Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

#3041 Postby **Pebbles** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:36 am

Well... an eye wall value. Haven't seen that in a while

Thunder44 · #3042 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:39 am

clfenwi · #3043 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:42 am

SXXX50 KNHC 310842
AF303 2105A ERNESTO HDOB 25 KNHC
0829. 2921N 08042W 01525 5000 310 038 148 148 039 01558 0000000000
0830 2919N 08041W 01525 0003 293 038 164 164 039 01561 0000000000
0830. 2919N 08039W 01525 5002 289 037 162 162 039 01557 0000000000
0831 2919N 08037W 01522 5003 292 040 166 166 041 01553 0000000000
0831. 2918N 08035W 01526 5004 288 037 166 166 038 01556 0000000000
0832 2918N 08032W 01522 5005 288 038 168 168 038 01551 0000000000
0832. 2918N 08030W 01525 5006 283 040 170 170 041 01553 0000000000
0833 2917N 08028W 01524 5006 283 040 166 166 040 01551 0000000000
0833. 2917N 08026W 01522 5007 281 040 164 164 041 01549 0000000000
0834 2917N 08024W 01527 5008 280 043 166 166 043 01552 0000000000
0834. 2916N 08021W 01519 5009 275 042 160 160 043 01544 0000000000
0835 2916N 08019W 01529 5009 271 040 156 156 042 01554 0000000000
0835. 2916N 08017W 01522 5008 270 043 156 156 044 01547 0000000000
0836 2915N 08015W 01524 5007 267 045 164 164 047 01551 0000000000
0836. 2915N 08012W 01524 5007 260 044 168 168 045 01550 0000000000
0837 2914N 08010W 01523 5007 261 044 170 170 044 01550 0000000000
0837. 2914N 08008W 01524 5007 260 045 168 168 045 01551 0000000000
0838 2914N 08006W 01523 5006 259 046 166 166 047 01551 0000000000
0838. 2913N 08003W 01525 5005 258 048 166 166 048 01554 0000000000
0839 2913N 08001W 01524 5005 255 048 168 168 049 01552 0000000000

Normandy · #3044 Postby **Normandy** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:43 am

Ernesto now has 50 mph winds and is intensifying fast

#3045 Postby **MBismyPlayground** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:47 am

This just seems to be getting worse, hour by hour. Thanks to all of you who are interpreting these humbers, I was lost for a few hours. :cheesy:

Thunder44 · #3046 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:49 am

Thunder44 · #3047 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:51 am

It also appears to be moving more NE.

clfenwi · #3048 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:51 am

SXXX50 KNHC 310852
AF303 2105A ERNESTO HDOB 26 KNHC
0839. 2913N 07959W 01523 5004 250 049 172 172 050 01552 0000000000
0840 2912N 07957W 01524 5003 246 050 178 164 050 01555 0000000000
0840. 2912N 07954W 01525 5002 243 050 170 170 050 01557 0000000000
0841 2911N 07952W 01524 5001 243 050 168 168 050 01557 0000000000
0841. 2911N 07950W 01524 0000 244 049 172 164 050 01557 0000000000
0842 2911N 07948W 01523 0001 241 050 168 166 050 01557 0000000000
0842. 2910N 07946W 01525 0002 241 048 166 166 049 01561 0000000000
0843 2910N 07944W 01524 0002 240 048 166 166 050 01560 0000000000
0843. 2910N 07941W 01524 0004 241 048 166 166 049 01562 0000000000
0844 2909N 07939W 01523 0006 239 046 166 166 047 01562 0000000000
0844. 2909N 07936W 01525 0007 238 046 166 166 047 01565 0000000000
0845 2909N 07935W 01523 0008 239 047 168 160 047 01564 0000000000
0845. 2908N 07933W 01523 0009 236 046 164 164 046 01566 0000000000
0846 2908N 07931W 01524 0010 237 047 168 168 048 01567 0000000000
0846. 2907N 07929W 01525 0012 235 047 168 164 048 01571 0000000000
0847 2907N 07926W 01524 0012 236 046 168 164 046 01569 0000000000
0847. 2907N 07924W 01524 0014 232 047 168 168 048 01571 0000000000
0848 2906N 07922W 01524 0014 232 045 168 168 045 01572 0000000000
0848. 2906N 07920W 01525 0016 231 044 166 166 045 01575 0000000000
0849 2906N 07918W 01523 0017 231 045 166 166 046 01573 0000000000

#3049 Postby **Pebbles** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:52 am

Where oh where is the 5AM *taps keyboard*

Thunder44 · #3050 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:54 am

#3051 Postby **Pebbles** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:02 am

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 31, 2006

...Ernesto strengthens over the Atlantic east of northern Florida...

at 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued
along the Florida coast south of Flagler Beach.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Flagler Beach
Florida to Cape Lookout North Carolina.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 30.0 north...longitude 80.2 west or about 90
miles...150 km...east-southeast of Jacksonville Florida and about
195 miles...310 km...south of Charleston South Carolina.

