Tropical Depression 2-C in WPAC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

These systems are cool. When they get out of the Itcz then they go normally unlike other storms. But there rare.

[WindRunner]

Note the track map up right now is Ioke's final . . . but this should be the map shortly, as the url is for "cp022006" . . .

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphic ... rTrack.gif

[HURAKAN]

Loo where Ioke and possible "Kika" formed and possible track!!!

[senorpepr]

BTW, Kika--a MALE name--is Hawaiian for Keith.

[senorpepr]

WTPA33 PHFO 190830
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006
1100 PM HST MON SEP 18 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD FAR SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.1 WEST OR ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...HAWAII AND ABOUT 895 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TWO-C IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...10.0 N...158.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER TANABE/HOUSTON




WTPA23 PHFO 190830
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006
0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 158.1W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 158.1W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 157.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 10.3N 159.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 10.8N 162.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 65NE 35SE 35SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.4N 164.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.0N 166.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 35NW.
34 KT... 95NE 75SE 70SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.4N 171.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 95SE 85SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 14.4N 174.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 14.8N 176.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 158.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER TANABE/HOUSTON

[senorpepr]

WTPA43 PHFO 190905
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006
1100 PM HST MON SEP 18 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS...TWO-C HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION AND
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS INCREASED. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION HAS ALSO MADE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE THE EXACT CENTER. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED WAS INCREASED TO 30
KNOTS BASED ON AGENCY FIXES OF 1.5 AND QUIKSCAT DATA. WINDSAT DATA
AT 0416 UTC DID INDICATE SOME 40 KNOT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER NEAR
10.5N LATITUDE...BUT THESE SEEMED UNREASONABLE AND WERE DISCOUNTED.

THE FORECAST TRACK OF TWO-C HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD OR TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH RELIED EXCLUSIVELY ON THE BETA
ADVECTION AND PERSISTENCE/CLIMATOLOGY MODELS. THE CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUITE...INCLUDING GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND CONU FORECASTS...SHOWS A
CONSIDERABLE SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH BEYOND 36 HOURS...TAKING TWO-C
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS THAT WOULD HELP TO
STEER THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALMOST FROM DUE EAST...WHICH
ADDS CREDENCE TO THE MORE WESTWARD MOVEMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AND
SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE GFDL TRACK THEREAFTER...WHICH IS NOT QUITE AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE CONU.

WIND RADII WERE ALSO EXPANDED PRIMARILY THROUGH 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO THE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND QUIKSCAT DATA. WIND RADII REMAIN
LARGEST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM...WHERE THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE STORM AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS THE
STRONGEST.

THE FORECAST INTENSITY WAS INCREASED THROUGH 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
THE INCREASE IN INITIAL INTENSITY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR NEAR
TWO-C AT THE MOMENT AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TWO-C WILL
ENCOUNTER LITTLE TO NO VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPERIMENTAL VERTICAL SHEAR ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMMS CONCUR...AND
LIST DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK AS VERY FAVORABLE IN THE NEAR TERM. TWO-C
IS SPINNING OVER SSTS OF 28 DEGREES CELSIUS AND GIVEN ITS FORECAST
TRACK WILL REMAIN OVER WATER NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. ALL SIGNS
THEREFORE...ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. AS IT
STANDS...TWO-C IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY
TUESDAY...AND REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WEDNESDAY.

ITS PROJECTED PATH THROUGH 120 HOURS KEEPS TWO-C OVER WATER AND AWAY
FROM ANY MAJOR PACIFIC ISLANDS. THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS ALSO PLACES TWO-C FURTHER AWAY FROM
JOHNSTON ISLAND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 10.0N 158.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 10.3N 159.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 10.8N 162.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 11.4N 164.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 12.0N 166.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 13.4N 171.1W 75 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 14.4N 174.3W 80 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 14.8N 176.5W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER TANABE/HOUSTON

[P.K.]

Looks to me to be the first year two or more systems have formed in the CN Pacific since 2002 going by Unisys.

[HURAKAN]

If 2002 can be an example, then it's safe to say that there could be more coming this season for the CPAC.

[senorpepr]

Somewhat off topic from 02C, but I just ran the average ACE and HDP for the CPAC, to include all storms over CPAC area (cross-over storms).

The average ACE and HDP for the CPAC is 17.9623 and 13.6855, respectively.

