Bahama Development?

[wxman57]

True Wxman57. But one possibility is that the cold core could entrain the warm core either becoming a hybrid or a true warm core system. This weekend could prove to be very interesting

That is true, there could be some part of the disturbance that is entrained into the cold-core system. My point is that this thunderstorm mass NE of the Bahamas isn't likely going to track west into south Florida.

[gatorcane]

its not this one that worries me - its the the one showing up on GFS model runs to deepen just south of Cuba......things are starting to pick up in the tropics for sure at least the MJO phase appears to be making its presence known as we approach mid Oct.

[cpdaman]

to me it looks like

"shower and t'storm's are becoming more concentrated several hundred miles east of the bahamas tonite, as conditions could become marginally favorable in another day or two"

also this could merge with a developing low off the n.c coast fri and we may have a interesting system which depending on it's interaction and location may be a threat anywhere from north florida to southern newengland

[Thunder44]

482
ABNT20 KNHC 050907
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUES BETWEEN THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

A SECOND AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. AGAIN...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[brunota2003]

Wow...Cape Hatteras is forecasted to have winds of 34-37 MPH tomorrow night:

Friday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Windy, with a northwest wind 23 to 26 mph increasing to between 34 and 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

here is the Newport, NC AFD, things are going to get very interesting very quickly:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
447 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A COMPLEX WX PATTERN IS
TAKING SHAPE THAT IS BRINGING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SWD ACROSS
VA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE FRONT
MOVING INTO NRN COUNTIES AROUND 15Z AND STALLING IT ACROSS THE
SERN PORTION OF THE CWA. BOTH MODELS ARE KEEPING THE FROPA DRY AS
THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CHANGES TONIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND DEVELOPING INTO AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER CENTRAL NC BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS BRING PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WRN AND NRN
PORTIONS THIS EVENING SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY DAYBREAK
FRI. WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SFC BOUNDARY OFF THE
COAST...MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A SFC LOW JUST EAST OF HATTERAS FRI
AND LIFTING IT TO NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER FRI EVENING. THIS SCENARIO
WILL BRING STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIP TO NERN NC/SERN
VA...WITH GREATEST AFFECTS TO THE NRN PORTION OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER
SMALL CHANGES IN THE LOCATION OF BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS
COULD MEAN BIG DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS AND
HEAVIEST PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING THE UPPER LOW SWD TO JUST OFF THE SC/GA
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW AND CHANCE POPS
INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NEWD ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S.
BRINGING DRYER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TUE AND WED.

That means I still need to watch it, even if its not tropical, TD force winds knocked out power during Isabel for 24 hours...I have a non-boring 24 hours ahead of me...

[Jim Cantore]

IF anything forms here, I would expect it to be a Hybrid (subtropical) storm.

I only give it a 20% chance though, and thats with my 15% "Remember 2005" bonus.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 051514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
ALONG A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD TO BERMUDA. WHILE A NON-TROPICAL LOW COULD
FORM WITHIN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

A SECOND AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[Sanibel]

Saw the same thing. Possible sub-tropical development from the satellite appearance.

[gatorcane]

the thunderstorms and cloud tops are rather impressive tonight on satellite. Its a good thing ULL winds are unfavorable.

[Rainband]

1012mb low on Satellite

[chadtm80]

Is this new 99L now?

[Rainband]

Yes sir.