NWS Anchorage:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE SEP 5 2006
.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...AND A VERY STRONG BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. SOUTHERN ALASKA CONTINUES IN
CYCLONIC FLOW...AND THUS MORE PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE GULF LOW REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE BY THE
NORTHWEST BLOCKING RIDGE. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITIONING OF FORMER SUPER TYPHOON IOKE JUST EAST OF JAPAN.
THE REMNANTS OF IOKE ARE FORECAST TO LINK UP WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING OFF OF SIBERIA LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RAPIDLY SPIN UP INTO A
DEEP CYCLONE AND MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND THEN START TO DIVERGE AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AND AKPEN. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL END UP IN THE NORTHERN
GULF FOR THE WEEKEND...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL IN RESPONSE TO THE
NORTHWEST BLOCKING RIDGE.
AFTER THIS POINT THE GFS SEEMS TO LOSE
TOUCH WITH REALITY. IN FACT ALL OF THE (FEW) OTHER MODELS THAT
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT BECOME CLUELESS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS
TIME OF YEAR THAT IS NOT UNCOMMON.
Laughter aside, it appears Ioke will definitely be a formidable extratropical cyclone by the time it gets up there.