TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[Colossus]

wzrgirl1, Burlap and sand will NOT keep the water out. The sand has pore spaces between it and the water will eventually leak through. While the plastic bags will work better as far as a barrier is concerned. The ideal thing to use is bathroom caulking compound (applied about 2.5 to 3 feet up the sides (and bottom obviously) of your doors/sliding glass doors)...the caulk can be stripped away after the storm and while you may have some marring of the finish or the paint on the surface, it's better than water migration in your home...

[bayoubebe]

So, it's moved west instead of East?

Does this mean the west coast of Florida will get it more than the East coast?

Is there a chance this could get back in the gulf and strengthen?

Floridians, what's it like there now? Are your winds picking up, etc?

I think as said earlier, you should not concentrate on "the line".
Track of the center is nudged a bit west from before where it would be first east of Lake O, then across it and now looks to be west of it.

However, it looks like the major convection is east of the center in a very lopsided manner.

So, IMO; if you are west of the center you will not see much of the activity.
Seems like an East Coast and Center of the State event and not much for West Coast.

You are welcome to take it as you wish as my new roof is only partly complete and there are materials in my driveway

Why would I want it? I"m still recovering from Katrina. ( a bit sensitive about that on this particular day too, I may add)

No, thanks.

I just had those questions as indicated above.

[Sanibel]

Tip of Florida in crosshairs of TS.

[CronkPSU]

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 29, 2006


Air Force and NOAA aircraft wind data suggest that the inner core of
Ernesto is not well organized yet. SFMR observations from the NOAA
plane indicate that the maximum winds are still near 40 kt...and a
new fix from the Air Force hurricane hunters showed that the
central pressure is not falling...implying that intensification has
not occurred thus far. Satellite images show considerable deep
convection...and suggest increasing organization. There is still
a remote possibility for Ernesto to become a hurricane later
today...however none of the intensity guidance shows Ernesto
becoming a hurricane before landfall in southern Florida. The
official wind speed forecast is based on a combination of the
GFDL...SHIPS...and FSU superensemble output. After Ernesto moves
from Florida back into the Atlantic in about 2 days the guidance
indicates that is could become a hurricane prior to landfall along
the southeast U.S. Coast.
Satellite-based center fixes are somewhat to the northeast of the
earlier aircraft fixes...and the center is difficult to identify
thus far from land-based radars. Initial motion is estimated to be
315/11. The tropical cyclone is expected to move around the
western periphery of a mid-level high pressure area and then
accelerate ahead of a trough approaching the southeastern U.S. In a
couple of days. The consensus of the track models has shifted
slightly westward in the 12-24 hours time frame...and so has the
official forecast. This is on the eastern side of the guidance
envelope.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 29/1500z 23.3n 79.5w 40 kt
12hr VT 30/0000z 24.4n 80.6w 55 kt
24hr VT 30/1200z 26.3n 81.2w 55 kt...inland
36hr VT 31/0000z 28.5n 81.1w 45 kt...inland
48hr VT 31/1200z 30.9n 80.5w 60 kt
72hr VT 01/1200z 36.0n 79.0w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 02/1200z 39.5n 79.5w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 03/1200z 43.0n 80.0w 25 kt...extratropical

$$
forecaster Pasch

[gtalum]

With the center located .3 east of where the 11 Am advisory put it, I wonder if everything will shift back east by 5 pm?

[ronjon]

Sounds like there is still room for a westward shift. From NHC 11am Disc:

THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN THE 12-24 HOURS TIME FRAME...AND SO HAS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

[gtalum]

Tthat was before they knew where the center was.

[CronkPSU]

gtalum...

where did you get the .3 east center?

[bayoubebe]

Sounds like there is still room for a westward shift. From NHC 11am Disc:

THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN THE 12-24 HOURS TIME FRAME...AND SO HAS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

Yea, that's what I had noticed too.

The whole state of Florida looks like it will get some rain, at a minimum, out of this IMO.

Southeastern coast of the US should be watching carefully too.

[craptacular]

With the center located .3 east of where the 11 Am advisory put it, I wonder if everything will shift back east by 5 pm?

If you're using my quote from the recon discussion thread, just be careful. We're still waiting to see the VDM ... that was just my guess looking at minobs.

[gtalum]

Oops. I thought that was concrete. I apologize.

[dizzyfish]

Has anyone seen a new map from NHC as of 11? I can't seem to find an updated one.

[Sanibel]

At 4am it was headed right for the west coast. We said to each other "this would have to take a screeching right turn to miss us". Sure enough it is turning right.

[gtalum]

Has anyone seen a new map from NHC as of 11? I can't seem to find an updated one.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00605.html

[chris_fit]

Very important VDM that will come in shortly, will really show up if he's winding up or not...

[Canelaw99]

NHC Forecaster Knabb on CBS4:

It has the opportunity to strengthen today and tonight as it approaches the Keys and S. FL. If it follows the exact track, it could bring a lot of rain for hours and hours over southern FL. Irene in '99 is a good example of a comparable storm, even though the COC came in from the SW. We don't want to pay a lot of attention to the COC in this storm because the weather will be removed from it. The vert. shear isn't there in the atmosphere, so the conditions in the air and the water temps. are very conducive to strengthening, but it doesn't have a lot of time out there. The chance is still there to become a hurricane, but chances are a little less than yesterday. Depending on where you live in S. FL, you might get more out of this one than you did out of Katrina last year here. "Every storm is different". If the ground gets soft due to rain, trees can come down in TS winds, and power lines can be knocked down in TS winds. Tropical systems, especially the NE side are capable of producing tornadoes. We get aircraft data almost immediately so if something major/drastic is happening, we alert the public ASAP.

OK, there ya go - synopsis from the NHC

[wxman57]

Here are the latest dynamic model plots. As has been mentioned, ignore the BAMS, BAMD, BAMM, LBAR and any climo model. And don't focus in the center of Ernesto, focus on the squalls northeat of the weak center. This is a rain event for Florida, not much of a wind event compared to what they've seen in the past 2 years:

[Toadstool]

Has anyone seen a new map from NHC as of 11? I can't seem to find an updated one.

It's shifted west, but looks like the east coast still gets the majority of the wind cone.
http://skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=z&m=05

[CronkPSU]

URNT12 KNHC 291510
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/14:43:20Z
B. 23 deg 29 min N
079 deg 26 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 301 deg 051 nm
F. 045 deg 028 kt
G. 301 deg 050 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 23 C/ 430 m
J. 24 C/ 430 m
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 8 nm
P. AF308 1605A ERNESTO OB 06
MAX FL WIND 28 KT NW QUAD 14:26:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[Zackiedawg]

Funny that the forecaster mentioned Irene...that was EXACTLY what I was thinking of! Even though she came in more from the SW, she tracked up through the Everglades as a minimal Cat1 to TS.

And it was the most rainfall we've ever received in our part of Boca Raton. I seem to recall 17", with parts of Boynton beach reaching 20"+. In 24 years living in the same household, it was the one and only time there was ever flooding in my neighborhood, enough to close the roads to traffic in several places. It took 3 days for the water to recede.

Wilma, Frances, Jeanne were all more impactful storms overall, but Irene took the prize for the wettest event.

I wonder if Ernesto will bring us that kind of rainfall?