Hurricane Gordon - Cat. 3

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Evil Jeremy
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#201 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Nimbus wrote:That ULL to the northeast of Gordon is currently ventilating. Don't know what a stronger gordon will do to the model runs yet but its starting to get interesting with all these players!


And what will be the effect of Gordon on the track of TD8.Interesting scenarios with all of these features.


If gordon didnt decide the fate of TD8, this thread wouldnt be as popular!
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#202 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:51 pm

HURRICANE GORDON (AL072006) ON 20060913 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060913 0000 060913 1200 060914 0000 060914 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.0N 57.9W 25.8N 57.8W 27.9N 57.3W 29.9N 56.1W
BAMM 24.0N 57.9W 25.6N 58.0W 27.4N 57.9W 29.2N 57.4W
A98E 24.0N 57.9W 25.2N 57.9W 27.0N 57.9W 28.6N 57.2W
LBAR 24.0N 57.9W 25.6N 57.8W 27.5N 57.2W 29.3N 56.1W
SHIP 65KTS 76KTS 83KTS 86KTS
DSHP 65KTS 76KTS 83KTS 86KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060915 0000 060916 0000 060917 0000 060918 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.2N 54.2W 32.3N 52.8W 33.6N 53.2W 37.0N 51.7W
BAMM 30.5N 56.4W 31.8N 55.6W 33.0N 55.7W 36.9N 54.6W
A98E 29.9N 56.6W 30.4N 56.1W 30.8N 56.4W 34.7N 54.9W
LBAR 30.8N 54.7W 32.1N 51.7W 33.4N 49.4W 34.7N 47.4W
SHIP 86KTS 79KTS 64KTS 47KTS
DSHP 86KTS 79KTS 64KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.0N LONCUR = 57.9W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 22.8N LONM12 = 57.9W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 21.8N LONM24 = 57.6W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 50NM

00:00z Models upgrade to hurricane.
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ROCK
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#203 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:53 pm

it does look right of the forecast points......hmmmmm....
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#204 Postby Damar91 » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:55 pm

Could it be that Florence and Gordon's path could eventually bring TD8 to a theatre near you? Hmmmm
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#205 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:59 pm

Damar91 wrote:Could it be that Florence and Gordon's path could eventually bring TD8 to a theatre near you? Hmmmm


LOL :roflmao:
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#206 Postby Damar91 » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:07 pm

I mean think about the name Helene. It sounds like some kind of Greek goddess that is really ticked off! :eek:
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#207 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:22 pm

Image

Back-to-back-to-back hurricanes!!!
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#208 Postby whereverwx » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:33 pm

He's looking really good; nice outflow and convection. At the rate where he's going, he probably has a moderate chance of becoming our first major hurricane, but cat 2 seems more likely, mainly based on how this season has been so far.
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#209 Postby Scorpion » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:34 pm

I would say a Cat 3 is very likely, and could actually occur soon. He appears to be rapidly deepening.
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#210 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:41 pm

The next trough is going to scoop this puppy out.
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#211 Postby mtm4319 » Tue Sep 12, 2006 9:00 pm

The open spot has closed back up, which leads me to think it may have just been a roughly-circular break in the convection. Still looks like a 65-kt hurricane though.
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#212 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Sep 12, 2006 9:14 pm

Hopefully Gordon won't vacation in FL as he did in 2000, and boy was that a scream.
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#213 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Sep 12, 2006 11:06 pm

it appears that it is going through an ERC.
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#214 Postby senorpepr » Tue Sep 12, 2006 11:18 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:it appears that it is going through an ERC.


Hmmm...

Image


You need a little stronger hurricane (i.e. at least category three) before ERCs can happen.
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#215 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:56 am

HURRICANE GORDON (AL072006) ON 20060913 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060913 1200 060914 0000 060914 1200 060915 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.5N 57.8W 27.7N 57.2W 30.0N 55.7W 31.7N 53.6W
BAMM 25.5N 57.8W 27.5N 57.4W 29.4N 56.4W 30.9N 54.9W
A98E 25.5N 57.8W 27.2N 57.4W 29.1N 56.5W 30.7N 55.2W
LBAR 25.5N 57.8W 27.4N 57.2W 29.5N 56.1W 31.3N 54.7W
SHIP 75KTS 82KTS 85KTS 84KTS
DSHP 75KTS 82KTS 85KTS 84KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060915 1200 060916 1200 060917 1200 060918 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.7N 51.9W 35.0N 49.4W 36.8N 44.9W 37.5N 38.5W
BAMM 31.7N 54.0W 33.9N 52.4W 36.9N 49.6W 41.1N 42.1W
A98E 32.1N 54.3W 33.5N 53.6W 36.3N 51.7W 42.1N 42.1W
LBAR 32.5N 53.0W 34.7N 49.3W 36.2N 45.2W 37.7N 40.5W
SHIP 81KTS 70KTS 58KTS 53KTS
DSHP 81KTS 70KTS 58KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.5N LONCUR = 57.8W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 24.0N LONM12 = 58.1W DIRM12 = 8DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 22.8N LONM24 = 58.3W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 980MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 80NM RD34SW = 80NM RD34NW = 80NM

Gordon more stronger this morning now up to 75kts.
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#216 Postby Bane » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:38 am

He looks very good in satellite images today.
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#217 Postby Buck » Wed Sep 13, 2006 9:02 am

A very round and beautiful storm.
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#218 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 13, 2006 9:10 am

Here's a nich high-res McIDAS image of Gordon. Looks like winds could be closer to 100 mph this morning. Possibly well on its way to becoming a major hurricane within 12 hours.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gordon12.gif
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#219 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 13, 2006 9:31 am

Image

Gordon going gorgeous!!!
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#220 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 13, 2006 9:36 am

80 kt or 90 mph at 11am.
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