Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

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Thunder44
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#501 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:29 am

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#502 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:42 am

376
URNT12 KNHC 100539
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/05:24:10Z
B. 27 deg 00 min N
065 deg 11 min W
C. 850 mb 1275 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 300 deg 045 kt
G. 230 deg 029 nm
H. 981 mb
I. 16 C/ 1831 m
J. 22 C/ 1828 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF301 0306A FLORENCE OB 05
MAX FL WIND 45 KT SW QUAD 05:12:30 Z

Likely a hurricane! 981mb
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#503 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:46 am

981mb found in latest vortex with a closed wall...
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#504 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:47 am

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#505 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:49 am

Delayed. I am going to bed - someone else please take over?
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#506 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:51 am

CrazyC83 wrote:981mb found in latest vortex with a closed wall...


Yeah, that's close to Cat 2 strength. Will be interesting to see what winds they find, because it's definitely ot a hurricane strength in SW Quad.
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#507 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:52 am

CrazyC83 wrote:981mb found in latest vortex with a closed wall...

:eek: That's weird. I wonder what Florence has next for us. One day she is not doing anything, next day strengthening slowly, next day weakening, next day rapidly strengthening, ect.
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#508 Postby Andrew92 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:55 am

WE HAVE A HURRICANE!

Statement as of 2:00 am AST on September 10, 2006



...Florence reaches hurricane strength...

a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A
Hurricane Warning will likely be issued later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 200 am AST...0600z...the center of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 27.1 north...longitude 65.2 west or about 360
miles...580 km...south of Bermuda.

Florence is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph...20
km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue this morning with a
turn toward the north later today.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph...120
km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Florence a category one
hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale. Some additional
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Florence remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km from the center. Tropical
storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles...415 km from the
center.

Reconnaissance aircraft just reported a minimum central pressure of
981 mb...28.97 inches.

Storm surge values of 6 to 8 feet will be possible along the coast
of Bermuda as Florence passes near the island.

Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions... including strong
rip currents...are already affecting Bermuda...as well as the
northern Leeward Islands...the Virgin Islands...Puerto Rico...
Hispaniola and the Bahamas. These conditions will begin to affect
areas of the East Coast of the United States this morning. See
statements from local Weather Service offices for details on
coastal conditions.

Repeating the 200 am AST position...27.1 N...65.2 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75 mph.
Minimum central pressure...981 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 500 am AST.

$$
Forecaster Mainelli/Franklin
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#509 Postby dwsqos2 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:58 am

819
UZNT13 KNHC 100555
XXAA 60068 99273 70648 07974 99987 26003 13054 00614 ///// /////
92574 22201 15063 85309 19202 15561 88999 77999
31313 09608 80532
61616 AF301 0306A FLORENCE OB 07
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2729N06483W 0535 MBL WND 14060 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 15060 987830 WL150 13056 075 =
XXBB 60068 99273 70648 07974 00987 26003 11850 19202 22821 18000
33812 19000
21212 00987 13054 11940 14564 22925 15063 33915 15057 44904 15061
55889 14556 66879 15060 77850 15561 88812 16068
31313 09608 80532
61616 AF301 0306A FLORENCE OB 07
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2729N06483W 0535 MBL WND 14060 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 15060 987830 WL150 13056 075 =

987 mb; 54 knots at the surface; MBL winds of 60 knots.
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#510 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:04 am

981 millibars is a strong enough pressure field to support 75 knots. But this must be very broad to not have hurricane force winds.
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#511 Postby dwsqos2 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:05 am

479
UZNT13 KNHC 100601
XXAA 60058 99270 70652 07975 99981 27205 25511 00671 ///// /////
92521 23804 26013 85260 20403 25009 88999 77999
31313 09608 80524
61616 AF301 0306A FLORENCE OB 06
62626 SPL 2698N06518W 0526 MBL WND 26012 AEV 20604 DLM WND 25512
981837 WL150 26012 075 =
XXBB 60058 99270 70652 07975 00981 27205 11850 20403 22828 19407
33812 20456
21212 00981 25511 11921 25513 22850 25009 33838 24508 44812 26009
31313 09608 80524
61616 AF301 0306A FLORENCE OB 06
62626 SPL 2698N06518W 0526 MBL WND 26012 AEV 20604 DLM WND 25512
981837 WL150 26012 075 =


981 mb; surface winds of 11 knots.
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#512 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:07 am

I personally went with 75 knots for my estimate.
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#513 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:09 am

Since the drosponde in the "eye" reported back a surface wind at 11kts. The pressure is probably as low as 980mb.
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#514 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:20 am

URNT11 KNHC 100608
97779 06074 10286 6330/ 18300 14055 16159 /2472
RMK AF301 0306A FLORENCE OB 08
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#515 Postby Coredesat » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:22 am

047
URNT11 KNHC 100608
97779 06074 10286 6330/ 18300 14055 16159 /2472
RMK AF301 0306A FLORENCE OB 08

There haven't been any obs since this status message.
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#516 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:26 am

317
URNT14 KNHC 100618
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01255 10667 12473 11611 31027
02257 20665 22462 21612 32038
03259 30663 32452 31514 32038
04261 40661 42437 41514 31038
05262 50659 52418 51616 31040
06264 60658 62394 61616 31041
07266 70656 72368 71616 30044
08269 80654 82323 82017 31028
MF267 M0656 MF045
OBS 01 AT 04:43:50Z
OBS 08 AT 05:17:00Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01271 10649 12298 11818 18046
02273 20647 22347 21515 16060
03275 30645 32386 31414 14073
04277 40644 42413 41713 15067
05279 50642 52433 51616 14055
06280 60640 62442 61616 14055
07282 70638 72453 71616 14054
08284 80636 82461 81716 14057
09286 90634 92468 91714 14053
MF274 M0646 MF084
OBS 01 AT 05:30:00Z
OBS 09 AT 06:05:20Z
OBS 09 SFC WND /////
AF301 0306A FLORENCE OB 09

84kts at FL level!
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#517 Postby Coredesat » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:29 am

My recon decoder says 84 mph, not 84 kt.
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#518 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:31 am

Team Ragnarok wrote:My recon decoder says 84 mph, not 84 kt.


The maximum windspeed is for the outbound leg (NE Quad) is 84kts, in the line that I bolded. They always report back windspeeds in knots.
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Hurricane Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread

#519 Postby CajunMama » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:38 am

Have at it! :lol:
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#520 Postby Swimdude » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:40 am

It's about flippin' time. I'm not excited for Bermuda... But she took long enough huh!
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