Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

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Frank P
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#361 Postby Frank P » Sun Aug 20, 2006 1:55 pm

Senobia wrote:On this loop image, it looks like an eye formed by the 80 degree lat. marker. What say you?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html


no eye, just an area void of dense clouds...
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#362 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Aug 20, 2006 1:56 pm

hicksta wrote:What is the NAM showing
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#363 Postby Frank P » Sun Aug 20, 2006 1:58 pm

The SST maps that Rock posted are SCARY.... something gets cranking in the GOM, and the shear relaxes.... spells bad news... anywhere along the northern and eastern GOM.... heck anywhere in the GOM would be bad with those SSTs...
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#364 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 20, 2006 1:59 pm

Oh boy!

Appears to be snapping into cyclogenesis as we watch with banding and rapid, perfectly curved upper outflow. And this is just in the last hour. Surface feature has to be underneath in that situation.

Hit the alarm.
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#365 Postby ronjon » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:02 pm

Gotta hand it to wxman57 - he nailed this forecast two days ago!
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#366 Postby Frank P » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:02 pm

yeah you might be right, I've been watching it most of the morning and it only continues to look better with time... I'm hoping it will start falling off somewhat this afternoon but I'm not sure if there is anything that is going to affect it in a negative way for a while...
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#367 Postby Frank P » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:03 pm

appears to have a slow NNW drift to it at the moment, as best I can tell on the vis loops..
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#368 Postby ronjon » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:05 pm

Okay folks - anyone have an upper air forecast for the next 3-5 days? Where will the break in the ridge occur? This will be the key to the future track.
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#369 Postby rockyman » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:06 pm

NNW is probably right...based on the steering flow:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
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#370 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:06 pm

interesting that this area was jumped on by models friday, now it seems to have very little support since it is finally getting its act together. Anybody know why the models seemed to either lose this or flip the target zone to TX vs, LA, AL, MS NWFL? I am trying to decide if I should alarm my mom down on the MS coast...
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#371 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:07 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Senobia wrote:On this loop image, it looks like an eye formed by the 80 degree lat. marker. What say you?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
I don't see an eye, but I do see a rapidly organizing system.



no eye... :lol: not yet.....but I agree its getting together quickly...
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#372 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:09 pm

PTPatrick wrote:interesting that this area was jumped on by models friday, now it seems to have very little support since it is finally getting its act together. Anybody know why the models seemed to either lose this or flip the target zone to TX vs, LA, AL, MS NWFL? I am trying to decide if I should alarm my mom down on the MS coast...



need some more runs for model support....4-5 days away at least. Anyone from Brownville to FL needs to stay tuned....
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#373 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:09 pm

ronjon wrote:Gotta hand it to wxman57 - he nailed this forecast two days ago!



yep, no doubt he is at work right now....
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#374 Postby skysummit » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:09 pm

Nice outflow beginning...

Image
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#375 Postby gboudx » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:11 pm

PTPatrick wrote:interesting that this area was jumped on by models friday, now it seems to have very little support since it is finally getting its act together. Anybody know why the models seemed to either lose this or flip the target zone to TX vs, LA, AL, MS NWFL? I am trying to decide if I should alarm my mom down on the MS coast...


Unless she just stresses hard at the mere mention of a hurricane, it may not hurt to just mention it so she can begin preparing.
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#376 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:12 pm

From NOLA Disco:

IN ADDITION...THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME
VORT LOBES DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY TUE AND WED WITH THE RIDGE
SHIFTING WESTWARD.
THE SURFACE FRONT THEN LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY FRI
AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC BASIN TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ALSO LOOKS TO RETURN BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK ALTHOUGH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN PLAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

possibly NOLA area hoping the ridge would move west, which would push The carribean thing west...

BUT WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO
ALABAMA WHILE A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW ADVANCES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF...PROVIDING FOR AN EVEN MORE
FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PROFILE. AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGING RETREATS WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS OTHERWISE ARE
UNSUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. THE WEAKENING FRONT REMAINS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEAKENS INTO A SUBTLE SURFACE
TROF BY THURSDAY. THE WEAKENING LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN SHIFTS INTO
THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEAVING A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES. SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO
THE AREA RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS. WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING
IN THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WARMING ALOFT...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN JUSTIFIED ON THURSDAY. THE
TROF ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
SEA BREEZE INITIATED CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY. /29


Mobile saying similarly, ridge moves west....
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#377 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:12 pm

gboudx wrote:
PTPatrick wrote:interesting that this area was jumped on by models friday, now it seems to have very little support since it is finally getting its act together. Anybody know why the models seemed to either lose this or flip the target zone to TX vs, LA, AL, MS NWFL? I am trying to decide if I should alarm my mom down on the MS coast...


Unless she just stresses hard at the mere mention of a hurricane, it may not hurt to just mention it so she can begin preparing.



Debating, if I should call my boss on a Sunday to dust off, the ole Cane prep protocal......
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#378 Postby storm4u » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:15 pm

i say its a tropical storm by morning!
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#379 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:18 pm

Another thing that could play a role here is strength...if this thing were to do the unexpected and bomb over the next 48 hours, then the track senario across the yucatan and into TX may not hold. Seems like a stronger storms tend to get pulled north quicker...either way, this is looking more and more ominous as the day wears on. I hope that by 7:00 tonight we are all saying "so much for that, it was just a midday flareup in the carribean"...
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#380 Postby rockyman » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:18 pm

Couldn't the ridge moving west actually open up a hole between that high and the Bermuda high...and allow the storm to ride up the WEST side of the Bermuda high and into the Eastern Gulf?...By the way, the high is centered over Arkansas now:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
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