Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Dean4Storms]

Dean4storms, you beat me to the punch. I was just going to comment on the GFDL being the most consistent model with the last 3 runs nearly identical - then you brought up yesterdays 06Z and wow - I'm putting my money on this model - it was the only one that modeled KAT correctly in S FL and it seems the best on Ernie.

In comparing the two runs, it seems the second run wants this storm to ride across Cuba. Wouldn't that make a weaker storm when/if it emerges? And also, both runs have E going into the same area but at different angles. I just found that interesting and wanted to comment. Thoughts?

It would likely be weaker spending that much time over Cuba, but it would have the whole eastern Gulf to re-organize and further separation from the landmass of Florida.

In the first run it begins a turn more NNE in response to the shortwave. In the last run it gets trapped underneath and may stall, an Omega block so to speak.

[Sanibel]

Yes it is impacting Les Cayes now.

Current movement is right and into the Windward Passage for a run at eastern Cuba and into the Atlantic.

[Dean4Storms]

Sanibel, the LLC is not under the convection once again, it is just to its west.

[stormernie]

Folks, looking at the High Resolution visible loop, it is now apparent that the center is either reoganize or being pulled into the apparent MLC just off/over the SW coast of Haiti. This now looks like it will head NW into the extremen eastern tip of Cuba and then it may head up the east coast of Florida and the US. While there is also the possibility as the GFS is noting that it will turn a little more west just off the North coast of Cuba and ride into the Keys and extreme SW florida. The main issue is that it may not have that big a battle over Cuba and move slowly thru the straits and gain strength. Trust me I don't want to see this because I live in Miami and still haven't recovery like a lot of us here from Wilma.

[Thunder44]

[LAwxrgal]

I haven't seen all of the VDM plots but it sure seemed like this came up with more of a northward component against the tip of Haiti then kind of slowed and is now rolling off more westward around the Tip.

That is very interesting, Aquawind. What is it about these storms and their dances around land? Sounds like you're saying it "put on the brakes" once it reached the tip.

Whether it makes landfall or not, Haiti is in for a rough next few hours. I dread the reports that will come out of there.

[Dean4Storms]

Folks, looking at the High Resolution visible loop, it is now apparent that the center is either reoganize or being pulled into the apparent MLC just off/over the SW coast of Haiti. This now looks like it will head NW into the extremen eastern tip of Cuba and then it may head up the east coast of Florida and the US. While there is also the possibility as the GFS is noting that it will turn a little more west just off the North coast of Cuba and ride into the Keys and extreme SW florida. The main issue is that it may not have that big a battle over Cuba and move slowly thru the straits and gain strength. Trust me I don't want to see this because I live in Miami and still haven't recovery like a lot of us here from Wilma.

Once again, the LLC was located by Recon SW of Haiti. A LLC will NOT relocate over a landmass.

[StormsAhead]

Here is the missed set:
SXXX50 KNHC 271949
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 32 KNHC
1939. 1719N 07245W 01524 0052 173 035 174 150 036 01608 0000000000
1940 1718N 07245W 01526 0052 171 037 174 152 037 01610 0000000000
1940. 1717N 07246W 01524 0052 173 037 176 150 038 01609 0000000000
1941 1716N 07246W 01523 0052 176 036 176 152 037 01608 0000000000
1941. 1714N 07247W 01524 0052 179 033 174 154 033 01609 0000000000
1942 1714N 07247W 01524 0052 178 033 176 154 033 01608 0000000000
1942. 1714N 07247W 01524 0052 178 033 176 154 033 01608 0000000000
1943 1713N 07248W 01524 0052 176 034 178 154 035 01609 0000000000
1943. 1709N 07249W 01525 0051 174 035 180 150 036 01609 0000000000
1944 1708N 07250W 01523 0050 177 036 182 150 036 01606 0000000000
1944. 1707N 07250W 01524 0049 179 036 184 152 036 01606 0000000000
1945 1705N 07251W 01522 0049 177 037 182 154 038 01604 0000000000
1945. 1704N 07252W 01525 0049 179 037 184 152 037 01606 0000000000
1946 1703N 07252W 01525 0049 181 035 182 156 035 01607 0000000000
1946. 1702N 07253W 01522 0050 181 034 182 156 035 01604 0000000000
1947 1700N 07253W 01524 0049 183 033 180 160 033 01606 0000000000
1947. 1659N 07254W 01525 0050 183 032 180 158 033 01608 0000000000
1948 1658N 07255W 01524 0050 185 032 180 158 032 01607 0000000000
1948. 1657N 07255W 01523 0050 184 032 180 158 032 01606 0000000000
1949 1655N 07256W 01524 0050 185 032 180 156 032 01607 0000000000

