Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1
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cycloneye
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Aquawind wrote:No upper air sampling missions planned yet. Kind of surprised..Not even planned yet.. That's gotta change soon.
Let's see if todays plan of the day has those upper air missions.
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WindRunner
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I feel they likely would as today's POD will be scheduling the missions for when the storm is around Jamaica and beyond, and they'll want to give the models a good init before having to a) have it enter the GOM and b) have to make a landfall forecast. I would expect two NOAA missions on this POD, for Monday morning and Monday evening.
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Brent
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wjs3 wrote:I just went to the NHC to see what the plan of the day was...wondering when next recon will be in and wondering if a gulfstream synoptic flight is going anytime soon, but the plan of the day is still from Thursday. Can someone teach me how to get a more updated one?
Here is today's plan(it was written yesterday therefore it's listed under "For Tomorrow")
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 25 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-087
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 26/1800,27/0000Z A. 27/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0405A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0505A CYCLONE
C. 26/1515Z C. 27/0300Z
D. 15.4N 72.3W D. 16.4N 74.8W
E. 26/1700Z TO 27/0000Z E. 27/0500Z TO 27/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
REMAINS A THREAT.
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Brent
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006
...ERNESTO CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN...NEW
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.
INTERESTS IN ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...405 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 420 MILES...680 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF ERNESTO SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY...AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEAR
JAMAICA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS JAMAICA. ACROSS PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO
MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.1 N...71.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006
...ERNESTO CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN...NEW
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.
INTERESTS IN ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...405 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 420 MILES...680 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF ERNESTO SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY...AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEAR
JAMAICA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS JAMAICA. ACROSS PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO
MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.1 N...71.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#neversummer
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Brent
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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1500 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.
INTERESTS IN ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 71.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 71.2W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 70.6W
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.8N 73.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.4N 78.1W...OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.9N 80.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.5N 84.0W...OVER WESTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 24.5N 87.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 27.0N 88.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 71.2W
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1500 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.
INTERESTS IN ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 71.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 71.2W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 70.6W
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.8N 73.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.4N 78.1W...OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.9N 80.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.5N 84.0W...OVER WESTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 24.5N 87.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 27.0N 88.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 71.2W
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cycloneye
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cycloneye
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http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tro ... OUS42.KNHC
The latest plan of the day includes the gulfstream jet at the 28th.
The latest plan of the day includes the gulfstream jet at the 28th.
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HurricaneHunter914
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Right now it seems like the trend is eastward.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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