T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I've looked at it the last several runs. A weakness develops before the system reaches the U.S. and it turns north.

I see the weakness but do you know what causes it?

Upper trough moving toward the east Coast at that time.

[Grease Monkey]

Thanks the link works now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Should be heading almost northward intill the trough axis pasts by. Which should be starting in about 12 to 24 hours. Which the high then will start forming. This thing is starting to form a central core. This is very much looking like a tropical storm. 98L is also looking good as it moves westward.

[clfenwi]

00Z GFDL... more northerly track than the previous run...

WHXX04 KWBC 040528
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.6 40.2 310./ 9.9
6 14.9 40.6 310./ 4.6
12 15.6 41.4 309./ 9.8
18 16.0 41.9 311./ 7.1
24 16.6 42.2 333./ 5.9
30 17.6 42.8 330./12.3
36 17.9 44.0 284./11.8
42 18.2 45.0 286./ 9.4
48 18.2 45.8 272./ 7.5
54 18.3 46.5 276./ 7.1
60 18.7 47.0 308./ 5.9
66 19.0 47.6 294./ 6.3
72 19.3 48.3 299./ 7.4
78 20.0 49.0 312./ 9.3
84 20.7 49.9 307./10.8
90 21.4 50.8 310./11.0
96 22.2 51.9 308./13.1
102 22.9 52.9 303./12.0
108 23.6 54.2 297./13.8
114 24.1 55.5 293./12.9
120 24.5 56.5 288./ 9.7
126 24.8 57.5 290./ 9.8

[Grease Monkey]

TD6 looks like it's just moving north? I don't really see any westward movement.

[SouthFLTropics]

TD6 looks like it's just moving north? I don't really see any westward movement.

Yeah, that trough has a heck of a grip on it...If the trough don't move out soon I think we will see a big shift in the models. I even wonder whether or not TD6 will hang on. The player for the CONUS may end up being ex98L or 98L or whatever it is. Plus, we have to watch that flare up behind TD6 as well. It is a player in all of this as well. BTW, Grease Monkey, I love the avatar. Ace Ventura is one of the best movies and I love the line from that scene. "Put me in coach, just give me a chance"! LOL

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like there has been a big shift to the North in the last GFDL run.

http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the Eumetsat... It seems like the low level center is moving NW but, the convection is being sheared off to the Northeast. That is what is causing it to look like it is moving north and not much east. IMO 12MPH may be a little generous though. I'd be interested to see the WV loop to see if the trough is moving out or sticking around.

The models are going to change track because they can't perfectly forecast all the features but, if you see a consensus that is probably the best track to go with.

If the ULT hangs around we'll see a track shift to the north but, then we're gonna rely on what the Ridge does and how strong it is.

http://tinyurl.com/m38xq

[miamicanes177]

hopefully the north shift is the beginning of a trend. Kind of like what we saw with ernersto when the models keep shifting more and more east. We want this going north and out to sea.

[Grease Monkey]

Looks like there has been a big shift to the North in the last GFDL run.

http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

Yeah I definitely wouldn't be suprised to see a shift in the models, but maybe they expect the building high to be very strong and possibly push it a little south in the end. I would like to hear what the pro-mets have to say.

Here I think you'll like this :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7uHLDy62tY

[calculatedrisk]

A little more convection evident after the eclipse (this is the Meteosat-8 view):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[clfenwi]

WHXX01 KWBC 040657
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX (AL062006) ON 20060904 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060904 0600 060904 1800 060905 0600 060905 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.3N 40.7W 16.9N 42.1W 18.2N 43.6W 19.6N 44.9W
BAMM 15.3N 40.7W 17.0N 42.7W 18.3N 44.7W 19.4N 46.6W
A98E 15.3N 40.7W 16.4N 42.3W 17.6N 44.1W 19.0N 45.9W
LBAR 15.3N 40.7W 16.8N 42.1W 18.5N 43.7W 20.0N 45.2W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060906 0600 060907 0600 060908 0600 060909 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.8N 46.2W 22.3N 50.2W 23.1N 55.2W 24.0N 60.1W
BAMM 19.9N 48.5W 20.0N 53.0W 19.7N 57.0W 19.5N 58.8W
A98E 20.3N 48.2W 22.5N 53.7W 23.7N 59.6W 23.3N 65.0W
LBAR 21.4N 46.7W 24.4N 50.8W 26.8N 55.9W 29.1N 60.2W
SHIP 54KTS 63KTS 69KTS 74KTS
DSHP 54KTS 63KTS 69KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.3N LONCUR = 40.7W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 39.3W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 37.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[kometes]

Why did I look?

The GFS shows Florence and a second bigger storm behind it held south by the ridges joining up. That's nearly impossible since the first storm would stir up all the cold water and it's likely that the ridges won't join up, but, still, why did I look?

Pass the Tums, please.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

04/0600 UTC 15.5N 40.3W T2.5/2.5 06L -- Atlantic Ocean


2.5 again...The system really doe's appear to be a tropical storm. There is times I'm in big disagreement.

[SouthFLTropics]

Does someone have the link to the GFS animation that they could provide me with?

[ericinmia]

Does someone have the link to the GFS animation that they could provide me with?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Here is an easier to understand one... but it only goes out to 144hrs

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[SouthFLTropics]

I've got a question that maybe the pro mets here can help me on. Is not the GFS model based off of the GFDL or the GFDL is based off of the GFS? I thought I had heard something to that affect. If that is the case then why would there be such a spread in their runs from 2000 hours last night?

[jlauderdal]

hopefully the north shift is the beginning of a trend. Kind of like what we saw with ernersto when the models keep shifting more and more east. We want this going north and out to sea.

hebert box, based on the forecast this system misses hebert

If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade,Broward & Palm Bch Counties. The following is a list showing Hurricanes that passed through these Boxes,starting with Box #1.

[Sanibel]

As I posted before, I think there's a tongue of ridge in between the trough and 06L. That trough is strong enough that it would have jacked 06L straight north if it were bearing direct contact. The trough's nadir is still slightly west of 06L, meaning it's influence isn't over. However it is my opinion that 06L is reacting to a deformation of the ridge slot just above it that is in turn being deformed by the trough above it. Complicated scenario - but don't look for 06L to recurve directly from here and out to sea.

Meanwhile 98L seems to have lost some depth. Right now both storms seem to be under that 2006 raggy sparseness. We could be looking at systems headed into the same sapping environment as Ernesto.

Proof of the ridge slot between 06L and the trough is the fact that 06L is being disrupted by the mid-Atlantic negativity within that feature as it is forced up into it. The storm is having a hard time with it and losing symmetry.

[Thunder44]

Convection seems to be less organized around the center this morning which appears to broad. But convection is deeper and I expect to slow development to occur over the next few days. It should become a TS today, if it isn't already.