TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#241 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:24 pm

im seeing torpical storm or hurricane watches possible for the Puerto Rico area soon if thi keeps up.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#242 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:25 pm

IF she does become Tip sized (HIGHLY UNLIKELY!) Then the whole east coast will be in trouble.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Trugunzn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 549
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:59 pm

#243 Postby Trugunzn » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:25 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:im seeing torpical storm or hurricane watches possible for the Puerto Rico area soon if thi keeps up.


I wouldnt be surprise if they do
0 likes   

tgenius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1160
Joined: Mon May 15, 2006 5:31 pm
Location: Miami, FL

#244 Postby tgenius » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:25 pm

gatorcane whats your thoughts.. you buying the models all being pretty much COMPLETELY in agreement, or you think that florence will miss it and keep west.. my only contention against it is simply due to the shear size she has...
0 likes   

User avatar
Damar91
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 551
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:06 pm
Location: Coral Springs, FL

#245 Postby Damar91 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:26 pm

gatorcane wrote:Florence is currently sucking up 91L and is now part of its banding. It's like she is the mother ship out there and sucking everything with it.


:fools:

We could get feeder bands down here in south florida and canada as well!
0 likes   

Rainband

#246 Postby Rainband » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:26 pm

gatorcane wrote:Some pro mets are saying she will encompass the entire Western Atlantic before all is done and be larger than Wilma and Katrina :eek: :eek: :eek:
Who said that??
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#247 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:26 pm

Ok where is the Secondary Shortwave that is expected to swing down and weaken the ridge.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#248 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:28 pm

tgenius wrote:gatorcane whats your thoughts.. you buying the models all being pretty much COMPLETELY in agreement, or you think that florence will miss it and keep west.. my only contention against it is simply due to the shear size she has...


she is getting so large that you would think she'll be effected by any slight weakness and want to go poleward the first moment she can. The only chance it going westward is if she somehow slows down enough to miss the weakness of the EC, but supposedly there are a series of shortwaves expected to sweep through over the next week (so if the first one doesn't get her, one of the subsequent ones should).
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#249 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:28 pm

Rainband wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Some pro mets are saying she will encompass the entire Western Atlantic before all is done and be larger than Wilma and Katrina :eek: :eek: :eek:
Who said that??


Derek Ortt was one that said it could... :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
sfwx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 371
Age: 59
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:53 pm
Location: Rural St. Lucie County, Fl

#250 Postby sfwx » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:29 pm

The models are as tightly clustered now as I have seen for any storm this year. I think the NHC is pretty confident of their track.

Eric
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#251 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:30 pm

If those models were pointing at Florida right now I would be already evacuating she is so monstrous.
0 likes   

Rainband

#252 Postby Rainband » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:34 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Rainband wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Some pro mets are saying she will encompass the entire Western Atlantic before all is done and be larger than Wilma and Katrina :eek: :eek: :eek:
Who said that??


Derek Ortt was one that said it could... :eek:
Will and could are very different. :wink:
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34091
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#253 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:35 pm

If it gets that big, you could fit ALL 31 systems from last year into it...
0 likes   

Bailey1777
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 962
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:23 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

#254 Postby Bailey1777 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:40 pm

To put it in perspective look at the grids the convection fills in right now 2 x 2 then look at the GOM and what 2x2 looks like there and thats with a sheared T.S.
0 likes   

User avatar
Damar91
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 551
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:06 pm
Location: Coral Springs, FL

#255 Postby Damar91 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:40 pm

You can tell it's getting late. :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5350
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

#256 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:40 pm

People up in northern new england and Canada tend to take tropical activity lightly. Hurricane Debby in 1982 went Cat 5 at a high latitude.

Hurricanes do run on the relative heat differential between the surface and upper atmosphere after all.
0 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4839
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

#257 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:43 pm

Take a look at the MM5 at 120 hrs to see how huge this storm could get - it is so large, it contains a low pressure trough that extends from it into the SW GOM. If this model verified, sea level pressure would fall in a wide arc below 1006 mb across most of the FL peninsula, southern GOM, and western Caribbean - with the main storm center well off into the Atlantic.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.40.png
0 likes   

User avatar
Damar91
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 551
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:06 pm
Location: Coral Springs, FL

#258 Postby Damar91 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:45 pm

This could be one of those hurricanes from The Day After Tommorow! :eek:
0 likes   

Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:

#259 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:45 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:im seeing torpical storm or hurricane watches possible for the Puerto Rico area soon if thi keeps up.


You should seriously back up those statements with some semblance of reasoning.

There are many Caribbean "lurkers" that would be taken aback by such a statement and would expect nothing less than some sound reasoning....
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#260 Postby Normandy » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:47 pm

I dont get how this storm could move NE with a high (to it north) sliding east with it....can a pro met explain?
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: gib, Google [Bot], LarryWx, stormzilla24, TreasureIslandFLGal, Ulf, zal0phus and 61 guests