Is the gap closing.....

[dixiebreeze]

Does anyone else think that maybe the window of opportunity for Flo to recurve around the ridge is gradually closing?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-l.jpg

[gatorcane]

no I don't, can you explain your reasoning?

[dixiebreeze]

no I don't, can you explain your reasoning?

Not really, except that it simply appears that way. Just a hunch from studying the climactic conditions.

[gatorcane]

I see this huge trough along the EC and shortwaves coming in behind it. I see 0% chance of it not recurving.

In fact if you look at your water vapor loop the "high clouds" being pulled out to the WNW and then NW clearly show the path that this thing will take already (its a hint of where it will go).

[SouthFloridawx]

no I don't, can you explain your reasoning?

Not really, except that it simply appears that way. Just a hunch from studying the climactic conditions.

I have a hunch that the gap for such a rapid recurvature is closing a little faster than progged.

Here are some comments that I am having with a friend on this subject. Please keep in mind this is merely conjecture and not an official forecast or a forecast of any type. Just trying to get handle on the synoptics that are to affect the eventual track of this system.


Yes I am extremely puzzeled about the lack of mention of the shortwave after this totally changed the forecast track and with model consensus why should they change it. Perhaps a piece of energy on the southern end of the trough appears that it is possible to be the candidate for what the models are progging.

With large ridge building in behind a trough that is not being reinforced would lead me to believe that the trough may break down or pull out faster than expected.

I have seen no comment on the shortwave that was the main feature expected to enhance the trough off the east coast. This is certainly puzzling.

If Florence pulls out as quick as forecasted by the NHC and the models suggest... I would be suprised.

With such a large system in the works I see some implications of the current synoptics are playing out as we speak. Tonight and tomorrow are very big days of the evolution of this system. Also if the system remains weak as it currently is I do not see as much control by the mid level ridging as once thought.

[dixiebreeze]

I absolutely agree, SouthFlorida. I expect to see some change in the models in the next day or so.

[gatorcane]

no I don't, can you explain your reasoning?

Not really, except that it simply appears that way. Just a hunch from studying the climactic conditions.

I have a hunch that the gap for such a rapid recurvature is closing a little faster than progged.

Here are some comments that I am having with a friend on this subject. Please keep in mind this is merely conjecture and not an official forecast or a forecast of any type. Just trying to get handle on the synoptics that are to affect the eventual track of this system.


Yes I am extremely puzzeled about the lack of mention of the shortwave after this totally changed the forecast track and with model consensus why should they change it. Perhaps a piece of energy on the southern end of the trough appears that it is possible to be the candidate for what the models are progging.

With large ridge building in behind a trough that is not being reinforced would lead me to believe that the trough may break down or pull out faster than expected.

I have seen no comment on the shortwave that was the main feature expected to enhance the trough off the east coast. This is certainly puzzling.

If Florence pulls out as quick as forecasted by the NHC and the models suggest... I would be suprised.

With such a large system in the works I see some implications of the current synoptics are playing out as we speak. Tonight and tomorrow are very big days of the evolution of this system. Also if the system remains weak as it currently is I do not see as much control by the mid level ridging as once thought.

interesting but I highly doubt it will be a problem for the US EC....just my thinking

[dixiebreeze]

Nevertheless, gator, if I was in the Bahamas (which I will be in Nov.), I'd be very much on the alert for Flo.

[Josephine96]

If you're in the Bahamas.. ya also better be watching in Fla too.. Just my 2 cents if Flo Jo makes it that far..

[gatorcane]

Nevertheless, gator, if I was in the Bahamas (which I will be in Nov.), I'd be very much on the alert for Flo.

Why, Flo is already at the lattitude of the Bahamas? There is a substantial trough that runs from the SW GOM all the way up the EC to Novia Scotia....its a huge barrier just blocking everything from going west. Then if you look up around the Great Lakes Region, you see yet another shortwave about ready to plunge down and reinforce the EC trough currently in place.

There is very, very, little chance Ernesto will make much more progress west once it rounds the periphery of the mid-atlantic ridge it is riding right now (and the only reason why it is moving west)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[dixiebreeze]

Well, gator, that's what makes S2K the place to be during this season -- varying opinions. Guess we all just have to wait it out.

[Josephine96]

Florence.. not Ernesto..

[gatorcane]

Well, gator, that's what makes S2K the place to be during this season -- varying opinions. Guess we all just have to wait it out.

you always go against the grain

[Josephine96]

Gator- remember.. A broken clock is right 2x a day.. {Not comparing dixie's thoughts to a broken clock} but saying anything can happen..

