highly depends of if the trough is progressive or not. There is a big difference between a progressive trough and one that's blocked. The forecasts I've seen hint that the trough will be blocked - and rather than kicking fishes out to sea it will act more like a magnent.

[Steve]

>>As active as we were last year, thats how inactive we are this year. Why is it so hard to beleive that there will be only a couple of hurricanes...

State the parameters and make the bet. If you are that convinced, you should be able to make a ton of money off of "only a couple of hurricanes" IMHO. I'm sure if the site got half the proceeds, they'd sponsor you via one of their paypal accounts and let the winner(s) take all. By a "couple", I'm assuming you're meaning 3 or less hurricanes for the remainder of the season (4 if generous).

So whatchoo got?

Steve