T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[Extremeweatherguy]

That trend of the latest SFWMD model plots is disturbing. Are all the models based off the GFS? & what about the FSU Supermodel?? The NHC mentioned it in there 11AM discussion as it also had shifted to the east. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

I probably shouldn't have said "all" the easterly shifts -- but the GFDL and GFDN are based off the latest GFS run. Not sure what the AVNO is thinking though.

The FSU Superensemble is a blend of all the different global models, I think, and is very hard to acquire if not a pro met.

May I ask why do think they will point to La. tomorrow?

Just because the models are still fluctuating significantly this far out. I could have said MS or TX -- didn't mean to pinpoint a state, but to illustrate another possible fluctuation in model "consensus".

Arn't the AVN and GFS the same thing?

[mtm4319]

Right over the loop, which is hotter then it was last year.

Matt - do you have a graph comparing 2005 to 2006?

Here is yesterday's heat content map compared with the same day last year:
2006
2005

[ROCK]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[fci]

NWS-Miami notes the GFS with skepticism too:

"Think the GFS is a little wet considering that the
latest GFS brings Ernesto much closer to South Florida which now
looks like an outlier"

[Portastorm]

The 12z ECMWF shows a FL Panhandle landfall, although the motion once it gets into the Gulf is slooooooow....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

At least the Euro makes synoptic sense based on the upper level fields it is forecasting.

Lovely. A slow moving hurricane in the Gulf... just what everyone needs.

As I said earlier it's going to be a looooooooooooooooooooong upcoming week for everyone from Texas to FL.

I'm not sure this board can take a slow-moving hurricane in Gulf. Oh Lord ...

[BonesXL]

Wow...just saw the models...what is the 5:00pm NHC advisory/track going to look like?

[ROCK]

Wow...just saw the models...what is the 5:00pm NHC advisory/track going to look like?

let me guess RIGHT shift.....

[rnbaida]

It looks like the system will pass right through the middle of cuba hit somwhere in west florida or alabama.

[gatorcane]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

I think it is fair to say that anybody from Texas to Key West should be watching this thing (that includes you folks on the West Coast of Florida).

Mets would you not agree?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow...just saw the models...what is the 5:00pm NHC advisory/track going to look like?

depends on how much the NHC trusts the GFS.

[PTrackerLA]

Well things look a little better for Louisiana. I'm quite surprised by the model shifts but it's hard to ignore them. Of course there's still plenty of time and I know the model runs will change again.

[storms in NC]

The middle one

[Scorpion]

Panhandle to Big Bend it looks like for now. Brings it much closer to home.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Grease Monkey]

think it could start taking more of a wilma track once it gets to the gulf?

[ROCK]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

I think it is fair to say that anybody from Texas to Key West should be watching this thing (that includes you folks on the West Coast of Florida).

Mets would you not agree?

not a met but what a shift....they shift east anymore then its out to sea for Ernie....now that wouldnt be a bad thing.....

BTW- I do not think that will happen.....so don't flame me...thanks

[clfenwi]

(snipped a layer of quotes)

I probably shouldn't have said "all" the easterly shifts -- but the GFDL and GFDN are based off the latest GFS run. Not sure what the AVNO is thinking though.

The FSU Superensemble is a blend of all the different global models, I think, and is very hard to acquire if not a pro met.



Just because the models are still fluctuating significantly this far out. I could have said MS or TX -- didn't mean to pinpoint a state, but to illustrate another possible fluctuation in model "consensus".

Arn't the AVN and GFS the same thing?

Yes, AVNO is the tech identifier for the GFS...
ref: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/atcf/techlist.dat

[Damar91]

I wouldn't worry, though, certain posters say that there is no way this is hitting the Florida peninsula.

[Stormcenter]

Well things look a little better for Louisiana. I'm quite surprised by the model shifts but it's hard to ignore them. Of course there's still plenty of time and I know the model runs will change again.

Don't celebrate just yet this thing is not even in the GOM and if it slows down then anything can happen.

[gatorcane]

looks like it could be an Eastern GOM problem with the new runs, obviously early to say but what a shift here.

Notice the BAMS miss the weakness to the north completely. They don't pick up on shortwaves easily.