#154 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:23 pm
The following is not an official forecast and should not be used as such.
Here is my synopsis of the next 2+ weeks of Houston weather based on forecasts and the latest models:
Short term (tonight through the weekend): Tonight will be one of the coldest so far this fall. Expect lows to fall into the lower 50s in areas such as Conroe and Huntsville, into the middle 50s in all other areas north of I-10, and into the upper 50s to lower 60s (with mid 60s at the coast) south of I-10.
This chilly night will then be followed by another gorgeous day tomorrow with highs only in the lower to middle 80s under sunny skies, and tomorrow night should feature lows only about 1-5F warmer than what we reach tonight (meaning they will still be on the cool side).
Things warm up slightly on Wednesday as the winds veer SE and some gulf moisture is drawn into the area. Highs on Wednesday will likely reach the middle to upper 80s with lows in the middle 60s north of I-10 and upper 60s to near 70F south of I-10 on Wednesday night (about normal for this time of year). This slight warm up will be erased on Thursday however as a cold front brings a reinforcing shot of cool, dry air into the area. Highs on Thursday will be in the lower 80s with an overnight low in the upper 50s north of I-10 and lower 60s to the south. Highs on Friday will then struggle to hit 80F with partly sunny skies and northerly breeze. The nice weather should stick around through the weekend as another reinforcing front works it's way through on Saturday.
Each of these fronts should only be capable of a 10-30% rain chance.
Long range (Next week and beyond)**: Latest modeling shows that next week could get "warm" compared to what we have seen recently. A southerly breeze should allow for near or above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to near 90F and lows in the upper 60s to near 70F. There also seems to be an increase in humidity and a 10-30% Gulf induced rain chance each day.
Things look to change the weekend of the 7th though. Modeling is showing a strong canadian front sweeping through the plains and reaching our area by Sunday, October 8th. With enough moisture out ahead of it, we will likely see a 50%+ rain chance as well as severe weather as the front approaches.
Behind the front, some of the coolest weather all year looks like it would be in store (if the models are correct). Latest modeling shows a north breeze straight from Canada and with it being October, highs as low as the 60s and lows in the 40s would be very possible if this comes to pass.
The models then continue this cooler look through the end of the period (which is October 11th on the GFS). All in all though, it looks like we are set up for a very nice 2 weeks ahead with no extreme heat anywhere in the forecast.
**keep in mind that models and forecasts do change. All items in the "long range" section are subject to major edit with each new model trend and NWS forecast. That section should be used solely to get an "idea" of the general trend being described by long range models and ideas, and not be used for specific planning purposes.**
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