Sitting here looking at the model runs trying to determine exactly what is going to happen with these waves I discovered something for myself that could potentially cause a pattern change in North America and the Atlantic Basin.
For the past few months in the CONUS we have had Zonal Flow moving from west to east along the United States with occasional Shortwaves moving south along the east coast.
Looking at the CONUS and the forecast models I noticed something as I ran the THETA850mb temps from the Global Models. You see Ridging in the Western United States and Troughing in the East with the Jetstream pushing farther south causing lower temperatures in the Mid west and Northeastern states.
In my thinking also noticed that that Troughing that has been occuring in the Central Atlantic that has caused a lot of Upper Level lows to form about 20 North and between 40-60 west, cut off from the semi-perm. C. Atl Troughing. This feature should move towards the eastern atlantic.
In summary I would like to say that we may be in the midst of a pattern Change that may include the Following:
1 Stronger Central Atlantic/Bermuda High
2 Less Upper Level Lows causing shear and decapitation of tropical development.
3 Tropical Waves/Low to be able to move under the ridge.
4 East Coast Threats from Tropical Storms and Hurricanes in time for peak season.
Example: Current Central Atlantic Troughing -
Check the Global Models for yourself here:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Notice the Ridging in the West and Cooler Temps in the East:
