Thunder44's Hurricane Lane Forecast: 6am Update

[Thunder44]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

6am Forecast

As of 2am PDT Advisory, the NHC place the center of Hurricane Lane currently at 22.7N 107.0W or 50 miles SW of Mazatlan, Mexico and is moving North at 10mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 115mph and the pressure is 960mb. Please refer to all NHC products for emergency planning.

Lane continues to intensify this morning as now a dangerous Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115mph. She has a well-defined eye on infrared imagery and the upper-level environment is conducive for a little more strengthening this morning before making landfall later today or this evening. Then Lane will rapidly weaken after landfall and will be dissipating over the mountains of Mexico by tomorrow afternoon.

I expect Lane to continue her track northward today and make landfall very close to of El Dorado and move inland across Culiacan late this afternoon and this evening. However steering currents are weak around the area so some erratic motion is possible over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Even though I forecast Lane dissipate as a tropical cyclone by 36hrs, it’s remnant moisture will continue moving through Northern Mexico and into the SW US early next week causing flooding rains.

Forecast Points and Intensity

Initial 22.7N 107.0W 100kt
12hrs 24.5N 107.3W 90kt
24hrs 26.4N 107.3W 40kt
36hrs 28.4N 107.5W 25kt
48hrs ...Dissipated



Forecast times are in EDT.

[Dave C]

On radar Lane has classic double-eyewall, it may weaken some later unless it can finish the cycle before landfall.

[AussieMark]

I thought the weakening happened when the inner eyewall colapses?

[cycloneye]

Remember,Thunder44 about the hour changes as they are at the EPAC at PDT so that was the 2 AM Advisory.You see that I posted the 5 AM PDT one with 120 mph maximun winds.

[Thunder44]

Remember,Thunder44 about the hour changes as they are at the EPAC at PDT so that was the 2 AM Advisory.You see that I posted the 5 AM PDT one with 120 mph maximun winds.

I fixed it. I saw the 8am advisory and I already mentioned a possibility of more strenghtening before landfall. No changes to the forecast are needed.

[Thunder44]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

5pm Forecast: Lane moving inland

As of the 2am PDT Advisory, The NHC has Hurricane Lane at 24.4N 107.2W and moving toward the north near 10mph. Maximum sustained are at 120mph and a pressure at 957mb.

A Recon plane flew into Lane today and found that it strengthen since this morning and made landfall earlier at 12:15pm PDT 20 miles SE of Eldorado, Mexico with winds of 125 mph. Lane is weakening now that is has move over land and the forecast is for rapid weakening of the hurricane and it should be downgraded to a TS later tonight or tomorrow morning. My forecast calls for dissipation by 36hrs.

The forecast track has been updated but changed little. The low-level center of Lane is expected to track further north and dissipate over the mountains. Remnant moisture will continue to move north and northeastward in the SW US with flooding rains.

Forecast Points and Intensity:

Initial 24.N 107.2W 105kt
12hrs 26.2N 107.4W 55kt
24hrs 27.9N 107.5W 30kt
36hrs 29.6N 107.6W...Dissipated

[Thunder44]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

6am Update: Lane Dissipating Later Today

As of the 2am PDT Advisory, the NHC has place the center of TS Lane at 25.6 N...107.4 W or 100 east of Los Mochis, Mexico and is moving north at 7mph. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 50mph and pressure is at 997mb.

Lane appears to be weakening rapidly to depression ths morning on satellite imagery and will likely dissipate later today as it continues moving inland. I will not be making another forecast for this system, except for one that just calls for dissipation by 12hrs below. While there may not be a low-level circulation, Helene’s remnant moisture is still like to track in the Northern Mexico and SW US.

Forecast Intensity:

Initial 25.6N 107.4W 40kt
12hrs ...Dissipated