Any chance florence will stay moving west and....

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Noah
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Any chance florence will stay moving west and....

#1 Postby Noah » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:13 pm

Possible east coast florida storm?
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gatorcane
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#2 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:14 pm

I highly doubt it but it is scary when you look at this loop and you see not signs of any turning (and it is still under 25N)...

turn should gradually happen later today and into tomorrow. *should*

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby Meso » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:15 pm

1/100 000 chance... So easiest just to say no.. Unless physics fails...
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#4 Postby Nimbus » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:19 pm

Looks a little west of the official track currently. A track just a few degrees further west would make a big difference for Bermuda.
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#5 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:19 pm

Nimbus wrote:Looks a little west of the official track currently. A track just a few degrees further west would make a big difference for Bermuda.


definitely west of the forecast track so far....
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#6 Postby Damar91 » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:19 pm

If it does, I think you will see every pro-met quit from total frustration. But seriously, no, it won't.
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#7 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:24 pm

Highly doubt it. I'd be shocked if it got past 70°W (and basically spares Bermuda but gives Atlantic Canada a greater impact).
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#8 Postby storms in NC » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:29 pm

It could go more west. I wouldn't put nothing pass this storms this year. They have broke every book this year. It is like I am not going to do what you say I will do what I want so there.LOL :lol:
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#9 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:30 pm

storms in NC wrote:It could go more west. I wouldn't put nothing pass this storms this year. They have broke every book this year. It is like I am not going to do what you say I will do what I want so there.LOL :lol:



ooooooooo. lol :roll: :eek: :grrr:
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Re: Any chance florence will stay moving west and....

#10 Postby donsutherland1 » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:31 pm

Noah,

Chances of that happening are remote. A big weakness in the ridging is strongly supported on the computer guidance e.g., the NCEP ensemble mean 500 mb anomalies for 48 hours show the following:

Image

For FL landfall, the above normal height anomalies would need to contain no such weakness/break and their magnitude would need to exceed what is depicted.
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#11 Postby Stormavoider » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:32 pm

Looking at this image posted by Wxman57, It can not hit Florida. The only surprise I could imagine it a hard turn to the south through Haiti.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence29.gif
Last edited by Stormavoider on Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#12 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:33 pm

Stormavoider wrote:Looking at this image posted by Wxman57, It can not hit Florida. The only surprise I could imagine it a hard turn to the south through Haiti.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence29.gif


how could it turn SW into Haiti :eek:
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#13 Postby fci » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:39 pm

Stormavoider wrote:Looking at this image posted by Wxman57, It can not hit Florida. The only surprise I could imagine it a hard turn to the south through Haiti.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence29.gif


Wouldn't this image show that a turn to the north would have occured at about 60 and if she skirted underneath it she would go south to Haiti and Cuba and then come around the ridge into the GOM?

I may just be reading this map wrong but a high centered over the Northern Bahamas?

I must just be confused here wiht this image or just not understand it.:?:
Last edited by fci on Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#14 Postby Stormavoider » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:39 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Stormavoider wrote:Looking at this image posted by Wxman57, It can not hit Florida. The only surprise I could imagine it a hard turn to the south through Haiti.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence29.gif


how could it turn SW into Haiti :eek:

It probably couldn't. Looking at 57's graphic it seems more likely than continuing west.
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#15 Postby skysummit » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:43 pm

Stormavoider wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Stormavoider wrote:Looking at this image posted by Wxman57, It can not hit Florida. The only surprise I could imagine it a hard turn to the south through Haiti.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence29.gif


how could it turn SW into Haiti :eek:

It probably couldn't. Looking at 57's graphic it seems more likely than continuing west.


LOL...wouldn't that be something. If it did actually move south a bit and then ride under that second ridge into the Carribean and then the gulf. Boy, that would completely blow all forecasts! :lol:
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#16 Postby Damar91 » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:44 pm

Unless I'm looking at it wrong, I believe the NW turn has already begun. This will not harm Florida.
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#17 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:46 pm

Damar91 wrote:Unless I'm looking at it wrong, I believe the NW turn has already begun. This will not harm Florida.


yep you are wrong about the turn happening - has not happened yet. But you are probably right about Florida though.
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#18 Postby Trugunzn » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:47 pm

Doesnt look like a NW turn, looks like the eye is wobbling around
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#19 Postby Damar91 » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:49 pm

Wobble Alert!!!! :eek:
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#20 Postby skysummit » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:49 pm

Trugunzn wrote:Doesnt look like a NW turn, looks like the eye is wobbling around


Well, that's impossible since there is no eye.
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