INVEST 91L (Eastern Atlantic)

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HurricaneMaster_PR
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INVEST 91L (Eastern Atlantic)

#1 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Thu Oct 12, 2006 8:15 am

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20061012 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061012 1200 061013 0000 061013 1200 061014 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 35.7W 13.6N 36.1W 14.3N 36.4W 15.2N 36.9W
BAMM 13.2N 35.7W 13.5N 36.8W 13.9N 38.0W 14.5N 39.2W
A98E 13.2N 35.7W 13.8N 36.9W 14.2N 38.1W 14.8N 39.1W
LBAR 13.2N 35.7W 13.9N 36.1W 14.8N 36.3W 16.0N 36.5W
SHIP 25KTS 23KTS 21KTS 18KTS
DSHP 25KTS 23KTS 21KTS 18KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061014 1200 061015 1200 061016 1200 061017 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.8N 37.3W 17.0N 37.6W 18.3N 35.7W 20.9N 31.2W
BAMM 14.9N 40.4W 15.9N 43.6W 16.9N 46.8W 17.5N 49.4W
A98E 15.5N 39.7W 16.2N 40.7W 16.4N 41.5W 16.9N 41.4W
LBAR 17.3N 36.6W 20.6N 35.6W 22.6N 31.9W 24.9N 24.1W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 35.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 34.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 32.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#2 Postby TheEuropean » Thu Oct 12, 2006 8:21 am

Image

NRL has it at 13.2N 35.7W with 25kts winds and 1010mb.
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#3 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Oct 12, 2006 8:53 am

this came out of nowhere! west runner or quick recurver? intresting....
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#4 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Oct 12, 2006 10:59 am

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#5 Postby GrimReaper » Thu Oct 12, 2006 11:04 am

:eek: Looks like a bunch of fireworkds to me!! One good blow before we all go back to sleep for the winter would be fun!!
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 12, 2006 11:19 am

12/1145 UTC 14.3N 34.9W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean
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#7 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 12, 2006 12:03 pm

It's a rare case when you see the SHIP and DSHP models forecating steadily decreasing intensity down to 0 kts. This disturbance is moving into very strong wind shear. Won't be around too long. Have to find "Joyce" elsewhere.
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 12, 2006 2:16 pm

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20061012 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061012 1800 061013 0600 061013 1800 061014 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 36.2W 13.9N 36.1W 15.0N 36.1W 16.0N 36.1W
BAMM 13.3N 36.2W 13.8N 37.2W 14.4N 38.2W 15.1N 39.2W
A98E 13.3N 36.2W 13.7N 37.2W 14.1N 38.3W 14.5N 39.2W
LBAR 13.3N 36.2W 13.9N 36.5W 15.0N 36.7W 16.3N 36.8W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 22KTS 19KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 22KTS 19KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061014 1800 061015 1800 061016 1800 061017 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.0N 36.3W 18.8N 36.3W 20.4N 35.6W 22.2N 35.2W
BAMM 15.7N 40.4W 17.0N 43.4W 17.9N 46.1W 18.5N 48.6W
A98E 15.0N 39.9W 15.6N 41.3W 16.0N 42.8W 16.5N 44.4W
LBAR 17.6N 36.7W 20.6N 35.2W 22.6N 31.7W 24.9N 24.5W
SHIP 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 36.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 35.2W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 12.4N LONM24 = 33.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#9 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 13, 2006 9:35 am

Questionable declaration. I don't expect anything out of this blob.
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#10 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 13, 2006 9:53 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Questionable declaration. I don't expect anything out of this blob.


Yeah, like I said, rarely do both SHIPS and DSHP forecast steady weakening from 25kts to 0kts for ANY system. Takes tremendously unfavorable conditions for development for that.
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