T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[Bailey1777]

Watch the loops. AFM help me here.

[ConvergenceZone]

Ask the pro's. It's moving just north of West.

Yea, it will probably shift more north of west later. I still don't think Texas is out of the woods yet. Mexico is out of the woods, but probably not Texas..

[storms in NC]

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF ERNESTO SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR JAMAICA ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEAR
JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


It is going WNW this is by NHC

[gotoman38]

I see we have disagreements between the pro mets

LOL

Yeah.... I'm scratching my noggin on this one too... esp since NO RECON on this mission.

I see convection following (lagging) on the E of LLC.... but.... I'm just an amateur observer.

(East of LLC, not ouest)

[Blown Away]

It's gone from Mexico to Texas to Louisiana to FL Panhandle. Is there any chance this could eventually be a SE FL problem. Not -removed- just wondering if the chances are increasing each day??

[The Sandcrab]

EWG, Victoria is well inland, do you mean Port O'Connor?

[raynpa]

I think this storm is about to get its act together....its taking on a more rounded shape and convection is firing. Might be a hurricane at 11 tonight.

[BonesXL]

It's gone from Mexico to Texas to Louisiana to FL Panhandle. Is there any chance this could eventually be a SE FL problem. Not -removed- just wondering if the chances are increasing each day??

By the time its all done it may be a mexico problem texas and louisiana problem...with the way the models have been going...look a clock...

[StormTracker]

Everyone needs to remember something!!! When Katrina came through my neighborhood, went south of me and exited S. Fla off of Krome Ave., I was trying to figure out what was going on being that she wasn't supposed to go that route(the route that was plotted by biggest & baddest computers at the NHC!(nothing against them)! When I lost power and called my brother in Tampa, he reluctantly informs me that the eye of Katrina was passing over me(that's why the sudden quietness & tranquility over my house)! Sure maybe it could explained after the fact, but, my bottom line is, we can guess, assume, predict and use all the guidance tools in the world(computers only know what we put into them), but, there is a HIGHER AUTHORITY that controls everything that happens!!! You never know what could happen next! Just a little snack for thought...SC

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG, Victoria is well inland, do you mean Port O'Connor?

yes. though I still consider it close to the coast (as I do Houston and other cities within 50 miles of the ocean).

[jusforsean]

It's gone from Mexico to Texas to Louisiana to FL Panhandle. Is there any chance this could eventually be a SE FL problem. Not -removed- just wondering if the chances are increasing each day??

Good question , I wonder too.???????????

[Portastorm]

From the experts at HPC ... notice the wide swath they identify ... the jury is still out:

...GULF COAST...
ASSUMING T.S. ERNESTO REACHES THE DAY 5 TPC POSITION AND STRENGTH..A LANDFALL COULD OCCUR FRI OR SAT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST. POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE CONDS FROM NE TX TO THE WRN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. LT STEERING CURRENTS AT H500 AND H200 INDICATE THE SYSTEM TURNING EWD BUT SLOWLY AFTER LANDFALL WITH HVY RAIN POTENTIAL DAYS 6-8.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the experts at HPC ... notice the wide swath they identify ... the jury is still out:

...GULF COAST...
ASSUMING T.S. ERNESTO REACHES THE DAY 5 TPC POSITION AND STRENGTH..A LANDFALL COULD OCCUR FRI OR SAT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST. POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE CONDS FROM NE TX TO THE WRN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. LT STEERING CURRENTS AT H500 AND H200 INDICATE THE SYSTEM TURNING EWD BUT SLOWLY AFTER LANDFALL WITH HVY RAIN POTENTIAL DAYS 6-8.

uh-oh. they called it "NE" Texas instead of "SE". I guess Lufkin can expect to see some hurricane force winds next week!

[WxGuy1]

It's gone from Mexico to Texas to Louisiana to FL Panhandle. Is there any chance this could eventually be a SE FL problem. Not -removed- just wondering if the chances are increasing each day??

