Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

Extremeweatherguy · #161 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:57 pm

Johnny wrote:Hey EWG, I guess Joe B. has pretty much written this one off?

no, he just hasn't posted about it yet today. I think he is still out of town/traveling.

#162 Postby **Steve** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:01 pm

What's been weird about waves travelling toward the EPAC this year is that the convection is only firing up at the extreme south (Central America) and extreme north (LA Coast) of their axis(es) when they get close to 90. This isn't any kind of split as is sometimes seen, but more just where the energy seems to be. You can watch it fire (if it stays south) up some seabreeze or whatever.

Steve

#163 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:12 pm

Nothing is mentioned about this again in TWO for 4:30pm.
Maybe because there is nothing there to be concerned about
to begin with.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on August 21, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Four...located over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean about 250 miles southeast of the southernmost Cape
Verde Islands.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Tuesday.
Public advisories on Tropical Depression Four are issued under WMO
header wtnt34 knhc and under AWIPS header miatcpat4.
Forecast/advisories on the depression are issued under WMO header
wtnt24 knhc and under AWIPS header miatcmat4.
$$
Forecaster landsea/Stewart

#164 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:18 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Johnny wrote:Hey EWG, I guess Joe B. has pretty much written this one off?
no, he just hasn't posted about it yet today. I think he is still out of town/traveling.

Hiding no doubt, cuz he once again missed the shot. Gest the Gulf States all interested in nothing- again. :roll:

Before I get jumped on by some JB follower, he did call this one wrong so far.

#165 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:20 pm

Lowpressure wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Johnny wrote:Hey EWG, I guess Joe B. has pretty much written this one off?
no, he just hasn't posted about it yet today. I think he is still out of town/traveling.

Hiding no doubt, cuz he once again missed the shot. Gest the Gulf States all interested in nothing- again.

Before I get jumped on by some JB follower, he did call this one wrong so far.

LOL...it's not over yet. The wave is still there. I'm by no means a JB follower, but why people tend to write off everything so quickly? That's a mystery that will never be understood.

By the way....WTH does "Gest" mean?

Extremeweatherguy · #166 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:22 pm

Lowpressure wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Johnny wrote:Hey EWG, I guess Joe B. has pretty much written this one off?
no, he just hasn't posted about it yet today. I think he is still out of town/traveling.

Hiding no doubt, cuz he once again missed the shot. Gest the Gulf States all interested in nothing- again.

Before I get jumped on by some JB follower, he did call this one wrong so far.

well since he never said something WOULD develop he didn't get it wrong. He gave this about the same potential as wxman57 did. So if JB got it wrong, so did wxman57.

However, something COULD still develop so we should not write this off yet.

#167 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:23 pm

Sorry, should have spell checked, meant to say GETS.
I am not writing this off at all, I just get a kick out of some who think JB is that good.

Extremeweatherguy · #168 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:25 pm

Lowpressure wrote:Sorry, should have spell checked, meant to say GETS.
I am not writing this off at all, I just get a kick out of some who think JB is that good.

well if your saying JB is not as good as any other pro met, then you are highly mistaken. He is no worse than any other met on this site and deserves to be treated with the same respect. His opinions should be treated as being just as valid.

#169 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:26 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Lowpressure wrote:Sorry, should have spell checked, meant to say GETS.
I am not writing this off at all, I just get a kick out of some who think JB is that good.
well if your saying JB is not as good as any other pro met, then you are highly mistaken. He is no worse than any other met on this site and deserves to be treated with the same respect. His opinions should be treated as being just as valid.

I personally totally agree with your post and I'm not a JB fan. I was once but not anymore.

#170 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:26 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Lowpressure wrote:Sorry, should have spell checked, meant to say GETS.
I am not writing this off at all, I just get a kick out of some who think JB is that good.
well if your saying JB is not as good as any other pro met, then you are highly mistaken. He is no worse than any other met on this site and deserves to be treated with the same respect. His opinions should be treated as being just as valid.

