TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[TexasSam]

The "feathery" appearance is the cirrus outflow from the storm. Notice how it is oriented radially outward from the center of the convection area? That indicates a large amount of upper-level divergence. There is still shear, but the convection is so intense that some of the outflow is fighting against it on the west side. The same thing happens in continental thunderstorms in regions of high shear; you can get what are called "backsheared" anvils that flow against the environmental winds at upper levels. It's one indication of an intense updraft.

thanks for that answer. So this may actually be a sign it is holding it's own?

Yes, the LLC, as far as I can tell, is just under the edge of the outflow from the convection on the NW side. So, it's holding it's own and may even be intensifying slightly at the time being. The shear ahead of it is still pretty robust, but has been decreasing steadily all day:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

I'd say this has a pretty good chance of holding together.

So it could be pushing other weather away and as I have heard before, " creating it's own enviroment"?

[PTPatrick]

0Z CMC headed right at Atachafalaya Bay on a Northward trajectory...ie...turning in response to front/weakness.

[Mac]

I don't think this storm is anywhere near strong enough to be creating its own environment yet. I've only seen that with very powerful storms...Cat 5 canes.

[Extremeweatherguy]

According to another thread, the NOGAPS has shifted well west of it's earlier recurve idea and now shows a hit somewhere near MS (as compared to the FL big bend at 18Z).

[Stormcenter]

Here's the new GFS from 00Z..It's aiming at New Orleans. Notice the weakness between the 2 highs..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif

Where is it on that map?

[jasons2k]

I think that "creating its own environment" stuff is mostly hype

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here's the new GFS from 00Z..It's aiming at New Orleans. Notice the weakness between the 2 highs..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif

Where is it on that map?

This is also for next Thursday night KFDM. If the NHC speed is correct it should already be much further west at that point.

[Wthrman13]

So it could be pushing other weather away and as I have heard before, " creating it's own enviroment"?

Only in the weakest sense of the term. Only the very strongest hurricanes can have much of an effect on shear zones and such associated with the synoptic scale flow pattern surrounding them, and even they are surprisingly fragile when it comes to sustained shear or dry air entrainment.

In other words, Ernesto is not suddenly going to muscle the UL out of the way and keep the shear at bay or anything. The UL is moving westward due almost entirely to it's own dynamical evolution.

[miamicanes177]

00Z CMC...watch out NO, LA!
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

[ronjon]

Oh no NOLA - the 00z CMC looks very similar to another storm last year.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Mac]

I think that "creating its own environment" stuff is mostly hype

Nope. Saw it a couple of times last year with the Cat 5 storms. However, creating its own environment has its limitations. Any hurricane can still be cut to shreds by shear and no hurricane is a match for a high pressure system. However, the really big and powerful canes do become extremely efficient machine-like mechanisms that take what they need from the environment and they can survive dry air entrainment and such much easier--especially once they go annular. Edited to add: That's not to say that they are unaffected by dry air. But some of those monsters last year would hit dry air and just mix it into their outflow and spit it back out...without really affecting the storm.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Well as had been mentioned the feathering is an indication of intense updrafts inside the cyclone. This could be an indication of strengthening coming up. I hope not though as the gulf does not need another hit. But I am afraid that is what will happen though.

[Stormcenter]

I see "maybe" a trend here with models. They seem to be shifting eastward somewhat we each new run.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Thursday Night/friday Morning 12 AM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150l.gif

[PTPatrick]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156s.gif

Better pic o GFS...headed right at MS coast on day 7...man we have a long to watch this sucker...GFS also doesnt have much a low there, althoug I am aware that GFS doesnt work like other models and would never have a 950 MB low on its map

[Grease Monkey]

so I guess florida will be in the cone 12 hours from now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00Z CMC...watch out NO, LA!
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

wow. Scary path there for SW and Central LA! But just so you know...the link to the bottom of the top link is for the 12Z run and not 0Z.


BTW:this has shifted westward too! Earlier it was making landfall on the FL panhandle.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I see "maybe" a trend here with models. They seem to be shifting eastward somewhat we each new run.

no..not at all.

In fact, the CMC and NOGAPS have all shifted westward with their 0Z runs.

[curtadams]

I think the storm is trying to come together...bringing the heart of the convection over the LLC. Watch that loop. Look at the very cold cloud tops popping on the NW quad by the LLC.

Yes, disturbing. I think the mid-shear has relaxed to almost nothing and convective chimney is nearly vertical to well above 500 mb. Above that the upper shear continues to intensify and the CDO is getting pushed back. But is conditions are anywhere near as intense inside as they were earlier he's continuing to intensify at a good clip. 85Ghz imagery indicates he's full of hail - a frightening thought.

[rockyman]

Maybe we are seeing a "narrowing" of the spread? The western models are shifting east and the eastern models are shifting west? I've not researched this...but the field of landfall candidates appears to be shrinking (and New Orleans is still in play)