Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[bayoubebe]

Where did my post go? I know I posted on here last night.

[Kerry04]

looks like a lot of convection have flare-up down there and its keep getting bigger


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[NONAME]

I'd be willing to bet they are not fueling there planes as we write. There just strong convection right now it would take a day or two to form so id give it that before recon is sent if it persist till then.

[Stratosphere747]

There might be a mention of it on the TWO, but I doubt it. There is no evidence of anything near a LLC. Hard to really even pick out any broad MLC.

Earliest there would be a mention of recon would be this afternoon, IF something more began to show up throughout the day.

[Meso]

84 Hour NAM Model Run (12z)

[Extremeweatherguy]

84 Hour NAM Model Run (12z)

and here is the loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Portastorm]

84 Hour NAM Model Run (12z)

Run for the hills!!!

You know, the unsettling thing is you have to figure the NAM is going to be right one of these times. Can't be wrong every time, can it?!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is the thought right now this maybe a western GOM storm? I know no one knows for sure but it should depend on the steering currents. Is that correct?

Looks to be a blocking ridge over eastern Texas but moving west. Looks to be one over Western Florida as well. At least that's what I think I see on water vapor....using my untrained eyes of course. Well I was a radar guy (OS) in the Navy (retired now) and did spend some time looking at weather sat images.

No one's commenting yet but I'm sure they are all looking at this now. At least I hope they are....

I wouldn't pay much attention to JB. He's going to predict everything into the Western Gulf so his beginning of season predictions come true.



I guess when we have an invest and a recon and then that data is fed into the models we'll have a good idea then. I hope they're fueling planes as we write this. I'd be willing to bet that they are.

I am sorry, but that makes no sense. How does him forecasting something into the W. GOM make his beginning of season predictions come true? In order for that to happen, then the storm has to really do what he says! He is not just going to lie and say something is going into the W. GOM when he really thinks it's going elsewhere.

[perk]

EWG i thought the exact same thing when i read that post.If you don't like J.B. that's your right, but don't make senseless accusations like that.

[Lindaloo]

Where did my post go? I know I posted on here last night.

You posted in the other GOM thread.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=300

[KatDaddy]

This is not a Joe B bash thread. This really gets old people. If you do not like Joe B dont post anything in reply to any Joe B posts!

[KatDaddy]

Exactly Perk.

[chrisnnavarre]

Is the thought right now this maybe a western GOM storm? I know no one knows for sure but it should depend on the steering currents. Is that correct?

Looks to be a blocking ridge over eastern Texas but moving west. Looks to be one over Western Florida as well. At least that's what I think I see on water vapor....using my untrained eyes of course. Well I was a radar guy (OS) in the Navy (retired now) and did spend some time looking at weather sat images.

No one's commenting yet but I'm sure they are all looking at this now. At least I hope they are....

I wouldn't pay much attention to JB. He's going to predict everything into the Western Gulf so his beginning of season predictions come true.



I guess when we have an invest and a recon and then that data is fed into the models we'll have a good idea then. I hope they're fueling planes as we write this. I'd be willing to bet that they are.

I am sorry, but that makes no sense. How does him forecasting something into the W. GOM make his beginning of season predictions come true? In order for that to happen, then the storm has to really do what he says! He is not just going to lie and say something is going into the W. GOM when he really thinks it's going elsewhere.

Sorry, just my opinion not really an accusation. He just seems to be more
entertainment to me. I guess that's why he keeps his job at accuweather.

Don't get me wrong. I enjoy being entertained. The Weather Channel is really just a lot of entertainment as well isn't it.

Got to pay for the air time somehow.

[Nimbus]

Fuel prices have not been this low since April so the delay of the hurricane season has been good for energy prices.

Not too many early birds buying wholesale energy contracts friday but I would bet anyone that has been waiting for a price bottom would be topping up their holdings soon.

[KatDaddy]

Sorry to vent chrisnnavarre. Your opinion is valid.

[MortisFL]

I agree, TWC has forgotten that their station is supposed to be focused on weather.

[rolltide]

My post from last night

It's looks to me on the latest vis sat loops that something is maybe coming together around 80W. and 12N. It also appears that part of the wave is going to the east pac and the other part is headed northward. Thoughts anyone?

I'm now looking at around 81W and 14N. I don't see a rotation but to me it seems to be the "center" of the energy headed NNW. I think it going to take a couple days for anything to come together however.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is the thought right now this maybe a western GOM storm? I know no one knows for sure but it should depend on the steering currents. Is that correct?

Looks to be a blocking ridge over eastern Texas but moving west. Looks to be one over Western Florida as well. At least that's what I think I see on water vapor....using my untrained eyes of course. Well I was a radar guy (OS) in the Navy (retired now) and did spend some time looking at weather sat images.

No one's commenting yet but I'm sure they are all looking at this now. At least I hope they are....

I wouldn't pay much attention to JB. He's going to predict everything into the Western Gulf so his beginning of season predictions come true.



I guess when we have an invest and a recon and then that data is fed into the models we'll have a good idea then. I hope they're fueling planes as we write this. I'd be willing to bet that they are.

I am sorry, but that makes no sense. How does him forecasting something into the W. GOM make his beginning of season predictions come true? In order for that to happen, then the storm has to really do what he says! He is not just going to lie and say something is going into the W. GOM when he really thinks it's going elsewhere.

Sorry, just my opinion not really an accusation. He just seems to be more
entertainment to me. I guess that's why he keeps his job at accuweather.

Don't get me wrong. I enjoy being entertained. The Weather Channel is really just a lot of entertainment as well isn't it.

Got to pay for the air time somehow.

I do agree with you on TWC comment. They are just for entertainment IMO. Not very good weather forecasters (except the experts on the station).

[chrisnnavarre]

Sorry to vent chrisnnavarre. Your opinion is valid.

It's O.K. at least JB is saying something... I wonder why the Navy doesn't have an invest up yet. Looking at the visible that area really looks good this morning.

And another thing.... one computer program might be wrong but when several start seeing something, then it is something. Glad this thread was started. Only confirms my belief that storm2k is the best early warning system on the net.

[perk]

I second that, s2k gave me a two day heads up on Rita. I gave that heads up to a few people at work that i know. The rest has no interest, so they found out when the panic started.