Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

CocoCreek · #41 Postby **CocoCreek** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:59 am

BlowMeAway wrote: This is like hurricane forecasting a la 1956, not 2006!

It shows that we have a long way to go and we will never be perfect.

Sanibel · #42 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:01 am

I forgot about storm size in the Florida Straits.

The 1935 200mph storm blew up in 1 day to category 5 because it was so small it didn't have to pull that much storm mass around itself in order to bomb.

westmoon · #43 Postby **westmoon** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:01 am

I believe it is picking up forward speed.

Glad i'm not the only one seeing that

#44 Postby **tgenius** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:02 am

I think the watches will upgrade to warnings at 5pm.. for the sake of the schools they kinda have to.

miamicanes177 · #45 Postby **miamicanes177** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:04 am

This is in awful share right now and will likely be downgraded still further to a depression at 4pm.

#46 Postby **JPmia** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:04 am

They will upgrade at 5pm per the thinking from my local government, i imagine not all of them will perhaps only the original ones in South FL first then up the coast later tonight.

Wx_Warrior · #47 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:04 am

link?

westmoon · #48 Postby **westmoon** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:04 am

The big question is how much longer can it move to the nw before it starts turning to the east?

#49 Postby **wjs3** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:07 am

cpdaman wrote:is the ull in the bahamas mentioned in any discussion of the storm i mean really it is right in it's path WTF

I'm kind of with you here. I must have been asleep at this switch. I knew there was a ULL there, but not so close. It has really shown up well on satellite and a lot closer to the storm than I thought. Take a look at the model runs though...that ULL is FLYING westward, and folks are right...it doesn't look so strong, especially as it moves west.

Nevertheless, I do think it's causing problems right now, and kind of missed this.

cpdaman · #50 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:08 am

no the big question is wether the ridge will bend it back more westward like the forecasts have it moving (TRUE NW) not 325 degrees nw

ConvergenceZone · #51 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:09 am

miamicanes177 wrote:This is in awful share right now and will likely be downgraded still further to a depression at 4pm.

this is expected...but just wait until it fully emerges.... :eek:

We've seen this time and time again with other storms.

Droop12 · #52 Postby **Droop12** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:09 am

Could anyone tell me where the center is on Cuba? I cant get the radar to load. Is it close to exiting or taking its time?

#53 Postby **Steve** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:10 am

>>Moderators?

Why? :?:

#54 Postby **drezee** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:10 am

Sanibel wrote:I forgot about storm size in the Florida Straits.

The 1935 200mph storm blew up in 1 day to category 5 because it was so small it didn't have to pull that much storm mass around itself in order to bomb.

Actually I thought it took 36 hours from classification of Cat 1 to Cat5.

It took 3-4 days to go from TS to Cat3 though

#55 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:11 am

Steve wrote:>>Moderators?

Why?

Inappropriate language:

The first significant storm of the season, so everyone has gone apeshit over it, including the forecasters and media

HurricaneJim · #56 Postby **HurricaneJim** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:11 am

I would not count this guy out yet. Last night (all night...yawn) it got all wrapped around the axel on Haiti's S. neck, then it spends five seconds over warm water and spools up again. Now it's headed towards the untouched bathwater of the Gulf Stream. They live on water...

Bahamas will run their usual interference but that will be short lived. As I was pointing out all last night, Navy WAM has been two steps ahead of everyone else the whole time. They're sticking with their buzz saw up the east coast model.

Now, the high pressure that's pushing east across the US will nudge it farther out but how far is the question.

I expect it to do what water hounds do....run the GS right on up.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

#57 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:13 am

wjs3 wrote:
cpdaman wrote:is the ull in the bahamas mentioned in any discussion of the storm i mean really it is right in it's path WTF

I'm kind of with you here. I must have been asleep at this switch. I knew there was a ULL there, but not so close. It has really shown up well on satellite and a lot closer to the storm than I thought. Take a look at the model runs though...that ULL is FLYING westward, and folks are right...it doesn't look so strong, especially as it moves west.

Nevertheless, I do think it's causing problems right now, and kind of missed this.

I asked about this ULL twice last night and didn't get a single response :roll:

Stratosphere747 · #58 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:13 am

Steve wrote:>>Moderators?

Why?

There was some Texan type language within the post...

PM a mod Gator, instead of repeating it....Good grief.

That ULL north does seem to be having some impact. And until recon fixes the center again, it will be hard to find it. Does like like it is going thru yet another reformation just off the coast.

Sanibel · #59 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:13 am

Like Andrew it tracked under a ridge east to west. I'm not sure about SE to N recurvers having the same forcing as 1935 and Andrew.

But the SST's are there.

#60 Postby **Steve** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:14 am

>>Inappropriate language...

I missed that. :oops:

Steve

Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

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