ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[AussieMark]

Last 3 months across Nino 3.4

2006121120061217 1.17
2006121820061224 1.14
2006122520061231 1.06
2007010120070107 0.92
2007010820070114 0.83
2007011520070121 0.57
2007012220070128 0.43
2007012920070204 0.32
2007020520070211 0.20
2007021220070218 0.20
2007021920070225 0.05
2007022620070304 0.08

last 3 months across Nino 3

2006121120061217 1.12
2006121820061224 1.13
2006122520061231 1.11
2007010120070107 1.03
2007010820070114 0.95
2007011520070121 0.77
2007012220070128 0.64
2007012920070204 0.49
2007020520070211 0.34
2007021220070218 0.15
2007021920070225 0.08
2007022620070304 -0.12

last 3 months across Nino 4

2006121120061217 1.15
2006121820061224 1.12
2006122520061231 1.06
2007010120070107 0.93
2007010820070114 0.81
2007011520070121 0.67
2007012220070128 0.57
2007012920070204 0.52
2007020520070211 0.49
2007021220070218 0.65
2007021920070225 0.53
2007022620070304 0.46

[cycloneye]

Pacific Anomalies Graphic



The cool anomalies haved mantained it's grip in the el nino 1-2 and 3 areas.Only el nino 3-4 looks a little warmer.

[HURAKAN]

01-05-07:


03-05-07:


What a difference in just two months!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

Note the slowly expanding +NOI (future -PDO) in the western and central North Pacific east of Japan in recent weeks at the subsurface. This is progressing to the surface and it is slowly intruding eastward towards British Columbia (per 3/5/2007). In addition, note the more favorable cooler and expansive subsurface trend in the eastern South Pacific in recent weeks. Along with the colder equatorial Pacific subsurface and SSTs expanding westward this could indicate the potential for a stronger cool ENSO event (La Nina) that may reach moderate status. Some evidence suggests the current SOI index may aid this process.

[cycloneye]

01-05-07:


03-05-07:


What a difference in just two months!!!

Yes,it has been a very fast transition from El Nino,strait to La Nina.The question is how strong the La Nina event will be.

[cycloneye]

Summary: Pacific Ocean continues to cool

The eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean has continued to cool rapidly following the demise of the El Niño event. While current conditions are neutral, the cooling has increased the likelihood of, though not guaranteed, a switch to La Niña conditions over the coming months. The Trade Winds have mostly been close to or somewhat stronger than normal since December, the SOI has been neutral for three of the past four months and is now close to zero and cloudiness has shifted to the western Pacific. There would now appear to be little chance of a return to El Niño conditions in 2007, with a continuation of neutral, or a switch to La Niña conditions, the more likely scenarios.

In Brief

Equatorial Pacific SSTs have further cooled and anomalies are below zero in the eastern equatorial Pacific.

Negative subsurface anomalies have strengthened and reached the surface in the eastern Pacific.

The SOI has a current (5th March) 30-day value of zero.

Trade Winds have generally been close to or somewhat stronger than average in the western Pacific during February.

Cloudiness near the date-line has recently been close to or slightly below average.

Most computer models predict further cooling of the Pacific during the first half of 2007.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

Above is the March 7 update from BoM (The Australians).

[HURAKAN]

No surprise at all. It was the confirmation we were expecting.

[johngaltfla]

This should be a wake up call to the lurkers who do not prepare for these storms. I do not look for energy prices to decline now nor any good news from the insurers for us who live in Hurricane Central. I appreciate this update and will be following it further.

Does anyone have any idea when Dr. Gray and the NHC will issue their next forecast and how they tie this report into it for the benefit of us non-inside the industry folks?

[meteorologyman]

This should be a wake up call to the lurkers who do not prepare for these storms. I do not look for energy prices to decline now nor any good news from the insurers for us who live in Hurricane Central. I appreciate this update and will be following it further.

Does anyone have any idea when Dr. Gray and the NHC will issue their next forecast and how they tie this report into it for the benefit of us non-inside the industry folks?

The next Hurricane forecast from Dr. Gray was either April 3rd or April 8th i forgot but i'm sure it's the 3rd

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think will be above normal but not by alot. Maybe 15 name storms. But of those storms there could be alot of cat3-5's. I also think there will be more recurvature which would put the carolina's north in the worst zone. From the last La Nina of the late 90's it seems like a good analog year. That's my 2 cents.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center March 8 Update



La Nina is comming faster than expected by the data that is comming out.We can say with confidence that the 2007 season will not have El Nino as a big influence.

[Aquawind]

Yep for what is usually the most uncertain time for forecasting ENSO they seem pretty confident and rightfully so.

[boca]

I guess at this point we can assume that 2007 should be more active than 2006, but thats not saying much.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Assuming makes an "Ass" out of "u" & "me". Presuming is because there will be a La Nina and assuming it to be moderate to strong then the presumption is right.

[SouthFloridawx]

I guess at this point we can assume that 2007 should be more active than 2006, but thats not saying much.

Seeing as you getting shutters last year spared us from another onslaught... Do you think you could humor us and get some more shutters this year?

[tgenius]

I guess at this point we can assume that 2007 should be more active than 2006, but thats not saying much.

Seeing as you getting shutters last year spared us from another onslaught... Do you think you could humor us and get some more shutters this year?

Hey now.. I got my shutters last year too!

[HURAKAN]

I guess at this point we can assume that 2007 should be more active than 2006, but thats not saying much.

Seeing as you getting shutters last year spared us from another onslaught... Do you think you could humor us and get some more shutters this year?

Hey now.. I got my shutters last year too!

Last year my parents got the hurricane shutters and the natural gas generator.

[boca]

I guess at this point we can assume that 2007 should be more active than 2006, but thats not saying much.

Seeing as you getting shutters last year spared us from another onslaught... Do you think you could humor us and get some more shutters this year?

I'll get more shutters this year I need your credit card # or your checking account info then I'll buy shutters. By the way the luck of my shutters covers South Florida, your in Tampa.

[deltadog03]

I am not buying the LA nina crap. Sure, its gonna be weak for a while, but I think its just in response to the weak el nino we had. Noaa screwed up on the el nino very badly. The stupid CFS model really stunk as well.

[AussieMark]

the POAMA model has it around neutral by the time hurricane season arrives

i.e

Apr: -0.75
May: -0.66
Jun: -0.49
Jul: -0.44
Aug: -0.41
Sep: -0.32
Oct: -0.19