Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[Extremeweatherguy]

This system seems to be just sitting still or drifting ever so slowly west right now. Also, it looks less organized than earlier this morning. The recon mission should be interesting.

[Scorpion]

By the way, I see a more westerly component in Ernesto's motion that I have not seen today.

This thing is so disorganized its really hard to pin it down which is also why the models are bouncing all over the place.

Are you kidding? Disorganized? The core is right there in plain view, and its practically all red. Center is in the middle of that. Hardly disorganized.

[wxman57]

By the way, I see a more westerly component in Ernesto's motion that I have not seen today.

Careful with your estimation of the position of the center. My coworker just pointed that out to me a minute ago. High-res visible imagery indicates tht the center may be northeast of the heavier convection, almost on the coast of Haiti near 17.8/17.9N. Could be tracking NNW. Can't say for sure, as the center isn't easily visible now.

Let me grab you a McIDAS image to demonstrate...

[Innotech]

its still trying to pass Hispaniola. The eastern edge is completely caught up in the mountains, as if in a trap. I suspect it will eventually pull away from that convection and become more symmetrical.

[deltadog03]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... enhanced+1

here is the shortwave that many are crying wolf about. Its not digging its lifting out.

[Sanibel]

Right now it appears to be resuming WNW 290*


If it goes south of Cuba and cuts quickly across this could be worse for Florida. It will have less time over the spine of Cuba.

[BUD]

Are there any radars in this area???

[KWT]

Its hard to see the center but i've just darkened my screen right down and I can see a shallow (and I mean very shallow) eye-like feature where about 30 miles south of 18N, looks shallow but its there.

I presume thats the center that WMX57 is seeing at the moment, the 30 miles away from coast is just a estimate by the way looks to be on the northern side of the convective mass.

[skysummit]

I need help. What exactly is eroding the ridge? I've been studying WV for an hour now and I can't understand. Is it the shortwave trough or the ULL?

[deltadog03]

actually the ridge is much larger than that.

[ROCK]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+1

here is the shortwave that many are crying wolf about. Its not digging its lifting out.

saw that also...very rare for a shortwave to dig into the central GOM this time of year....and before someone bashes me with a Charley in 04 reference, yes I know all about it.

[skysummit]

actually the ridge is much larger than that.

Ok, so what's eroding it? I'm trying to grasp the whole picture.

[theworld]

Watching Ernesto over the past few days has been quite a learning experience for me. The erratic behavior of almost all the models, subsequent forum contributor takes on those models and predictions, the NHC always taking the mediun. The limitied technology we have is unfortunate for those on the GOM who are looking for any indication at all of wether or not to upgrade their preparedness. I want to contribute more here, but prefer silence w/such unsure probabilities. Thank you Pro-mets for your thankless efforts.

[wxman57]

Here's a high-res McIDAS image with the center clearly located. It's east of the blob of convection south of the western tip of Haiti. That blob may be moving/building WNW but the center is not.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto43.gif

[deltadog03]

actually the ridge is much larger than that.

Ok, so what's eroding it? I'm trying to grasp the whole picture.

I don't think there is anything erroding it right now. I think the light shear or the shear before was bouncing this north for a bit.

[jwayne]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+1

here is the shortwave that many are crying wolf about. Its not digging its lifting out.

saw that also...very rare for a shortwave to dig into the central GOM this time of year....and before someone bashes me with a Charley in 04 reference, yes I know all about it.

Bet you within 24 hours we have another flip on track with this storm, putting many s2k members on the brink of needing serious medication.

[skysummit]

actually the ridge is much larger than that.

Ok, so what's eroding it? I'm trying to grasp the whole picture.

I don't think there is anything erroding it right now. I think the light shear or the shear before was bouncing this north for a bit.

It looked like the ULL in the Atlantic caused a small southerly flow for a bit also. So if it's not eroding right now, what is going to erode it?

[Cape Verde]

Cuba is overrated as a hurricane killer in any event. The "mountains of eastern Cuba" are some 3,000' tall. I'd call them large hills, but maybe they're mountains.

In any event, Ernesto only has to cross about 20 miles of them before he's past them and headed out toward the Gulf. I don't know how much lasting damage that would do. Done and gone with Cuban Mountains in about 90 minutes...

[conestogo_flood]

How bad will this be in Cayman, my friends there say that they aren't getting much information from the government.

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS............

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/ ... _sfc.shtml