Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

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canecaster
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#321 Postby canecaster » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:15 am

Is it normal for the floater sat pics to be 2 hours old?
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#322 Postby Cape Verde » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:16 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The Gfs 200 millibar maps shows the tutt moving to 75-77 west in 24 hours.


I keep seeing mentions of "tutt" or "TUTT". I've tried to guess what that means, but I'm failing.

Can someone explain? Thanks.
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Re: hi

#323 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:17 am

Dave C wrote:Latest Infrared loop shows the deep convection is not moving as quickly to the west as earlier as the shear impacts the system. There is the typical sharp edge to the west part of the convection from the shear while the east part has a more rounded appearence. This will definately need to be a fighter to survive today.


I hope it's not and turns out to be just another Chris. I like what I'm seeing so far this morning but tropical systems are known to throw curve balls at you.
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#324 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:18 am

canecaster wrote:Is it normal for the floater sat pics to be 2 hours old?


Mine's not. The latest image should be 12:45z.....30 minutes old.
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#325 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:18 am

gatorcane wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:Looks like the Gfdl has this system coming pretty close or going right over the Florida Keys


if that track were to verify easter cooba could do a great deal of damabge to the system. i suspect this system will stay south of cooba.


If it makes there in one piece.


once the system made it back over the warm Florida straits it would take no time to regenerate. You can't rely on Cuba saving Florida...its a small island albeit with large mountains on the eastern side.


whoaa nellie, we are getting way ahead of ourselves, it has to survive the trip, it has to find a weakness to get that far north, it has to stay over water with minimal disruptian from cooba and we these UL lowes which seem to be the feature of the season and are always very hard to predict have to stay far enough away.
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#326 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:18 am

TPNT KGWC 251300
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
B. 25/1131Z (71)
C. 13.4N/8
D. 64.6W/6
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/STT: D1.0/12HRS -25/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON
THE LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 2.5.
FT IS BASED ON DT. PT SUPPORTS.

AODT: 3.0 (UCCR)

PRATO/WEAVER



Air Force Sat Estimates
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#327 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:19 am

Cape Verde wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The Gfs 200 millibar maps shows the tutt moving to 75-77 west in 24 hours.


I keep seeing mentions of "tutt" or "TUTT". I've tried to guess what that means, but I'm failing.

Can someone explain? Thanks.



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html


See that area of lighter shear inbetween the two increases at about 78 west. Which is kind of like a V over the central Caribbean. That is a tutt. Which should be moving westward in weaking.
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hi

#328 Postby Dave C » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:19 am

It's a trough in the upper levels common in the west atlantic extending into the Carrabean.
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#329 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:20 am

gatorcane wrote:
Bailey1777 wrote:I didn't mean landfall thoughts I meant why the models are changing by thousands of miles in a very short period.


What do you expect there is no center yet. How can the models be consistent without an initialization (in computer terms uninitialized variables cause random behavior).

That track will probably flip-flop back and forth so don't go by that track quite yet.


WHAT?

You don't get to be a TD without having a center. Remember the vortex message yesterday? That means there is a center.
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#330 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:22 am

Cape Verde wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The Gfs 200 millibar maps shows the tutt moving to 75-77 west in 24 hours.


I keep seeing mentions of "tutt" or "TUTT". I've tried to guess what that means, but I'm failing.

Can someone explain? Thanks.


GOOGLE.

:lol:
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#331 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:23 am

The 12z BAMs show a potent ridge again....they've flipped back to the west.

Image
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#332 Postby wjs3 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:24 am

Air Force Met wrote:
Cape Verde wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The Gfs 200 millibar maps shows the tutt moving to 75-77 west in 24 hours.


I keep seeing mentions of "tutt" or "TUTT". I've tried to guess what that means, but I'm failing.

Can someone explain? Thanks.


GOOGLE.

:lol:


Also, there's a new forum here "Got a question..." Someone already asked tihs question there. YOu might go take a look over there at the answer and ask some clrifying questions if it doesn't make sense.
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#333 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:24 am

skysummit wrote:LOL....these posts are getting hilarious. Half the board is saying this will have a hard time surving the shear today and the other half says it's getting better organized with high pressure building aloft.


Hell, I don't know what it's doing anymore, although I have seen plenty of systems in the past overcome shear, it's happened alot....
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#334 Postby Lindaloo » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:24 am

I hope that one verifies, Scott. I hate it for those folks but since this is just a depression, they should be okay.
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#335 Postby canecaster » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:25 am

skysummit wrote:
canecaster wrote:Is it normal for the floater sat pics to be 2 hours old?


Mine's not. The latest image should be 12:45z.....30 minutes old.



I think the current UTC is 14:22, while the latest image is 12:15, wouldn't that be 2 hors old
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#336 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:26 am

skysummit wrote:The 12z BAMs show a potent ridge again....they've flipped back to the west.

Image


wow, guess a Mexico storm it is...I didn't think the ridge would be that strong. Well, let's hope it doesn't hit the populated areas on the mexican coast IF it does develop.
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#337 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:26 am

Looks like it has decided to try and plow it's way through shear, question is can it survive?
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#338 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:26 am

25/1145 UTC 13.6N 66.1W T2.5/2.5 05L -- Atlantic Ocean
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#339 Postby sevenleft » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:28 am

Bailey1777 wrote:Looks like it has decided to try and plow it's way through shear, question is can it survive?
I don't think it is being affected yet. By later today and tonight tho, it may have some issues.
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#340 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:29 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The wall of shear is at 72 west...With a Anticyclone forming over the system now. 10-20 knots decrease over system. 10 knot area increasing in size. The gfs shows this wall going to 77 west by 24 hours. If this slow system slow down then this will get its act together.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html


Matt's scenario certianly seems plausible. Looking at the relative motions of the synoptic features, it makes sense over 24-36 hours. Everything depends on speed. If the slower motion keeps TD5 in the "pocket" long enough, the quicker development i.e. increasing height of the system woudl play heavily on the models tracking. We would also be talking about a more dangerous scenario of a stronger storm on a more northerly track.

Of course, another change in speed might have this system resemble an egg in a blender
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