TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

[cycloneye]

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[Evil Jeremy]

its windfield expanded alot!

[wxman57]

its windfield expanded alot!

Actually, the heavy squalls are quite detached from the center. There are no TS force winds within 100 miles of the center, most likely. That doesn't mean it's getting bigger, just that it's poorly-organized.

[flhurricaneguy]

that windfield is huge! she wont have to get too close to the US to feel her.

[MiamiensisWx]

As the ULL moves more in tandem with Florence to the northwest, a continued just north of due west motion of the LLC may just continue through the next six to eight hours. This is evidenced by close observation of the synoptics playing out on this visible loop. Thus, I think the NHC track may just initialize a more west-northwest turn a few hours too soon, thus lending possibility that the forecast track may be just a bit too far east. Nevertheless, tricky synoptics to forecast, but just an observation here.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

let's hope this does become a fish. could you imagine a major hurricane with Florence's size hitting the US??? It could very well be a FL, SC AND NC hit!

I remember a big storm taking days to cross through the state of FL (Jeane or Frances??) and it just kept raining and raining. This would be a lot worse I bet!

[flhurricaneguy]

it was frances i remember that too its started on a thursday night and didnt stop until sunday morning

[Stratosphere747]

its windfield expanded alot!

Actually, the heavy squalls are quite detached from the center. There are no TS force winds within 100 miles of the center, most likely. That doesn't mean it's getting bigger, just that it's poorly-organized.

The majority are looking at the convection and thinking this is a great looking system, when it's obviously not quite there. Still at least another day or so..

[Sanibel]

If Florence can get the ULL to its SW it will vent it causing organization and strengthening.

[Damar91]

According to the coordinates, it actually went .1 degree south since the 5am advisory. Would someone please explain how this is wnw?

[Bailey1777]

WXMAN 57 if you get time could you do one of your graphics with IR showing the center vs. convection because in my opinion she is still pretty ugly.

[Damar91]

WXMAN 57 if you get time could you do one of your graphics with IR showing the center vs. convection because in my opinion she is still pretty ugly.

I agree with you on this one Bailey; not looking very organized, yet.

[cycloneye]

Even if Florence will not affect directly the U.S.East coast,the surfurs will be delighted as big swells will arrive at the East Coast.Also the facing north coasts of the Leewards,BVI,U.S VI and Puerto Rico will have increasing big swells during the weekend.The folks in Bermuda will have to prepare for a near miss or a direct hit from Florence if the new NHC track verifies.

[CrazyC83]

let's hope this does become a fish. could you imagine a major hurricane with Florence's size hitting the US??? It could very well be a FL, SC AND NC hit!

I remember a big storm taking days to cross through the state of FL (Jeane or Frances??) and it just kept raining and raining. This would be a lot worse I bet!

The angle it is moving, it could be an end-to-end hit affecting everyone from at least the Carolinas to New England...

[HURAKAN]

let's hope this does become a fish. could you imagine a major hurricane with Florence's size hitting the US??? It could very well be a FL, SC AND NC hit!

I remember a big storm taking days to cross through the state of FL (Jeane or Frances??) and it just kept raining and raining. This would be a lot worse I bet!

The angle it is moving, it could be an end-to-end hit affecting everyone from at least the Carolinas to New England...

Too early to make such statement.

[Derek Ortt]

the 5 a.m. position was an error; thus, it is moving WNW

[Sanibel]

My guess is the reason it is in this near-stall is because it is about to bounce WNW again. Systems running into a synoptic border sometimes stall like this before nudging poleward past the obstruction.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

As the ULL moves more in tandem with Florence to the northwest, a continued just north of due west motion of the LLC may just continue through the next six to eight hours. This is evidenced by close observation of the synoptics playing out on this visible loop. Thus, I think the NHC track may just initialize a more west-northwest turn a few hours too soon, thus lending possibility that the forecast track may be just a bit too far east. Nevertheless, tricky synoptics to forecast, but just an observation here.

The ULL is moving to the SW as per water vapor and the NHC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[cpdaman]

let me propose this

the ULL just northwest of the system seems to be closer than earlier forecasts suggested. it seems the shear from this ULL will continue to increase slightly as florence gets closer to it. (based on the ull moving sw/wsw and florence moving w/wnw.

now this sheering should continue to keep the center displaced IMO as it should be steady or increasing (the shear from ULL)

so flo could stay weaker longer and the easterlies could have more influence on its track as the storm probably remain weak for another 36 hours (at minimum) and maybe longer unless something else happens will this ULL (which is shearing flo right now ) it seems the models did not take into account the higher levels of shear and thus ( there forecast calling for strengthening continuing throughout the next two days at a decent pace.) as i don't see this ull getting in a "good spot" in at least that time if at all

bottom line i expect flo to be weaker and POSSIBLy move further west over the next couple days. anyone else see this as logical

[MiamiensisWx]

The ULL is moving to the SW as per water vapor and the NHC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

I meant that the ULL was positioned northwest of Florence and was moving in tandem west-southwest to southwest. Just wanted to clarify.