Severe Tropical Storm Clovis (TC 06S) in S. Indian

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Coredesat

Severe Tropical Storm Clovis (TC 06S) in S. Indian

#1 Postby Coredesat » Fri Dec 22, 2006 10:31 pm

P.K., in the Bondo thread, wrote:Just noticed this in the MetArea bulletin from Mauritus as well. Nothing from La Reunion yet.

PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS:

THE WAVE EVOLVING NEAR 05S 68E HAS DEVELOPED INTO A WEAK LOW NEAR
05S 69E AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGN OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS BOUND TO INCREASE
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BONDO IS NOW STARTING
TO TRACK SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH.


Image

Nothing on JTWC or La Reunion yet. The 12Z CMC is fairly bullish with this system, as it was with Bondo.
Last edited by Coredesat on Sun Dec 31, 2006 3:39 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#2 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Dec 22, 2006 11:17 pm

here we go with my theroy of multiple storms at the same cyclongenesis time.
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#3 Postby Coredesat » Sun Dec 24, 2006 7:01 pm

Image

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5S 66.4E
HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 6.0S 67.5E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 241335Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICT A BROAD, DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LLCC
IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL, NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN A REGION OF GOOD DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DESPITE
LESS THAN OPTIMAL UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.


Nothing from La Reunion, and I don't have the Mauritius marine bulletin.
Last edited by Coredesat on Sun Dec 24, 2006 7:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#4 Postby P.K. » Sun Dec 24, 2006 7:03 pm

Next update should be out in an hour or so.

PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS

THE LOW NEAR 5.5S 66.5E SEEMS TO BE ORGANISING.


T.O.O 24/1240UT=
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#5 Postby P.K. » Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:11 pm

Nothing from RSMC La Reunion yet.

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (S), METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
MAURITIUS, 25 DECEMBER 2006 AT 0000 UTC.

WIND SPEED IN KNOTS. SEA STATE. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. VISIBILITY.


PART 1 : TTT WARNING OF NEAR GALE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BONDO 960 HPA WAS LOCATED AT 25/0000 UT
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S AND 47.5 E. (FOURTEEN DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FOURTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT SOUTH 05KT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH
SEAS EXIST BETWEEN LATITUDES 08S & 10S AND LONGITUDES 43E & 47E.


T.O.O 25/0045UTC


PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 25 DECEMBER 2006 - 0000 UTC

TROPICAL CYCLONE BONDO 960 HPA WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT
14.2 S AND 47.5 E.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 06S 67E

INTER TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG 10S 40E, INTO TROPICAL
CYCLONE BONDO 14.2 S 47.5 E CONTINUES ALONG 10S 51E, 11S 54E , 08S
60E, 04S 70E, INTO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 06S 67E CONTINUES
ALONG 05S 80E, 03S 85E ,04S 95E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 15S 74E,19S 77E .

FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 22S 70E, 25S 83E, INTO LOW NEAR 32S 87E.

HIGH 1032 HPA NEAR 40S 75E


PART 3: AREA FORECAST VALID UP TO 26 DECEMBER 2006 AT 0000 UTC

8/1:EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20. SEA MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG FRONTAL SYSTEM. VISIBILITY
POOR IN SHOWERS.


8/2: NORTH EASTERLY 15-20 IN WEST, EASTERLY 15 IN EAST. SEA
MODERATE .


8/3: EASTERLY 15- 20, LOCALLY GUSTY. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY
ROUGH. VISIBILITY POOR IN ISOLATED THUNDERY SHOWERS IN NORTH.


8/4: EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20. SEA MODERATE
.VISIBILITY GOOD.


8/5: CLOCKWISE 10-15 AROUND TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. EAST SOUTH
EASTERLY 15 IN SOUTH, WESTERLY 10 IN NORTH, LOCALLY GUSTY. SEA
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH. VISIBILITY POOR IN ISOLATED THUNDERY
SHOWERS.




