Invest 91L Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Wx_Warrior
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#81 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:17 pm

GFS models must have poof in the blueprints for 91L...
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jusforsean
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#82 Postby jusforsean » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:17 pm

Damar91 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:If it is moving south, then we'd better be praying to God that this blob goes poof...the chances of a fishie drop significantly...


Could be a double whammy for someone....


Yeah, i remember a few days ago one of the models actually had 2 storm right into south florida one after another like back to back. What was with that? I suppose that model was having a moment, i hope! has that ever happened where a storm hits and then like 3 days later another? Can you imagine no power, nothing and here we go again!
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#83 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:18 pm

Damar91 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:If it is moving south, then we'd better be praying to God that this blob goes poof...the chances of a fishie drop significantly...


Could be a double whammy for someone....


Doubt it, this blob (Gordon?) would be headed for the Caribbean in that case...
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#84 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:18 pm

jusforsean wrote:
Damar91 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:If it is moving south, then we'd better be praying to God that this blob goes poof...the chances of a fishie drop significantly...


Could be a double whammy for someone....


Yeah, i remember a few days ago one of the models actually had 2 storm right into south florida one after another like back to back. What was with that? I suppose that model was having a moment, i hope! has that ever happened where a storm hits and then like 3 days later another? Can you imagine no power, nothing and here we go again!


Connie followed by Diane? Those were like days apart...
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#85 Postby Meso » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:36 pm

18z GFDL model run
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#86 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:57 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060906 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060906 0000 060906 1200 060907 0000 060907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.4N 35.7W 16.1N 38.0W 16.8N 40.2W 17.4N 42.3W
BAMM 15.4N 35.7W 16.5N 38.3W 17.8N 40.5W 19.0N 42.2W
A98E 15.4N 35.7W 16.3N 38.3W 17.0N 40.9W 17.9N 43.2W
LBAR 15.4N 35.7W 16.5N 38.3W 17.5N 41.0W 18.1N 43.7W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060908 0000 060909 0000 060910 0000 060911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.7N 43.8W 17.2N 46.2W 16.7N 48.1W 17.2N 49.9W
BAMM 19.7N 43.4W 19.6N 45.4W 19.2N 47.4W 19.5N 49.6W
A98E 18.6N 45.5W 19.8N 49.9W 20.2N 54.3W 20.4N 58.0W
LBAR 18.5N 46.3W 18.4N 50.6W 17.8N 53.4W 16.7N 55.1W
SHIP 42KTS 48KTS 51KTS 58KTS
DSHP 42KTS 48KTS 51KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 35.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 33.1W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 30.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#87 Postby skysummit » Tue Sep 05, 2006 8:16 pm

Image
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#88 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:45 pm

Where's the 10:30 TWO?
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#89 Postby WxGuy1 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 11:59 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:Where's the 10:30 TWO?


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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#90 Postby RattleMan » Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:21 am

WxGuy1 wrote:
Hurricanehink wrote:Where's the 10:30 TWO?


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


At that time, it wasn't up. It was over two hours late.
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#91 Postby senorpepr » Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:28 am

RattleMan wrote:
WxGuy1 wrote:
Hurricanehink wrote:Where's the 10:30 TWO?


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


At that time, it wasn't up. It was over two hours late.


It was transmitted 15 minutes late, per the bulletin header...
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#92 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:57 am

This little storm better not speed up, in needs to stay a good 900-1,200 miles east of Florence. If it wents to have a chance.
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#93 Postby Meso » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:42 am

00z GFDL model run
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#94 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:50 am

Image

Is it too early to start waving the "poof" flag? :D :D :D :lol: :D :D
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#95 Postby Normandy » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:53 am

Florence made quick work of that one
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#96 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:32 pm

Sitting here looking at the model runs. If Flo ends up pulling out as quick as the models prog it to pull out. With the canadian high building in and the trough pulling out.

As long as 91L can remain a safe distance away from FLO I think the East Coast needs to watch the development of this feature. The GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS develop this system and with High pressure obviously going to build back in after Flo and ULT pull out, this would be an obvious possible US threat.

Lot's of if's there though.
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#97 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 07, 2006 4:25 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 072105
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU SEP 7 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 560 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST EAST OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS NOW MERGING
WITH THE CYCLONE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BROWN

:blowup:
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#98 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Sep 07, 2006 4:31 pm

Yeah, sucked up another invest. Never had much hope for this one when Florence developed. Flo shows who's boss of the tropical atlantic. :D
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#99 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 07, 2006 4:34 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Yeah, sucked up another invest. Never had much hope for this one when Florence developed. Flo shows who's boss of the tropical atlantic. :D


And sucked 98L too. :)
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#100 Postby JtSmarts » Thu Sep 07, 2006 4:37 pm

Florence is like the blob. :lol: :lol: :eek:
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