See what I mean.

#171 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:31 pm

I am not meaning any disrepect to JB. I find it amazing that some listen to him with baited breath. He is as others posted here, as good as any. Which the last two years has been difficult to predict. He makes wild predictions that occasionally come true, not just tropical, but winter weather as well. Take some credit when wrong, not just correct, that is what I am saying.

#172 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:33 pm

I think there's a significant faction of us that don't "write everything off". We just tend to not think every little blob is going to develop because the NAM, CMC, and JB say so. We tend to look for real evidence of development, persistence of the convection, and overall favorable conditions. This requires a little thing called patience , which is not an easy thing to acquire in the world of tropical weather.

We also tend to have been around long enough to realize when a pro met like Derek says "many will try; most will fail" he knows what he's talking about b/c we know - we were around before '04 and '05. Believe me, when the time comes, we'll definitely "perk up" and we'll be posting more. For now, there's just not a lot to say....

southerngale · #173 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:35 pm

If JB points out an area that could develop (as other mets have), he doesn't get it "wrong" if it doesn't develop. If he said this WOULD undoubtedly develop, then yes, he would get it wrong if it doesn't. That's not what he did.

Anyway, I don't think JB is hiding...that's simply foolish.

May I also remind you, from the BOARD RULES:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act professionally at all times.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=37

#174 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:37 pm

Not much to say? We have a nice depression in the far east Atlantic and an area of persistant convection in the western Carribean. We do have a little to discuss. What gets me is when thundestorms blossom and people think we'll have a TS in 24 hours or less, however, when they dissipate, the area is immediately written off by a lot of folks. That's hilarious. These systems pulse. It's part of the organization process. Sometimes that process builds and completes, and sometimes it just dies. Like you said...it's all in patience.

#175 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:40 pm

skysummit wrote:Not much to say? We have a nice depression in the far east Atlantic and an area of persistant convection in the western Carribean. We do have a little to discuss. What gets me is when thundestorms blossom and people think we'll have a TS in 24 hours or less, however, when they dissipate, the area is immediately written off by a lot of folks. That's hilarious. These systems pulse. It's part of the organization process. Sometimes that process builds and completes, and sometimes it just dies. Like you said...it's all in patience.

Dont forget that there is an interesting wave in the central atlantic.

#176 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:41 pm

Oh yea....and there's an interesting wave in the Central Atlantic!

#177 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:46 pm

skysummit wrote:Not much to say? We have a nice depression in the far east Atlantic and an area of persistant convection in the western Carribean. We do have a little to discuss.

I really meant that specifically towards this system...although I'm not too excited about TD#4 either just yet. We'll see on that one...

#178 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:47 pm

jschlitz wrote:I think there's a significant faction of us that don't "write everything off". We just tend to not think every little blob is going to develop because the NAM, CMC, and JB say so. We tend to look for real evidence of development, persistence of the convection, and overall favorable conditions. This requires a little thing called patience , which is not an easy thing to acquire in the world of tropical weather.

We also tend to have been around long enough to realize when a pro met like Derek says "many will try; most will fail" he knows what he's talking about b/c we know - we were around before '04 and '05. Believe me, when the time comes, we'll definitely "perk up" and we'll be posting more. For now, there's just not a lot to say....

My point exactly, you just said it much better, thanks jschlitz. BTW, I truly enjoy Derek, when he posts. Truly objective and he is here the next day whether right or wrong.

Johnny · #179 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:54 pm

Wow, wow and wow! lowpressure, no offense but do you think you could of refrained yourself by making a jab at JB? Is it really that hard?

My gosh, how many times has this been discussed???!!!! Let it rest people.

#180 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:57 pm

Johnny wrote:Wow, wow and wow! lowpressure, no offense but do you think you could of refrained yourself by making a jab at JB? Is it really that hard?

My gosh, how many times has this been discussed???!!!! Let it rest people.

Good point, let's watch the tropics! Sorry for the tangent.

Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

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