8/6: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH.VARIABLE TO WESTERLY 10 IN
NORTH. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH. VISIBILITY POOR IN ISOLATED
THUNDERY SHOWERS.


SOUTH 8/7: AS IN TTT WARNING IN PART ONE.


REMAINDER 8/7: WESTERLY 10 IN NORTH, LOCALLY GUSTY. SEA MODERATE
TO ROUGH. VISIBILITY POOR IN ISOLATED THUNDERY SHOWERS.



PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 06S 67E IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN FURTHER


T.O.O 25/0100UT=
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#6 Postby P.K. » Mon Dec 25, 2006 7:55 am

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/4/20062007
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 4

2.A POSITION 2006/12/25 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.7S / 67.5E
(SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 15 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/26 00 UTC: 07.2S/65.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2006/12/26 12 UTC: 08.1S/63.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2006/12/27 00 UTC: 09.0S/61.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2006/12/27 12 UTC: 09.8S/59.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2006/12/28 00 UTC: 10.8S/57.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2006/12/28 12 UTC: 12.1S/55.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION DOES NOT SHOW ANY ORGANIZATION.
LLCC APPEARS NORTH-EAST OF THE CONVECTION.

SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.

Image
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#7 Postby weatherwindow » Tue Dec 26, 2006 7:59 am

does anyone have a link, preferrably in english, to the tropical cylcone climatology of the seychelles.......thanks in advance and happy holidays, rich
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#8 Postby P.K. » Tue Dec 26, 2006 10:18 am

Up to 25kts (1002hPa).

WTIO30 FMEE 261209

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/4/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4

2.A POSITION 2006/12/26 AT 1200 UTC :
8.3S / 60.6E
(EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/27 00 UTC: 08.8S/59.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2006/12/27 12 UTC: 09.4S/57.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2006/12/28 00 UTC: 10.5S/55.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2006/12/28 12 UTC: 11.0S/54.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 26, 2006 6:36 pm

Image

TCFA already issued!!!

WTXS21 PGTW 262300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 262251ZDEC2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8S 60.1E TO 9.4S 55.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 261800Z INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 59.9E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 8.9S 59.9E, APPROXIMATELY
695 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL AND INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED INTO A REGION
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS BECOME POSITIONED UNDER AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS THE CONVECTION HAS
RAPIDLY BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LLCC IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL, NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
REMAINS FAVORABLE. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. WITH INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND MOVING
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
272300Z.//
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#10 Postby HurricaneBill » Tue Dec 26, 2006 6:52 pm

Next name on the list: "Clovis".
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 27, 2006 8:49 am

Image

Veritcal Shear remains too strong for the system to develop.
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 28, 2006 10:16 am

28/1430 UTC 9.7S 54.9E T2.0/2.0 90S -- South Indian Ocean

Becoming better organized!!!
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#13 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 29, 2006 8:21 am

Interestingly, Météo-France killed off 04R, and has just added a Zone perturbée 05R, whose co-ordinates better match those of 90S than 04R.
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#14 Postby P.K. » Fri Dec 29, 2006 9:21 am

The LLC they were monitoring for 04R has gone.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=1.5
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MONITORED AND NUMBERED 4 HAS DISSIPATED.

DISPITE A FAVOURABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW , THE VERTICAL FEATURE HAD NEVER
PERMIT IT TO INTENSIFY IN SPITE OF THE SUCCESSIVE FORECATS OF NWP MODELS.
NEVERTHELESS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH EX- TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE NR4 HAS PERSISTED.
DURING THE NIGHT, SEVERAL RELATIVE AND SHORT-LIVED CENTERS HAVE PROBABLY
EXIST AT THE MERCY OF CONVECTIVE PULSATIONS, MAINLY EAST OF 55E.
LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NOW A NEW CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION ORGANIZED
AROUND A NEW CENTER APPEARING TO BE THE MAIN.
EVEN THIS NEW CENTER IS ISSUED FROM THE SAME THUNDERY AREA THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE, DISSIPATING OF THE FIRST MONITORED ONE AND THE GENESIS OF
THIS NEW ONE JUSTIFY THE RE-NUMBERING.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS THEN
SOUTHWESTWARDS , INTENSIFYING PROGRESSIVELY IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
WEAKENING WINDSHEAR AND AN EFFICIENT POLARWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW LINKED
TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS EAST OF 55E BETWEEN 15S AND 20S.
AT THIS STAGE, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.
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#15 Postby Coredesat » Sat Dec 30, 2006 7:59 pm