For 2006, Hurricane Daniel (from the EPAC) racked up 2.3300 and 1.7025 for ACE and HDP.

Hurricane Ioke (during her CPAC period) racked up 32.2250 and 31.7775 for ACE and HDP.

This yields a total, so far, of 34.5550 and 33.4800. This is 214.98% of normal.

Before you start calling it a record season, though...

Code: Select all

#  Year  ACE      HDP      Percent
----------------------------------
1  1994 109.2025  93.5875  640.77%
2  1978  57.7375  47.1625  331.46%
3  1985  42.4175  37.1850  251.53%
4  1988  36.2825  33.8125  221.48%
5  2006  34.5550  33.4800  214.98%  (In Progress)

(Over the past 30 years)

[Cyclenall]

I'm liking the looks of this storm more and more. The more west the better. Looks organized on sat images.

[WmE]

000
WTPA33 PHFO 192045
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 19 2006

AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.7 WEST OR ABOUT 790 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU OAHU AND ABOUT 805 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...10.0 N...159.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER NASH

[cycloneye]

000
WTPA43 PHFO 192046
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 19 2006

TWO-C STILL NOT LOOKING ALL THAT ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAINLY JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. LAST HOUR OR SO HAS SEEN CONVECTION BLOW UP NEAR THE CENTER BUT ALSO ALONG SOME BANDS TO THE NW AND SE OF THE SYSTEM. MOST DVORAK FIXES STILL AT T1.5 ALTHOUGH SAB GAVE US A T2.0. WILL MAINTAIN SYSTEM AT 30KT WITH THIS CYCLE. UNFORTUNATELY TWO-C IS WITHIN THE HOLE BETWEEN QUICKSCAT AND OTHER MICROWAVE PASSES THIS MORNING SO NO HELP THERE.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ HAS DIMINISHED EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CLUSTER ABOUT 8 DEGREES AWAY NEAR 151W...TWO-C STILL HASNT MADE ITS FULL BREAK FROM THE ITCZ. IT HAS BEEN TRACKING ALMOST DUE WEST THE LAST 24 HOURS...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A MORE NORTHWEST MOTION. THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK CLOSER TO THE ITCZ HAS KEPT TWO-C FROM REALLY TAKING OFF AND DEVELOPING. WITH ITCZ CONVECTION DIMINISHING...CHANCES LOOK BETTER FOR TWO-C TO CUT AWAY HOWEVER DONT LIKE THE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE BANDS NW AND SE OF THE CENTER...COULD TAKE AWAY FROM CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THUS THE QUANDRY OF THE MOMENT...WILL TWO-C DEVELOP AND IF SO...WHEN AND HOW FAST. CERTAINLY BEEN A POINT OF DISCUSSION HERE AT CPHC THIS MORNING.

ALL GLOBAL MODELS...GFS UKMET ECMWF AND NOGAPS...ALL CONTINUE TO BE SUPRISINGLY COOL WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT OF TWO-C AND IN FACT KEEP IT AT TD STRENGTH THRU 120 HRS. GFDL IS STILL SHOWING A SLOW DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE FINALLY HITTING HURRICANE STRENGTH 4 DAYS FROM NOW. SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BACKING OFF THE LAST FEW RUNS AND ONLY SLOWLY BRINGS IT TO A 60KT TROPICAL STORM IN 3 DAYS. GIVEN THE SLOW START TO TWO-C AND CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY THRU 24 HRS. STILL SHOWING IT REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS...BUT THAT COULD HAPPEN SOONER OR LATER. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE FOR QUICK INTENSIFICATION IS THE ALMOST NEGLIGABLE SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE IS THE NEARNESS TO THE ITCZ. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN ISNT AS WELL FORMED AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL NOT TOO BAD.