Ernesto is moving toward the north near 15 mph...24 km/hr...and a
gradual turn toward the north-northeast and a faster forward speed
are expected during the next 24 hours. This motion will take the
center of Ernesto farther away from the coast of northeast Florida
today...and could bring the center near the north and South Carolina
coasts late this afternoon or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
mainly to the southeast of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb...29.47 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels
is possible along the coasts of south and North Carolina in areas
of onshore flow within the warning area. Coastal storm surge
flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels is possible along
the Georgia coast in areas of onshore flow.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible from northeast South
Carolina into the mid-Atlantic states...and the southern and
central Appalachians...with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches...through Saturday. These amounts could cause life-
threatening flash floods. Additional isolated rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches are possible over Florida today.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over eastern North Carolina late
this afternoon and tonight.
Repeating the 500 am EDT position...30.0 N...80.2 W. Movement
toward...north near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph.
Minimum central pressure...998 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am EDT.

$$
Forecaster brown/Knabb

clfenwi · #3052 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:03 am

SXXX50 KNHC 310902
AF303 2105A ERNESTO HDOB 27 KNHC
0849. 2905N 07916W 01524 0018 230 046 166 166 047 01576 0000000000
0850 2905N 07914W 01524 0019 228 046 166 166 047 01576 0000000000
0850. 2905N 07912W 01524 0020 229 044 168 168 044 01577 0000000000
0851 2904N 07910W 01524 0021 228 044 170 170 046 01579 0000000000
0851. 2904N 07908W 01523 0022 224 049 166 166 050 01579 0000000000
0852 2904N 07906W 01525 0023 224 049 166 166 049 01582 0000000000
0852. 2903N 07904W 01524 0023 225 049 154 154 050 01580 0000000000
0853 2903N 07902W 01524 0028 221 047 156 156 049 01585 0000000000
0853. 2904N 07900W 01530 0031 220 046 172 172 047 01595 0000000000
0854 2905N 07900W 01520 0028 219 046 170 170 046 01581 0000000000
0854. 2906N 07902W 01522 0024 220 044 166 166 047 01580 0000000000
0855 2907N 07903W 01524 0022 219 047 164 164 047 01579 0000000000
0855. 2908N 07905W 01525 0021 223 043 168 168 046 01579 0000000000
0856 2909N 07906W 01524 0019 222 043 166 166 044 01576 0000000000
0856. 2910N 07907W 01524 0018 224 041 168 168 042 01575 0000000000
0857 2912N 07909W 01525 0017 221 042 164 164 043 01575 0000000000
0857. 2913N 07910W 01522 0016 225 044 162 162 044 01572 0000000000
0858 2914N 07911W 01526 0015 226 043 166 164 044 01575 0000000000
0858. 2915N 07912W 01523 0013 226 042 174 158 042 01569 0000000000
0859 2916N 07914W 01525 0013 225 043 172 164 044 01571 0000000000

#3053 Postby **Pebbles** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:04 am

Hum public advisory says 998mb pressure now but i didn't see a new vortex... wonder where they got that from

#3054 Postby **Pebbles** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:05 am

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 27

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 31, 2006

the radar presentation of Ernesto has improved over the past hour or
two. The convective band over the southern semicircle is now
trying to wrap around the east and northeast portion of the
circulation. Observations from the Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft indicated 850 mb flight level winds of 55 kt. A
dropsonde released in the convection to the southeast of the center
found mean winds in the lowest 150 meters of 51 kt which equates to
a surface winds of about 43 kt. The advisory intensity will be
set at 45 kt.
Ernesto has about 18 hours over water in which to intensify. The
intensity guidance call for gradual strengthening and this is
followed by the official forecast. It should be noted...that
Ernesto could become a little stronger than indicated in the
forecast after 12 hours and prior to it reaching the coast...but
reaching hurricane intensity appears unlikely. After landfall in
the Carolinas...Ernesto is expected to quickly weaken and become an
extratropical low in about 36-48 hours.
The initial motion is 010/13. The track reasoning remains
unchanged from the previous advisory. Ernesto is forecast to
continue north to north-northeastward between a deep-layer ridge
over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the eastern
United States. As Ernesto becomes extratropical it is expected
to turn slightly north-northwestward around the east side of a
cut-off low over the Ohio Valley. The official track forecast
remains virtually unchanged and is an update of the previous
advisory.

