The weakness may only be upper level

[Derek Ortt]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

this is the 200-850 mean layer analysis, clearly showing the weakness

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

250-850 mean layer analysis

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

not much in the 300-850 mean layer analysis

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

from 400-850 and lower, forget about it

The recent convective burst may help this move significantly north, since it is an upper level weakness

I still do not foresee this quite making it to the islands... but it may come a lot closer than the majority of the guidance is suggesting

[Scorpion]

Wow, very interesting. What if it stays weak for awhile?

[Derek Ortt]

which is why we need this to intensify quickly, so it takes the weakness and gets out of here

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Exactly. As a mentioned in another thread; Helen being weaker than the models keep showing is the big track problem here, that and being centered further South.

[Bgator]

Right now you would use the 700-850 Mean LAyer wouldnt you?

[Derek Ortt]

the system has a little more depth than that.

I'd at least use 400 if not 300 to 850

[wxman57]

Keep in mind that those streamline steering current charts are only a snapshot of today's flow. There can be very significant changes over the next 5 days. You really need to look at the 5-day forecast charts.

[Derek Ortt]

I know that is not going to hold and this wont come within 300 miles of the Caribbean

It's just that the weakness it is encountering today is not going to get this system... the next one... well... thats a different story

[TheRingo]

seems like alot of dry air in front could keep the intensity down.

[cycloneye]

Derek,Gordon is a none factor here right,as it has moved well northwest of Helene?

[Derek Ortt]

I'd say Gordon is a minor factor, unless it stalls soon

[Bgator]

Derek What direction do you think it is heading right now...Wxman says 300 degrees....im not so sure, what do you think...

[Jim Cantore]

Hey Derek, will Gordon bring any increased wave action to the east coast?

[wxman57]

I know that is not going to hold and this wont come within 300 miles of the Caribbean

It's just that the weakness it is encountering today is not going to get this system... the next one... well... thats a different story

Right, we have to be clear about which weakness Helene will miss. There are many here who don't realize we're talking about the 2nd system dropping off the east U.S. Coast this weekend. That system will slam the door any more westward progress of Helene in 4-5 days.

[curtadams]

seems like alot of dry air in front could keep the intensity down.

I don't expect dry air to do much to this storm. Any air reaching the center of this storm has to travel under hundred of miles of feeder storms first. It won't be dry when it gets there.

[Windtalker1]

I know that is not going to hold and this wont come within 300 miles of the Caribbean

It's just that the weakness it is encountering today is not going to get this system... the next one... well... thats a different story

Right, we have to be clear about which weakness Helene will miss. There are many here who don't realize we're talking about the 2nd system dropping off the east U.S. Coast this weekend. That system will slam the door any more westward progress of Helene in 4-5 days.

Wxman...our locals here id S Florida call this "A WEAK" cold front that suppose to fizzle out by Sunday and High Pressure is to build back in from West to east over us next week. They do not call that a strong cold front but one that will stall and fizzle out opening the door for a very strong High. What do you think?

[Blown Away]

Derek, your basically saying if Helene remains weaker she will turn closer to 55W rather than 50W, both scenarios have no effect on the islands, CONUS, or Bermuda.

[wxman57]

Wxman...our locals here id S Florida call this "A WEAK" cold front that suppose to fizzle out by Sunday and High Pressure is to build back in from West to east over us next week. They do not call that a strong cold front but one that will stall and fizzle out opening the door for a very strong High. What do you think?

There are multiple fronts moving off the east coast over the next week. One will stall before reaching S. Florida over the weekend. A second stronger front will make it just offshore all areas except maybe south FL Tuesday night, and the major trof axis swings by Thursday pushing the stronger front well offshore. That's the front/trof that'll pass Bermuda before Helene can get there.

[sfwx]

Windtalker,
The 2nd front will be here early next week.

SUN-MON...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTROL LOCAL WEATHER WITH DEEPER AIRMASS DRYING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO LAKE OKEE EARLY IN THE WEEK.

TUE-WED..TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS VEERING WINDS ALLOW FOR MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE AREA AND A RETURN TO SCT PRECIP BY TUE AFTERNOON.
APPROACHING FRONT AROUND WED WILL INCREASE POPS FURTHER WITH A MORE
REALISTIC CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO FORCED PARCEL ASCENT. WL PLAY
CONSERVATIVE APCH WITH ONLY SCT POPS DUE TO TIMING ADJUSTMENTS
LIKELY WITH NEXT FRONT THIS FAR OUT.

[LaBreeze]

Great! Bring on the fronts!