06z GFDL Depicts a 1008mb closed low in Eastern Carib.

#1 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 8:35 am

come the 13th of next week. Looks to me that it would have to be the low lattitude riding wave we've been watching.
Any thoughts?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 8:37 am

That's the sleeper I called from Africa.

#3 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 8:41 am

cycloneye wrote:That's the sleeper I called from Africa.

I remember that, it is still firing off some continuous convection this morning. I'm getting more concerned of this wave everyday that it continues. I see no reason why it couldn't develop further.

#4 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 8:45 am

If you speed up the animation you can make out a twist to the overall structure. Its getting into higher SST's and the UL looks favorable.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

#5 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 8:48 am

The GFDL looks to lose it as it heads it for Hispaniola, but that is questionable at this point as much as it's development.

x-y-no · #6 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 8:50 am

That run of the GFDL is fucused on Florence. You can get spurious products in the GFDL runs well away from the area of focus.

Not saying it won't happen, but I'd suggest looking for support in the runs of other models before getting too excited.

Sanibel · #7 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:33 am

If you watch the run it wipes it out too.

ronjon · #8 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:42 am

I dunno why this wave near 9N-45W is not an investigation yet? It clearly has maintained convection with a CC turning evident which shows at least an MLC if not an LLC. It appears to be in a favorable environment and looks to be moving W-NW. Yes, it doesn't have much model support but again most global models never develop tropical systems.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

Sanibel · #9 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:48 am

Looks like 91L formed a surface spiral right behind Florence. It should follow right up the same track.

I need a closer shot of 9-45. TWC said "no signs of development."

rockyman · #10 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:29 am

Here's another view of that GFDL run:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfd ... 906/8.html

DESTRUCTION5 · #11 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:50 am

ronjon wrote:I dunno why this wave near 9N-45W is not an investigation yet? It clearly has maintained convection with a CC turning evident which shows at least an MLC if not an LLC. It appears to be in a favorable environment and looks to be moving W-NW. Yes, it doesn't have much model support but again most global models never develop tropical systems.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

I can see a nice little LLC with 93L in that loop...Headed south of due west..

#12 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 11:57 am

x-y-no wrote:That run of the GFDL is fucused on Florence. You can get spurious products in the GFDL runs well away from the area of focus.

Not saying it won't happen, but I'd suggest looking for support in the runs of other models before getting too excited.

That's not so true, if its ignoring the synoptics around it what good would it be?

06z GFDL Depicts a 1008mb closed low in Eastern Carib.

06z GFDL Depicts a 1008mb closed low in Eastern Carib.

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