Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Dean4Storms]

There is a strong front expected to sweep through the SE by mid to late week. If it misses that look out Florida!

[Coredesat]

That was weird. It was gone for a few minutes.

[Zardoz]

It's really shaping up:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[WeatherEmperor]

The 18Z GFDL shoots 93L straight up.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_93.gif

<RICKY>

[SWFLA_CANE]

It's really shaping up:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Looks like it still needs some more separation from flo.

[Bgator]

Flight has been added for tomorrow 2PM:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE... ADDED.
A. 11/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
C. 11/1600Z
D. 20.0N 58.0W
E. 1730Z TO 2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TEAL 70

[fci]

When do YOU all think this will develop...My bet is 11AM tomorrow, if, and only if, convection persists, i think they will send in recon the day after(tuesday)...What do you think!

This human says no earlier than 11 AM.

[stormchazer]

There is a strong front expected to sweep through the SE by mid to late week. If it misses that look out Florida!

I think it is likely to recurve as well, or clip the Carolinas while recurvung. The coming trough looks to be deep and Florences weakness will at minimum, edge 93L North.

My opinion though.

[Bgator]

I think we wont know where it goes till the models recognize it as a depression, and see how fast it is moving, as of now, it doesnt look to be following florence...

[Bgator]

8:05 TWD...Now a Special Feature.....

A small area of low pressure located near 21n54w...or about 550
miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands is moving westward
near 10 kt. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become more
concentrated near the circulation center and a tropical
depression could form tonight or tomorrow. Numerous
moderate/isolated strong convection noted from 16n-22n between
52-57w.

[Bgator]

Its all going so fast! TCFA issued!!



SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 110001Z SEP 06//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE 21.0N 54.0W TO 22.0N 60.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 21.0N 54.0W HAS BEEN MOVING WESTERLY
FOR THE LAST 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HURRICANE FLORENCE INHIBITING IT'S DEVELOPMENT. A BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NEAR THE LOW CENTER OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ENHANCING
THE DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION WITH WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ANALYZED
OVER THE AREA. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR LOCATED ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND LESSER ANTILLES RANGES FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
AT THE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN ANALYZED AT 81F(27C). CURRENT
MOVEMENT INTO WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL ALSO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.
THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT FORECAST IS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT
72 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120001Z SEP 06.//

[brunota2003]

HOLY CRAP! I just issued a HC for you guys...and BTW...HOLY CRAP!!! first at 5:30 possible TD tonight/tomorrow...then recon around 8 PM...Special Feature at 8:05 PM...and now at 8:15 a TCFA...just wow...if it keeps going like this, it might as well be a hurricane at 11 AM...

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the alert.

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 110001Z SEP 06//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE 21.0N 54.0W TO 22.0N 60.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 21.0N 54.0W HAS BEEN MOVING WESTERLY
FOR THE LAST 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HURRICANE FLORENCE INHIBITING IT'S DEVELOPMENT. A BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NEAR THE LOW CENTER OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ENHANCING
THE DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION WITH WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ANALYZED
OVER THE AREA. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR LOCATED ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND LESSER ANTILLES RANGES FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
AT THE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN ANALYZED AT 81F(27C). CURRENT
MOVEMENT INTO WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL ALSO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.
THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT FORECAST IS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT
72 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120001Z SEP 06.//

[CronkPSU]

wow...things got very interesting with this storm very quickly...what is up with the west/wnw expected movement...i thought the models were saying NNW/N within 24 hours?

[wxman57]

Looks interesting tonight. Could be a TS tomorrow. Track should be to the north, about 250-300 miles east of Florence. No threat to any land areas:

[WindRunner]

Well, actually, the NHC's fixes on 93L have been pointing WSW since 18Z yesterday . . .

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/atcf/btk/bal932006.dat

[Bailey1777]

No down time that's a first. So now pro-mets I know it's early but what are you'll seeing. We hear alot of turning North very early on but advisory tells a little different tale.

[Derek Ortt]

GFDL does not take this system north.

The vortex tracker is actually tracking a piece of Florence

However, it simply dissipates the system

[wxman57]

No down time that's a first. So now pro-mets I know it's early but what are you'll seeing. We hear alot of turning North very early on but advisory tells a little different tale.

It's already at 20N with a sharp trof approaching in the wake of Florence. Nothing to drive it westward. It's almost certainly going north between 55W-60W.

[Bgator]

I understand what should set up, but why has it been moving W, and it is almost at 55W now, also why in the TCFA they say W-WNW is expected for 72 hours??