I'm not sure I'd say that. Most people do not think that Florida is the biggest threat right now, myself included. At this time, I'd say that anywhere from the far eastern coast of Texas to the central Florida panhandle has near equal chances of seeing landfall. As many have said, the models will continue to shift, especially considering the fact that this is certainly a developing system.

I wouldn't read too much into wobbles yet. Yes, deviations from a forecast track now will translate into landfall changes down the road, but weaker cyclones (e.g. TDs and TSs) tend to be quite sensitive to bursts of convection affecting the motion of the LLC. A significant burst on the south side of the LLC may 'drag' the center a little southward temporarily, and there's no easy way for us to anticipate such events. Global models certainly are not going to be able to resolves these small bursts, so I'm not giving much weight to any model forecast at this time (at least until convection surrounds the LLC).

[ConvergenceZone]

It's gone from Mexico to Texas to Louisiana to FL Panhandle. Is there any chance this could eventually be a SE FL problem. Not -removed- just wondering if the chances are increasing each day??

By the time its all done it may be a mexico problem texas and louisiana problem...with the way the models have been going...look a clock...

I don't see ANYTHING that will bring this storm into Mexico now. Usually 1 of the dynamic models would be pointing in that direction if that were so, and even if they were, I wouldn't believe them at this point. If there was a blocking ridge protecting all of the gulf states, then it probably would be a Mexico problem. Originally I had thought a Mexico storm too, but after looking at all of the maps, no way...

[elarson1974]

odd...they did it again...check this link out:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ER ... hics.shtml

they issued a graphic at 11am, and now it's not there...so the 11pm from friday nite and the 11am from saturday are not in the archive

maybe this is normal?

[BonesXL]

I'm not sure I'd say that. Most people do not think that Florida is the biggest threat right now, myself included. At this time, I'd say that anywhere from the far eastern coast of Texas to the central Florida panhandle has near equal chances of seeing landfall. As many have said, the models will continue to shift, especially considering the fact that this is certainly a developing system.

I wouldn't read too much into wobbles yet. Yes, deviations from a forecast track now will translate into landfall changes down the road, but weaker cyclones (e.g. TDs and TSs) tend to be quite sensitive to bursts of convection affecting the motion of the LLC. A significant burst on the south side of the LLC may 'drag' the center a little southward temporarily, and there's no easy way for us to anticipate such events. Global models certainly are not going to be able to resolves these small bursts, so I'm not giving much weight to any model forecast at this time (at least until convection surrounds the LLC).

Weel Said WxGuy1...we have to remember its still very weak storm yet and subject to many wobbles and directions...but its also important for all of us in the gulf states to have our preparations in order..

[weatherrabbit_tx]

From the experts at HPC ... notice the wide swath they identify ... the jury is still out:

...GULF COAST...
ASSUMING T.S. ERNESTO REACHES THE DAY 5 TPC POSITION AND STRENGTH..A LANDFALL COULD OCCUR FRI OR SAT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST. POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE CONDS FROM NE TX TO THE WRN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. LT STEERING CURRENTS AT H500 AND H200 INDICATE THE SYSTEM TURNING EWD BUT SLOWLY AFTER LANDFALL WITH HVY RAIN POTENTIAL DAYS 6-8.

uh-oh. they called it "NE" Texas instead of "SE". I guess Lufkin can expect to see some hurricane force winds next week!

I have seen when they mention alicia they say north texas and carla central texas, I'm sure they mean coast.......but who knows

[Brent]

odd...they did it again...check this link out:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ER ... hics.shtml

they issued a graphic at 11am, and now it's not there...so the 11pm from friday nite and the 11am from saturday are not in the archive

maybe this is normal?

The 2am and 2pm tracks are the same as 11pm and 11am. Just the initial position changed.

[Bailey1777]

Amen. Like I said let's focus on the here and now because this is real time.