[chris_fit]

Folks, looking at the High Resolution visible loop, it is now apparent that the center is either reoganize or being pulled into the apparent MLC just off/over the SW coast of Haiti. This now looks like it will head NW into the extremen eastern tip of Cuba and then it may head up the east coast of Florida and the US. While there is also the possibility as the GFS is noting that it will turn a little more west just off the North coast of Cuba and ride into the Keys and extreme SW florida. The main issue is that it may not have that big a battle over Cuba and move slowly thru the straits and gain strength. Trust me I don't want to see this because I live in Miami and still haven't recovery like a lot of us here from Wilma.

Once again, the LLC was located by Recon SW of Haiti. A LLC will NOT relocate over a landmass.

The center recon found was probably not the "main center" There is no way this thing is 1007mb and way out there. Look at the visible loop. Recon will confirm shorly.

[craptacular]

dropsonde #3 from AF309

579
UZNT13 KNHC 272007
XXAA 77204 99239 70841 08134 99015 29250 06504 00129 28048 07004
92817 22417 07509 85550 18038 07508 70188 08810 09010 50591 05566
10508 40762 16371 10525 88999 77999
31313 09608 81948
61616 AF309 0705A ERNESTO OB 03
62626 SPL 2393N08412W 1959 MBL WND 07007 AEV 20604 DLM WND 09012
013351 WL150 07005 084 =
XXBB 77208 99239 70841 08134 00015 29250 11908 21212 22896 21458
33850 18038 44656 05613 55622 03833 66599 02860 77550 01160 88542
01568 99509 04771 11479 07963 22452 10379 33444 11160 44439 11759
55427 13160 66412 14775 77373 19977 88355 21567 99344 24562
21212 00015 06504 11942 07010 22850 07508 33644 08011 44551 05510
55506 09008 66467 12513 77442 10014 88433 11015 99406 10024 11374
12527 22344 10033
31313 09608 81948
61616 AF309 0705A ERNESTO OB 03
62626 SPL 2393N08412W 1959 MBL WND 07007 AEV 20604 DLM WND 09012
013351 WL150 07005 084 =
;

[craptacular]

152
SXXX50 KNHC 272009
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 34 KNHC
1959. 1653N 07315W 01526 0048 191 029 170 170 031 01607 0000000000
2000 1655N 07316W 01523 0048 192 030 170 164 030 01604 0000000000
2000. 1657N 07317W 01524 0048 191 030 168 166 030 01605 0000000000
2001 1658N 07318W 01524 0048 194 033 166 166 033 01605 0000000000
2001. 1700N 07318W 01523 0048 195 030 166 166 031 01604 0000000000
2002 1702N 07319W 01525 0047 196 030 166 166 031 01605 0000000000
2002. 1703N 07320W 01522 0047 193 029 168 168 030 01602 0000000000
2003 1705N 07321W 01524 0048 201 027 172 162 029 01605 0000000000
2003. 1706N 07322W 01527 0048 212 028 178 148 028 01608 0000000000
2004 1707N 07324W 01524 0046 207 028 182 148 029 01603 0000000000
2004. 1707N 07325W 01522 0046 206 028 182 146 028 01601 0000000000
2005 1708N 07327W 01524 0045 209 028 182 146 029 01603 0000000000
2005. 1708N 07328W 01525 0045 210 028 184 146 028 01602 0000000000
2006 1709N 07330W 01523 0044 217 027 184 150 027 01601 0000000000
2006. 1709N 07332W 01525 0044 209 027 178 156 027 01602 0000000000
2007 1710N 07333W 01522 0043 214 028 184 150 028 01598 0000000000
2007. 1711N 07334W 01525 0042 206 028 178 158 029 01600 0000000000
2008 1712N 07336W 01523 0041 207 030 176 162 030 01597 0000000000
2008. 1714N 07337W 01525 0040 204 029 174 158 030 01598 0000000000
2009 1715N 07338W 01524 0039 200 030 176 156 030 01596 0000000000
;

[Sanibel]

Sanibel, recon fixes hasve shown that the storm has moved pretty much due west the last 1hr and is to the south of Haitiand looks like it'll stay that way unless it tracks NNW from now on.