TRACKWISE...HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEARLY ALL DYNAMIC GUIDANCE TO SHOW A MORE WESTWARD MOTION THRU 24HRS. AFTER THAT PRETTY MUCH MADE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. GUIDANCE DID SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH...SO WE ARE NOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. WILL MAINTAIN THE GENERAL WNW MOTION THRU 72 HOURS THEN TURN MORE WEST AND SLOW DOWN AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE STEERING FLOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN. GFDL STARTS MOVING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENING IT AT DAY 5. NOT SURE WHAT THAT MEANS YET...PERHAPS AN EARLY SIGNAL TO A SLIGHT PATTERN SHIFT NEAR THE DATELINE.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS TWO-C OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND AWAY FROM ANY MAJOR PACIFIC ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 10.0N 159.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 10.3N 161.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 11.1N 164.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 11.8N 167.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 12.7N 169.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 13.6N 172.7W 60 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 14.1N 175.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 14.3N 177.4W 70 KT


$$
FORECASTER NASH

[WmE]

WILL TWO-C DEVELOP AND IF SO...WHEN AND HOW FAST. CERTAINLY BEEN A POINT OF DISCUSSION HERE AT CPHC THIS MORNING.

[wxmann_91]

Somewhat off topic from 02C, but I just ran the average ACE and HDP for the CPAC, to include all storms over CPAC area (cross-over storms).

The average ACE and HDP for the CPAC is 17.9623 and 13.6855, respectively.

For 2006, Hurricane Daniel (from the EPAC) racked up 2.3300 and 1.7025 for ACE and HDP.

Hurricane Ioke (during her CPAC period) racked up 32.2250 and 31.7775 for ACE and HDP.

This yields a total, so far, of 34.5550 and 33.4800. This is 214.98% of normal.

Before you start calling it a record season, though...

Code: Select all

#  Year  ACE      HDP      Percent
----------------------------------
1  1994 109.2025  93.5875  640.77%
2  1978  57.7375  47.1625  331.46%
3  1985  42.4175  37.1850  251.53%
4  1988  36.2825  33.8125  221.48%
5  2006  34.5550  33.4800  214.98%  (In Progress)

(Over the past 30 years)

I don't think there could be any season that beats 1994. Emilia, Gilma, John - An upper end 4 and two 5's... that's hard to beat in the CPAC.

There are two scenarios that I'm thinking of - one is that Two-C remains embedded in the ITCZ and remains weak until it hits the WPAC, or dissipates harmlessly. This scenario is painted by most of the global models.

There's also the possibility of rapid intensification if it manages to break away from the ITCZ, due to warm waters, low shear, and its small size. In this case, eventual recurvature is likely well away from land masses.

[Cyclenall]

I'm liking the looks of this storm more and more. The more west the better. Looks organized on sat images.

Ignore this part. The more west may not help TD2-C since it can't break off the ITCZ that way. I want it to go a bit more north and then west, that way everyone can go well.

There's also the possibility of rapid intensification if it manages to break away from the ITCZ, due to warm waters, low shear, and its small size. In this case, eventual recurvature is likely well away from land masses.

I hope this happens.

[wxmann_91]

Cyclenall,

The scenario that you wish for IMO has a better chance of happening as 2-C is entering a region of decreasing atmospheric instability as a result of the dry phase of the MJO. That should help in killing ITCZ convection allowing 2-C to strengthen and move poleward in response to the Beta Effect.

[cycloneye]

20/0000 UTC 10.5N 161.5W T2.5/2.5 02C -- Central Pacific Ocean

35kts according to SSD dvorak.Will it be Kika at the next advisory?

[MiamiensisWx]

In my opinion, we may have Kika at the upcoming advisory. As evidenced on visible and infra-red imagery, banding has become better organized, while convection has consolidated much closer to the LLC and has become slightly more structured, lending credence that QUICKSCAT may be enough to support a low-end tropical storm as well.

[MiamiensisWx]

By the way, does anyone have the link to the latest model initializations? Can that be posted?

[cycloneye]

By the way, does anyone have the link to the latest model initializations? Can that be posted?

Here they are.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (CP022006) ON 20060920 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060920 0000 060920 1200 060921 0000 060921 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.4N 161.2W 11.0N 163.9W 11.8N 166.2W 12.7N 168.0W
BAMM 10.4N 161.2W 11.2N 164.0W 11.9N 166.6W 12.7N 168.8W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 37KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060922 0000 060923 0000 060924 0000 060925 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.5N 169.4W 14.4N 171.5W 14.8N 172.2W 16.4N 171.2W
BAMM 13.5N 170.6W 14.1N 173.6W 13.9N 176.2W 14.0N 178.1W
SHIP 49KTS 57KTS 57KTS 57KTS
DSHP 49KTS 57KTS 57KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.4N LONCUR = 161.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 9.9N LONM12 = 158.4W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 156.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 70NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM