WRF-ARW forecast for Ernesto

[Stratosphere747]

WxGuy...

I'll dig up the info. But this model was ran on 5 or six storms last year, and from what I remember, it was clearly the best.

With that said. It's such an outlier right now, not sure how viable it is.

Now if Ernesto misses Hispainola and stays underneath Cuba all day Sunday, then it might be time to take a closer look at it.

[Rouster]

First, this isn't intended for anyone in particular.
But, I've been watching these models for a few years now. Along with all the experts who do a wonderful job.
The only problem is that things change. Too many people seem to come on here and take everything as absolute. There are no absolutes when it comes to hurricanes that are still 5+ days away. Even the NHC as good as they are, are still going off of these models.

All that being said, anyone and everyone from Tx to Fla needs to be prepared. The models can and will jump some from West to East over the next couple of days. They did the exact same thing with Katrina and Rita. They'll do the same with Ernie.

[jasons2k]

I'm not a singular model person, and this one is an outlier for now.

I'll give it a few benchmarks and see where it is at relative to Jamaica and Cuba. Otherwise, I'd take it with a grain of salt...

Yeah, I'm going to do the same. I'll be really curious to see how Ernesto tracks around the periphery of Cuba as depicted here. On thing though - even though it's an older run, it has nailed E's path - even the northerly position - to a tee for the day. Interesting......

[HouTXmetro]

Well the NAM and BAM models are officially not outliers anymore with this revelation. The plot thickens.

[Stratosphere747]

FWIW...

Across some of the other tropical boards. This model is now being mentioned and "looked at" a bit more.

As mentioned in another thread here. The NOAA data can't get here soon enough...

[HouTXmetro]

Well the NAM and BAM models are officially not outliers anymore with this revelation. The plot thickens.

I met add this is in ADDITION to discussions we have been hearing from pro mets across the board who didn't buy this weak ridge solution.

[ROCK]

FWIW...

Across some of the other tropical boards. This model is now being mentioned and "looked at" a bit more.

As mentioned in another thread here. The NOAA data can't get here soon enough...

Yep, for some reason this model has been overlooked? Spreading like wildfire across the forums I have up right now...

[jasons2k]

FWIW...
Across some of the other tropical boards. This model is now being mentioned and "looked at" a bit more.
As mentioned in another thread here. The NOAA data can't get here soon enough...

Yep, for some reason this model has been overlooked? Spreading like wildfire across the forums I have up right now...

Yes, I'm seeing the same thing. The concering thing is that the pro mets that are chiming-in are saying this one makes synoptic sense, unlike the GFS and its underlings.

[Rieyeuxs]

Question. Has the new run on this model made the eastern shift with the others? If someone could post me a graphic, that'd be cool!

[Stratosphere747]

Question. Has the new run on this model made the eastern shift with the others? If someone could post me a graphic, that'd be cool!

It has changed from yesterday, no doubt. Not as far east as the others though.

http://wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_hurricane12.php

[bayoubebe]

Question. Has the new run on this model made the eastern shift with the others? If someone could post me a graphic, that'd be cool!

It has changed from yesterday, no doubt. Not as far east as the others though.

http://wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_hurricane12.php

I got this, when I clicked that:

Internet Explorer cannot display the webpage

Most likely causes:
You are not connected to the Internet.
The website is encountering problems.
There might be a typing error in the address.

edit: *it's working now*

[BayouVenteux]

From what I've heard and read the WRF has had a particularly good track record in the +48 to +72 hr timeframe of developed hurricanes. It did well with Rita and Katrina last year IIRC. Given that Ernesto wasn't quite a hurricane at the time this most recent model run was initialized (0z, 8/27/06, I guess you'd have to take it w/a grain of salt.

If you'd like to take a gander: http://wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_hurricane12.php

At +48 hrs, Ernesto is depicted over south central Cuba as a 987mb system.

At +72 hrs, it's around the the northwestern tip of Cuba (in the general vicinity of NW of Isla de Juventad, for orientation)

and FWIW, the WRF depicts Ernesto in the eastern Gulf due west of FMY/due south of FWB at +120 (from the 0z init)

[Rieyeuxs]

I just ran the model and at 92 hours is when the sharp turn begins. 6Big dramatic change!!!

[Rieyeuxs]

And now, the model's shifted westward again...

[SouthFloridawx]

And now, the model's shifted westward again...

What models shifted westward?

[Rieyeuxs]

Look at this link:

http://wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_hurricane12.php

[SouthFloridawx]

Look at this link:

http://wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_hurricane12.php

That is the 12Z forecast from earlier today. Not sure if you noticed that. The current run you should be looking at is the 00Z for the 28th.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Look at this link:

http://wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_hurricane12.php

That is the 12Z forecast from earlier today. Not sure if you noticed that. The current run you should be looking at is the 00Z for the 28th.

That may take all night.... today's 12Z was posted well after 7pm when I last checked.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

WRF is a terrible tropical model. Just my opinion.

[WxGuy1]

WRF is a terrible tropical model. Just my opinion.

Which one? There are a ton of WRF models being run and provided online? The NCEP WRF(-NMM)? The 12km WRF-ARW run by NCAR? The 4km WRF-ARW?