Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread
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the_winds_that_sheared_me
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The first thoughtful, accurate discussion I have read from Accuweather on this storm...
"Ernesto is not what you would call your classic tropical storm. The system is encountering strong upper level winds which are flowing over the top of the system from southwest to northeast. This is causing the thunderstorms to form just east or southeast of the storm's lower level center. A hurricane hunter aircraft found winds of 40-45 mph and a pressure low enough to call this a tropical storm. However, the overall structure of the storm will have to become better organized for this to strengthen. An upper level low west of this system over the western Caribbean is causing the strong upper level westerly wind. This upper level low is now expected to weaken and move west at a faster pace. That means the strong upper level winds causing the shear over Ernesto should relax during this weekend. The tropical storm is also tracking over water that is not warm through a great depth. Deep warm water usually helps storms to become stronger quicker. Ernesto will track over much deeper warmer water and that should help cause the storm to become stronger. So, Ernesto's immediate future hinges mostly on the amount of shear. Future track forecasts from various computer models show Ernesto near Jamaica on Sunday, near western Cuba or over the Yucatan Channel by Tuesday then in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. After that computer model information gives various scenarios for future movement. Those options take Ernesto either due north or more to the west. Since this system is so disorganized at this point the computer model output could change quite a bit as this system becomes better organized and intensifies. A lower and mid level high pressure area over the Southeast U.S. is expected to be the key player in how this system moves early next week. If it stays over the southeast U.S. and remains strong then Ernesto will track more to the west or northwest. If this high pressure area weakens Ernesto will track more to the north and perhaps north northeast. "
"Ernesto is not what you would call your classic tropical storm. The system is encountering strong upper level winds which are flowing over the top of the system from southwest to northeast. This is causing the thunderstorms to form just east or southeast of the storm's lower level center. A hurricane hunter aircraft found winds of 40-45 mph and a pressure low enough to call this a tropical storm. However, the overall structure of the storm will have to become better organized for this to strengthen. An upper level low west of this system over the western Caribbean is causing the strong upper level westerly wind. This upper level low is now expected to weaken and move west at a faster pace. That means the strong upper level winds causing the shear over Ernesto should relax during this weekend. The tropical storm is also tracking over water that is not warm through a great depth. Deep warm water usually helps storms to become stronger quicker. Ernesto will track over much deeper warmer water and that should help cause the storm to become stronger. So, Ernesto's immediate future hinges mostly on the amount of shear. Future track forecasts from various computer models show Ernesto near Jamaica on Sunday, near western Cuba or over the Yucatan Channel by Tuesday then in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. After that computer model information gives various scenarios for future movement. Those options take Ernesto either due north or more to the west. Since this system is so disorganized at this point the computer model output could change quite a bit as this system becomes better organized and intensifies. A lower and mid level high pressure area over the Southeast U.S. is expected to be the key player in how this system moves early next week. If it stays over the southeast U.S. and remains strong then Ernesto will track more to the west or northwest. If this high pressure area weakens Ernesto will track more to the north and perhaps north northeast. "
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Stormcenter
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