This is still 90S, but a new LLCC formed yesterday, and RSMC La Reunion has it as Perturbation tropicale 05R:

WTIO30 FMEE 310024

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/5/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5

2.A POSITION 2006/12/31 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 55.4E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 150 SO: 150 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/31 12 UTC: 14.1S/54.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2007/01/01 00 UTC: 14.6S/54.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2007/01/01 12 UTC: 15.2S/53.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/01/02 00 UTC: 15.8S/53.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/01/02 12 UTC: 16.5S/53.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/01/03 00 UTC: 17.3S/53.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOES NOT SEEM STABILIZED AROUND THE CENTRE. THE
SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR, AND AN AREA OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR SEYCHELLES REDUCES THE MONSOON FLOW NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY.

AFWA Dvorak:

404
TPXS10 KGWC 310028
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE E OF MADAGASCAR
B. 30/2331Z (117)
C. 13.6S/0
D. 55.3E/3
E. SIX/MET5
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS -30/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. FT BASED ON DT.
MET AND PT SUPPORT.

AODT: N/A.

DYER
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#16 Postby Coredesat » Sat Dec 30, 2006 8:01 pm

Image

EDIT: Whoops, I posted an image of 90W by mistake. The actual system looks pretty good.
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#17 Postby Coredesat » Sun Dec 31, 2006 3:49 am

WTIO30 FMEE 310618

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/5/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5

2.A POSITION 2006/12/31 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 54.8E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 040 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/31 18 UTC: 14.5S/53.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2007/01/01 06 UTC: 15.2S/53.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2007/01/01 18 UTC: 15.6S/53.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/01/02 06 UTC: 16.0S/53.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/01/02 18 UTC: 16.4S/53.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/01/03 06 UTC: 16.7S/52.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR, AND AN AREA
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR SEYCHELLES REDUCES THE MONSOON FLOW NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM.
NEVERTHELESS IT HAS LIGHTLY INTENSIFIED LAST NIGHT.
WINDS ARE CALIBRATED ACCORDING TO LAST QUIKSCAT DATA.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ,
INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY.
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#18 Postby Coredesat » Sun Dec 31, 2006 3:52 am

And Tropical Cyclone 06S from JTWC (removed forecast positions to save space):

WTXS31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301351Z DEC 06//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 13.9S 55.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 55.0E

REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 54.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM NORTH
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 310228 SSMI IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CON-
VECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A PERVIOUSLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BASED ON PER-
SISTENCE AND AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 301351Z DEC 06
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 301400) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
312100Z AND 010900Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
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#19 Postby P.K. » Sun Dec 31, 2006 7:20 am

Just upgraded to Moderate TS Clovis. Min pressure of 992hPa.
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#20 Postby P.K. » Sun Dec 31, 2006 10:18 am

And now up to a 50kt Severe TS in an unusual 1500 GMT update.

BULLETIN DU 31 DECEMBRE A 19H30 LOCALES:

VIGILANCE CYCLONIQUE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE CLOVIS

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 987 HPA.
POSITION LE 31 DECEMBRE A 19 HEURES LOCALES: 15.4 SUD / 54.3 EST
(QUINZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE-QUATRE DEGRES TROIS EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 620 KM AU NORD-NORD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST A 20 KM/H.


CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN CE DIMANCHE 31 DECEMBRE A 22H30 LOCALES
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