Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[tailgater]

Canadian develops this and brings it just north of the Yucatan by 144 hrs. Both the Canadian and GFS erode the ridge across the Gulf Coast.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That's 2 runs for the CMC 's
Here's the Nogaps(not sure if this is the same system).
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/nogaps ... /slp24.png

[cycloneye]

How are the conditions in the ECAR?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Needs to stay farily far south to avoid the shear. Proximately to the South American coast may hinder development even if it did.

But Remember Ivan that moved thru the southern eastern caribbean sea and got stronger there despite South Americas cutting of inflow.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060823 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060823 1200 060824 0000 060824 1200 060825 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.5N 52.5W 10.6N 54.7W 10.8N 56.7W 11.1N 58.6W
BAMM 10.5N 52.5W 10.8N 55.0W 11.2N 57.3W 11.8N 59.3W
A98E 10.5N 52.5W 11.1N 56.0W 11.5N 59.1W 12.1N 61.8W
LBAR 10.5N 52.5W 11.0N 55.6W 11.5N 58.7W 12.0N 61.6W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060825 1200 060826 1200 060827 1200 060828 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.4N 60.3W 12.3N 63.8W 13.3N 67.7W 13.8N 72.1W
BAMM 12.5N 61.2W 13.9N 64.8W 15.5N 68.5W 16.5N 72.5W
A98E 12.7N 64.0W 13.9N 67.7W 15.4N 71.0W 17.2N 74.3W
LBAR 12.5N 64.7W 14.2N 70.2W 15.7N 74.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 39KTS 49KTS 58KTS 66KTS
DSHP 39KTS 49KTS 58KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 52.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 9.9N LONM12 = 48.7W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 45.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[tailgater]

Latest images

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/188.jpg

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/176.jpg
Anybody know what's up with GHCC site.

[HURAKAN]

Model plot


*edited by staff to make the image clickable - image a little too large

[Sanibel]

Don't know what the future is for a weak scattered system with an ill-defined circulation headed towards the shearing winds off South America? This one's center appears to be up in the upper-most convection burst.

Whatever is happening in the Atlantic this year - it is making quick work of systems that end up ghosts of organization with no storm beneath.

Effect reminds me of horizontal shear or subsidence.

[Blown Away]

For those out there like me that have issues with time!

http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/prepare/utc.htm

[O Town]

For those out there like me that have issues with time!

http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/prepare/utc.htm

I sure could have used that when I first joined but since then have figured out the 4 hour thing and just made a hand written table and have it sticky tacked on my monitor. I have to look at it ALL the time because my memory stinks.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

I don't know about you guys, but 97L already looks like a TD.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

I don't know about you guys, but 97L already looks like a TD.

According to what we know, there's no surface circulation as of now and the convection remains disorganized. No depression at the moment.

[MortisFL]

It's got some colder cloud tops today.

[GeneratorPower]

For those out there like me that have issues with time!

http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/prepare/utc.htm

I went to Wal-Mart and got a couple of small, digital alarm clocks. I set the time to UTC. They sit on my desk right next to my computer screen. I use them all the time.

Label them "UTC" with a nice labeler for added usefulness.

And please folks, I don't need a thousand responses telling me how my primitive way is stupid and I should just use "such and such" web application or something. If you don't like it, ignore it, or offer your suggestion.

[MortisFL]

For those out there like me that have issues with time!

http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/prepare/utc.htm

I went to Wal-Mart and got a couple of small, digital alarm clocks. I set the time to UTC. They sit on my desk right next to my computer screen. I use them all the time.

Label them "UTC" with a nice labeler for added usefulness.

And please folks, I don't need a thousand responses telling me how my primitive way is stupid and I should just use "such and such" web application or something. If you don't like it, ignore it, or offer your suggestion.

I dont think its stupid. You gave me a good idea.

[redmosquito]

For those out there like me that have issues with time!

http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/prepare/utc.htm

Hey cool thanks!

[Thunder44]

How are the conditions in the ECAR?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Needs to stay farily far south to avoid the shear. Proximately to the South American coast may hinder development even if it did.

But Remember Ivan that moved thru the southern eastern caribbean sea and got stronger there despite South Americas cutting of inflow.

Ivan was stronger had more favorable conditions to north, where it is was still able to get inflow. This will not.

[stormernie]

It statrting to look like this wont develop because of the simple fact that on this course and speed it will slam into South America..

Also, there is no LLC and the thunderstorm activity is racing westward away from what ever MLC there is.

[terstorm1012]

Blown_Away: That idea is AWESOME! I'm going to do the same!

[Air Force Met]

For those out there like me that have issues with time!

http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/prepare/utc.htm

I went to Wal-Mart and got a couple of small, digital alarm clocks. I set the time to UTC. They sit on my desk right next to my computer screen. I use them all the time.

Label them "UTC" with a nice labeler for added usefulness.

And please folks, I don't need a thousand responses telling me how my primitive way is stupid and I should just use "such and such" web application or something. If you don't like it, ignore it, or offer your suggestion.

There's always the ever faithful "addition" method.

Never needs batteries and doesn't require a download. Just add 5 hours to your time (since you are central) during CDT...and 6 during CST...and bingo...

there you are.

Of course...I've been going it for 20 years...I zulu in my sleep.

Easiest way to remember is this...during hurricane season...7am is 12Z (in the Central)...7Pm is 00Z. 1PM iz 18Z...10AM is 15Z...4PM is 21Z...

If you just memorize 4 or 5 main times...the rest will fall into place.

Of course...come standard time...it all gets messed up.

[skysummit]

Gen Power...that's a good idea. I think I'll do that today. It's much easier just to glance at a clock than add +5 or 6 to military time.

[Bailey1777]

AFM what's your opinion on this invest.? Waste of time or potential player?