Recon will tell what will happen

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cycloneye
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Recon will tell what will happen

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 15, 2003 6:33 am

When the recon plane gets in that area this afternoon and after the mission is completed we will know for sure what will happen with this system.As I type this post at 7:30 AM EDT there is an area of deep convection south of Jamaica but where exactly is the low is what recon will go to look for.What will happen today is a waiting game as they go in and report what they find in there about the low pressure and upper conditions and after that they will make the call and then the models can begin to forecast from where a low pressure may be located.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Jun 15, 2003 7:13 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby Toni - 574 » Sun Jun 15, 2003 6:45 am

Good morning to all!
The convection did die down over night, but is starting to flair up again as we speak. I think this is normal and the system is organizing. But like you said Cyc, we don't know any thing for certain until recon does go in. Can't wait to see what they find. Conditions should also improve for more development in the near future.

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY TO ALL!

TONI
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#3 Postby southerngale » Sun Jun 15, 2003 7:05 am

Very late last night, like about 6 hours ago, the convection had died down a lot but the center of rotation was quite evident. Now the convection seems to be starting to fire up again.

I've got a busy day and won't be in much today but I will be checking on our tropical friend when possible. ;)
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chadtm80

#4 Postby chadtm80 » Sun Jun 15, 2003 7:06 am

http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... _Recco.htm
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Derek Ortt

#5 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jun 15, 2003 7:21 am

I'd say 50/50 that recon will be cancelled based upon the pitiful appearance with non-persistent convection and no banding. This was much better organized yesterday afternoon
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ColdFront77

#6 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Jun 15, 2003 12:22 pm

The convection associated with this system weakened after midnight, but flared up near the center toward dawn.

I wouldn't call this poorly organized... just not what a tropical disturbance should like to be classified a tropical depression quite yet.
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