I credit myself with being able to read storms and their movements.

Keep watching this go NW and into the Windward Passage. The CDO just jacked practically straight north for goodness' sakes.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is what I believe turned the system to the north, and also why theres two highs at the upper levels. See that upper level low at 25 north??? Then you see showers going down from it. That is a surface trough likely...The upper low is why theres two highs instead of one. Also the surface trough which the maps did not show is why the hurricane turned northward. At all levels the steering flow after 75 west turns back to the west. The quastion is how much farther north doe's this go? Will it pull a dennis maybe stay south of landfall. Then get pulled by that trough/weakness over the central US, in about 48 hours? Or will it move right through the spin of cuba. I don't see with these steering maps how it could go north. I will study the water vapor to make sure.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[storms in NC]

If you look here you can see what Sanibel is saying. It is going NW
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Aquawind]

They have danced before.. Yeah it sounds like some flooding and some surge most likely in Haiti..

[Thunder44]

[Sanibel]

This could be headed right for Guantanamo.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html


Sanibel, looking at water vapor in putting it on the upper level chart maps. See how the ull to its north is slowly moving westward with the system. That will move the high over the Gulf-75 west, to the west. While keeping a weakness in the highs. I know see how this could in fact go northward.

Now the quastion is doe's it go through the passage or will it go over the thickest part of cuba?

[Dean4Storms]

Folks, looking at the High Resolution visible loop, it is now apparent that the center is either reoganize or being pulled into the apparent MLC just off/over the SW coast of Haiti. This now looks like it will head NW into the extremen eastern tip of Cuba and then it may head up the east coast of Florida and the US. While there is also the possibility as the GFS is noting that it will turn a little more west just off the North coast of Cuba and ride into the Keys and extreme SW florida. The main issue is that it may not have that big a battle over Cuba and move slowly thru the straits and gain strength. Trust me I don't want to see this because I live in Miami and still haven't recovery like a lot of us here from Wilma.

Once again, the LLC was located by Recon SW of Haiti. A LLC will NOT relocate over a landmass.

The center recon found was probably not the "main center" There is no way this thing is 1007mb and way out there. Look at the visible loop. Recon will confirm shorly.

The 1007mb was not at the surface, extrapolated it was at 1002mb.

Recon with its radars and everything else already ID the LLC and this link marks the spot. The convection is ENE of the center.

http://img61.imageshack.us/my.php?image ... ap2jp2.jpg

[StormsAhead]

A dropsonde from a NOAA high-altitude flight:

UZNT13 KWBC 272014
XXAA 77202 99156 70762 04456 99008 27849 11006 00072 27246 10508
92758 22440 03012 85491 18028 06505 70139 11859 24505 50587 05165
20508 40759 15941 22508 30969 31157 27005 25096 40739 05511 20244
523// 05515 88999 77999
31313 09608 81956
51515 10190 15424
61616 NOAA9 0805A ERNESTO OB 01
62626 SPL 1561N07618W 2011 MBL WND 09508 AEV 20604 =
XXBB 77208 99156 70762 04456 00008 27849 11917 22038 22902 21856
33850 18028 44691 11260 55604 04058 66587 02450 77544 00163 88523
03150 99509 04350 11501 04965 22495 05558 33468 08363 44462 08950
55453 09741 66417 13150 77367 20726 88325 26956 99306 30150 11280
34762 22261 38944 33246 41337 44212 49356 55207 505//
21212 00008 11006 11969 09511 22928 03012 33904 04512 44880 05006
55850 06505 66472 21510 77454 19510 88373 27002 99252 05510 11228
05014 22219 03014 33194 06512
31313 09608 81956
51515 10190 15424
61616 NOAA9 0805A ERNESTO OB 01
62626 SPL 1561N07618W 2011 MBL WND 09508 AEV 20604 =