The 12 ft seas radii have been expanded in the eastern semicircle
based on observations from buoy 41010.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 31/0900z 30.0n 80.2w 45 kt
12hr VT 31/1800z 32.1n 79.5w 50 kt
24hr VT 01/0600z 34.6n 78.6w 40 kt...inland
36hr VT 01/1800z 37.0n 78.2w 25 kt...becoming extratropical
48hr VT 02/0600z 39.3n 78.5w 25 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 03/0600z 44.5n 80.0w 25 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 04/0600z...dissipated

$$
forecaster brown/Knabb

Thunder44 · #3055 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:07 am

clfenwi · #3056 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:12 am

SXXX50 KNHC 310912
AF303 2105A ERNESTO HDOB 28 KNHC
0859. 2917N 07915W 01524 0011 227 043 170 168 044 01569 0000000000
0900 2918N 07916W 01523 0009 227 044 168 168 045 01566 0000000000
0900. 2920N 07918W 01526 0008 220 045 166 166 045 01567 0000000000
0901 2921N 07919W 01521 0006 225 043 166 166 043 01561 0000000000
0901. 2922N 07920W 01526 0005 226 043 166 164 044 01565 0000000000
0902 2923N 07922W 01523 0004 229 047 166 164 048 01560 0000000000
0902. 2924N 07923W 01526 0003 227 047 166 166 049 01563 0000000000
0903 2925N 07924W 01525 0001 223 049 166 166 050 01560 0000000000
0903. 2926N 07925W 01523 5001 222 047 166 166 047 01555 0000000000
0904 2928N 07927W 01524 5003 224 047 166 166 047 01555 0000000000
0904. 2929N 07928W 01524 5004 223 046 170 170 046 01554 0000000000
0905 2930N 07929W 01525 5005 223 045 174 174 046 01553 0000000000
0905. 2931N 07931W 01523 5007 220 046 180 178 047 01549 0000000000
0906 2932N 07932W 01524 5009 219 043 176 176 044 01549 0000000000
0906. 2933N 07933W 01523 5011 219 044 172 172 044 01546 0000000000
0907 2935N 07935W 01527 5012 217 045 174 174 046 01548 0000000000
0907. 2936N 07936W 01522 5014 219 043 174 174 044 01541 0000000000
0908 2937N 07937W 01527 5017 216 045 172 172 046 01544 0000000000
0908. 2938N 07939W 01522 5019 214 045 174 174 045 01537 0000000000
0909 2939N 07940W 01523 5021 213 044 176 176 045 01535 0000000000

Thunder44 · #3057 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:16 am

clfenwi · #3058 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:22 am

SXXX50 KNHC 310922
AF303 2105A ERNESTO HDOB 29 KNHC
0909. 2940N 07942W 01525 5024 212 043 176 176 044 01534 0000000000
0910 2941N 07943W 01524 5027 214 044 176 176 046 01531 0000000000
0910. 2942N 07945W 01524 5030 214 045 176 176 045 01527 0000000000
0911 2943N 07946W 01524 5033 211 044 174 174 046 01525 0000000000
0911. 2944N 07948W 01523 5036 209 040 174 174 041 01521 0000000000
0912 2945N 07949W 01525 5038 212 036 176 176 037 01520 0000000000
0912. 2946N 07951W 01524 5040 214 030 176 176 032 01517 0000000000
0913 2947N 07952W 01524 5042 212 028 178 178 029 01516 0000000000
0913. 2947N 07954W 01525 5043 211 025 180 178 025 01516 0000000000
0914 2948N 07956W 01524 5044 212 024 180 180 025 01513 0000000000
0914. 2949N 07957W 01524 5045 216 020 180 180 021 01512 0000000000
0915 2950N 07959W 01524 5046 215 017 180 180 018 01512 0000000000
0915. 2950N 08001W 01524 5046 215 015 178 178 016 01511 0000000000
0916 2951N 08002W 01524 5047 220 012 180 178 013 01511 0000000000
0916. 2952N 08004W 01524 5046 225 010 174 174 010 01511 0000000000
0917 2953N 08006W 01523 5047 231 007 174 174 008 01510 0000000000
0917. 2954N 08007W 01525 5047 240 005 172 172 006 01512 0000000000
0918 2955N 08008W 01524 5046 269 003 176 176 004 01512 0000000000
0918. 2956N 08010W 01524 5046 305 002 180 180 004 01512 0000000000
0919 2957N 08011W 01525 5046 023 003 172 172 006 01513 0000000000

Thunder44 · #3059 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:23 am

clfenwi · #3060 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:29 am

URNT12 KNHC 310926
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/09:18:00Z
B. 29 deg 56 min N
080 deg 09 min W
C. 850 mb 1408 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 223 deg 050 kt
G. 124 deg 049 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 17 C/ 1522 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN NNW-NE
M. C25
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 2105A ERNESTO OB 17
MAX FL WIND 50 KT SE QUAD 09:02:50 Z
RAGGED INNER EYEWALL,C8, FORMING IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF LARGER EYE

Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

Who is online