TD #4 East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Trugunzn]

looking better!!

[lester]

it looks pretty good now

[LAwxrgal]

It's going to recurve eventually... the question is where and when...

What if the ridge builds back in...they all do not recurve you know.

I'm aware that they all don't recurve this far out. Either the recurving happens out at sea or later after landfall somewhere...fact is it's going to happen eventually.

[storms in NC]

If and I mean if it stays weak, and or misses the ridge as in the Stewart 8/21/06 11am disco, where does TD4 go and what does it do?

Somewhere on the east coast. But we are have a lot of cool fronts and if we get a cool front it would push the TD4 out to sea. IMO

[Scorpion]

It should be a TS at 5.

[bob rulz]

It's going to recurve eventually... the question is where and when...

What if the ridge builds back in...they all do not recurve you know.

It could recurve in the U.S. for all we know...bottom line is is that it WILL recurve, whether it's in the middle of the ocean or over land...

[storms in NC]

Is there going to be a 2PM update?

[cycloneye]

Is there going to be a 2PM update?

No,because the TS warning was discontinued.

[SouthFloridawx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is my first Forecast for this system thus far. I will do a more in depth explination as to why I feel the way I do when I get home from work.

[KWT]

It still only has shallow convection mind you but the sturcture does look like a tropical storm. Still an upgrade to a weak tropical storm should be occuring soon.

[clfenwi]

TPNT KGWC 221810
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
B. 22/1731Z (69)
C. 13.8N/2
D. 26.6W/4
E. SIX/MET-8
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/21HRS -22/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON THE LOG10
SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.

AODT: N/A

CAPUTO


This should make the majority of the satellite estimates 2.5 - 35 knots, if not the unaminous consensus.

[bob rulz]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is my first Forecast for this system thus far. I will do a more in depth explination as to why I feel the way I do when I get home from work.

I don't like the looks of that southern track...it could pull an Andrew out there.

[wxwatcher91]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I actually have about the same idea...
http://keeneweather.blogspot.com/2006/0 ... tlook.html
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/5110 ... %232.0.jpg

P.S.
Bob Rulz, I don't think it will pull an Andrew by any mean... I still think it will recurve, but not so early... Perhaps a threat to Bermuda.

[MiamiensisWx]

Aren't the new BAM/BAMD (BAMM) model runs coming out soon within the next few hours?

[willjnewton]

do you all think that tropical depression four is now starting to take a northwest turn or remain westnorthwest??please explain okay thankyou

[willjnewton]

I hope and pray that this system remains on a more westward track though

[Grease Monkey]

I hope and pray that this system remains on a more westward track though

It would make tracking more interesing.

[willjnewton]

but is this system tracking westnorthwestward or northwest right now???

[clfenwi]

WHXX01 KWBC 221904
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR (AL042006) ON 20060822 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060822 1800 060823 0600 060823 1800 060824 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.2N 26.8W 15.7N 29.0W 17.2N 31.3W 18.8N 33.6W
BAMM 14.2N 26.8W 16.0N 29.1W 18.0N 31.5W 20.0N 33.8W
A98E 14.2N 26.8W 15.8N 29.9W 17.2N 32.7W 18.6N 35.3W
LBAR 14.2N 26.8W 15.9N 29.5W 17.7N 32.3W 19.3N 35.0W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS 45KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060824 1800 060825 1800 060826 1800 060827 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.6N 35.9W 24.2N 40.5W 28.0N 44.1W 31.7N 44.7W
BAMM 21.8N 36.2W 24.9N 40.5W 27.4N 44.1W 30.1N 46.1W
A98E 20.2N 37.8W 23.7N 43.2W 27.5N 47.9W 32.8N 48.7W
LBAR 20.8N 37.7W 24.1N 42.4W 28.1N 46.5W 31.3N 52.8W
SHIP 48KTS 53KTS 54KTS 57KTS
DSHP 48KTS 53KTS 54KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 26.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 23.9W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 21.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Grease Monkey]

hard for me to say, but it does appear to be moving slightly more North of a wnw track IMO.