TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

[drezee]

The NOAA aircraft has turned NW and is heading back into the center. I am thinking that the NHC may issue a special advisory once they get back in. Based on the winds in the outer SE quad, they may have to issue hurricane warnings.

[TampaFl]

2:00PM position

[storms in NC]

here is a good site to watch the beach with and the waters here are 83 that is still warm.

http://www.eilivesurf.com/

Nice cam. Thanks!

You very welcome. It is where I go fishing alll the time.

[southerngale]

jwayne's comment was removed, therefore, so was yours, bjackrian.

Inappropriate, jwayne.

[shaggy]

2:00PM position

worse case scenario right now is he misses wilmington to the east and doesnt make landfall till further up the coast earlier in the week UKMET showed that track and now the GFDL does so we will see what happens but if your graphic is an indication he may make landfall closer to cape fear

[UpTheCreek]

Thanks for those position maps, TampaFL. Am I right in stating it took another NE jog in the last couple hours? Thanks again, that's really helpful to those of us in the path.

[bjackrian]

jwayne's comment was removed, therefore, so was yours, bjackrian.

Inappropriate, jwayne.

Thanks and sorry.

On another note, we're already getting some reasonable winds as far away as Washington, DC (20 mph sustained), and the rain bands are still 100 or so miles south of here. They've started sandbagging my campus already, so we're getting prepared for rain at least. We'll hope stronger winds don't make it this far inland.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Advisory center fixes since Ernie left FL.



Note that soon the center will be leaving the gulf stream and moving over slightly cooler shelf waters. May slow the current strenghtening trend some.

Notice the 2pm position (31.9N 79.1W) keeps Ernesto over the Gulf Stream a little bit longer.....

[conestogo_flood]

Why does CNN say 70 mph winds, when the 2pm discussion says 60 mph. Huh?

Now, the banner says near 60 mph, but the info in the top corner says 70 mph. On CNN.

[artist]

This has happened before -not often- if it is a typo then I feel sure it will be changed shortly.

[terstorm1012]

As for local conditions, it seems kind of cold out here where I am, as if the front has passed us. I'll need to look at a chart to verify but could that mean Ernesto could go a little more to the east of where it is going? Merely curious.

[UpTheCreek]

There was an error in NHC's advisory. They first say 70 and err in a following paragraph with 60.

[PTrackerLA]

If Ernesto had another 24 hours over water we would most likely be looking at a category 3 hurricane at the rate it's strengthening. I expect landfall as an 80-85pm hurricane.

[Janice]

So is it 60 or 70? They are debating this issue in the chatroom too.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

There was an error in NHC's advisory. They first say 70 and err in a following paragraph with 60.

and it has since been corrected. see here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 05#1450305

[UpTheCreek]

Officially 70, the public advisory at NHC has been corrected.

[theworld]

Advisory center fixes since Ernie left FL.

Note that soon the center will be leaving the gulf stream and moving over slightly cooler shelf waters. May slow the current strenghtening trend some.

Hi AJC3... do you have a source link for those gulf stream images ? besides the 'mypages' one in the Storm2K code ?

[Janice]

Thanks guys...

[wxman57]

Here's a nice, pretty McIDAS image:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto73.gif

And a colorized image:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto74.jpg

[NFLDART]

Getting very close to that threshold now.