Flo Jo has a 50/50 chance of making it all the way across because of a simple equation. Either she will.. or she won't..

[SouthFloridawx]

Nevertheless, gator, if I was in the Bahamas (which I will be in Nov.), I'd be very much on the alert for Flo.

Why, Flo is already at the lattitude of the Bahamas? There is a substantial trough that runs from the SW GOM all the way up the EC to Novia Scotia....its a huge barrier just blocking everything from going west. Then if you look up around the Great Lakes Region, you see yet another shortwave about ready to plunge down and reinforce the EC trough currently in place.

There is very, very, little chance Ernesto will make much more progress west once it rounds the periphery of the mid-atlantic ridge it is riding right now (and the only reason why it is moving west)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Interesting enough we are both looking at the same shortwave and I'm seeing a much weaker feature that you see. The last shortwave showed up very well on the 200mb vorticity as it dipped down into Southeast United States. This one is not seen very well at all. In fact look at the WV loop it is kind of hard to pick it out.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

Perhaps a secondary peice of energy appears to be in the same region as Lousiana area. This may very well be the energy that is going to reinforce the trough.

Very interesting though as the synoptics are not playing out as in the Discussions from flo a couple of days ago.

[Thunder44]

no I don't, can you explain your reasoning?

Not really, except that it simply appears that way. Just a hunch from studying the climactic conditions.

I have a hunch that the gap for such a rapid recurvature is closing a little faster than progged.

Here are some comments that I am having with a friend on this subject. Please keep in mind this is merely conjecture and not an official forecast or a forecast of any type. Just trying to get handle on the synoptics that are to affect the eventual track of this system.


Yes I am extremely puzzeled about the lack of mention of the shortwave after this totally changed the forecast track and with model consensus why should they change it. Perhaps a piece of energy on the southern end of the trough appears that it is possible to be the candidate for what the models are progging.

With large ridge building in behind a trough that is not being reinforced would lead me to believe that the trough may break down or pull out faster than expected.

I have seen no comment on the shortwave that was the main feature expected to enhance the trough off the east coast. This is certainly puzzling.

If Florence pulls out as quick as forecasted by the NHC and the models suggest... I would be suprised.

With such a large system in the works I see some implications of the current synoptics are playing out as we speak. Tonight and tomorrow are very big days of the evolution of this system. Also if the system remains weak as it currently is I do not see as much control by the mid level ridging as once thought.

It doesn't really matter what shortwave it is that takes this storm out to sea. The pattern is already set-up for this storm to turn north before 70W. A large trough has already carved out on the east coast and the ridge has been erroded over the West Atlantic. Several impluses developing off the SE coast, like 92L ,are also going to break down the ridge more, before it can build back west again.

Since the storm is heading towards the West Atlantic at a steady pace now, it's very likely to encounter the weakness in the ridge now and turn north. It's not certain which shortwave will do it, but the storm will probably already be moving north at a longitude east of the US, perhaps posing a threat to Nova Scotia or New Foundland. It has very little chance then, of turning back west.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well, gator, that's what makes S2K the place to be during this season -- varying opinions. Guess we all just have to wait it out.

you always go against the grain

This is not going against the grain. This is legitimate... we are not -removed- anything but, merely noticing how the synoptics are playing out right now. The NHC had said that a secondary shortwave was expected to weaken the western flank of the ridge.

[storms in NC]

The NHC had said that a secondary shortwave was expected to weaken the western flank of the ridge

Could you explain this to me? Dumb here

[SouthFloridawx]

The NHC had said that a secondary shortwave was expected to weaken the western flank of the ridge

Could you explain this to me? Dumb here

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/di ... .008.shtml?

THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT WILL BE THE
MAIN STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
FLORENCE MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. BY DAY 5...ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE RIDGE TO NORTH OF FLORENCE AND ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE
VERDICT IS STILL OUT ON THE SCENARIO GIVEN THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED IN THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.

[donsutherland1]

Dixiebreeze,

Right now, the modeled ridging just doesn't appear sufficient to preclude recurvature. Here's what the map should look like with respect to SE Canada for a landfalling storm for NC and northward:



If one adjusts the above normal height anomalies of a similar magnitude farther south, one gets a classic setup for storms that make landfall south of NC.

At present, the guidance shows much weaker anomalies and that hasn't changed much in recent days. So, recurvature still appears to be far more likely than U.S. landfall.