TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #7

[wxman57]

Judging from the last center fix from recon it appears that the Mid-Level and Low-Level circulation are not lined up very well. This could indicate that the system is still being sheared a bit as thought by Derek.

http://www.fileden.com/files/18682/199.jpg

That's not a circulation center to the northeast where you've identified a "MLC". It's a break in the cirrus clouds that is letting you see in between a couple of spiral bands.

[Derek Ortt]

the 11 A.M. discussion from NHC mentioned that the MLC was decoupled from the LLC, which is a tell tale sign of shear

[wxman57]

the 11 A.M. discussion from NHC mentioned that the MLC was decoupled from the LLC, which is a tell tale sign of shear

Yes, they did, but not by 100 miles as that satellite image indicated. Just by a few tenths of a degree - and to the northwest, not northeast.

[SouthFloridawx]

Judging from the last center fix from recon it appears that the Mid-Level and Low-Level circulation are not lined up very well. This could indicate that the system is still being sheared a bit as thought by Derek.

http://www.fileden.com/files/18682/199.jpg

That's not a circulation center to the northeast where you've identified a "MLC". It's a break in the cirrus clouds that is letting you see in between a couple of spiral bands.

I see what your talking about now... the loop I was looking at is not that many frames.

[Derek Ortt]

yeha, the NE feature is not the center, not by a long shot

Latest imagery shows that the convection is expanding slightly to the south, maybe the shear is dropping just a little and will allow this system to start intensifying, as has been long forecast

[Stormavoider]

[url=http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-61&map=latlon&quality=100%&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=10&palette=spect.pal]This[/url] may border on misuse of this product because the color is more indicative of sun angle. But, it does allow you to really see the blob detail in this visible image.

[Trugunzn]

Looks like its going sw last few frames?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-avn.html

[carve]

still looks to be moving west

[Derek Ortt]

It's not moving west

It's not moving SW

Are the mets here talking to a wall?

That is Florence actually organizing and the storms are building over the center

[CrazyC83]

It's definitely moving NW or slightly WNW at the most. The Recon is just at the periphery now.

[Derek Ortt]

SE and levatating

[whereverwx]

Is it possible that she can do something similar to Alex (2004) when she moves northeast?

[CrazyC83]

Is it possible that she can do something similar to Alex (2004) when she moves northeast?

What do you mean?

[Sanibel]

They mean get really strong at a high latitude.


You can see Florence's upper part being taken by the trough as it impacts it.

[wxman57]

Is it possible that she can do something similar to Alex (2004) when she moves northeast?

Once Florence starts moving to the north and northeast it'll rapidly accelerate out to sea and begin losing tropical characteristics.

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[SouthFloridawx]

SE and levatating

[SouthFloridawx]

SE and levatating

I would like to add to that. Derek I think I sense a bit of humor coming from you. Is this the case? If it is... this is a rare occasion.

[Derek Ortt]

aircraft data indicates that there is no better orgnization now than there was 12 hours ago.

Good news for Bermuda, if this keeps up, they won't see anything more than a cat 1

[Brent]

Blah.

What is wrong with this season?!