SE TX / SW LA - Heavy rains this week-Tues. and Fri???

[JenBayles]

I see we're looking at about a 30% chance this Saturday and Sunday. I've been "volunteered" to boil crawfish out at Lake Livingston. Am I gonna have to turn the mudbugs back out to the wilds?

[jasons2k]

Crawfish season is one of the best times of the year! Enjoy

[Johnny]

Mmmmmm, mudbugs! I've already boiled up 60 pounds of them so far this season. Hey Jschlitz, their is a big seafood market on Rayford and I-45 that sells the heck out of them. They are right down the street from my office and I got 30 pounds from them last Friday....nice big ones!


On a weather note...where's the rain???

[PTrackerLA]

I've only had 1" of rain all month and I'm already having to set out the sprinklers again. The latest (12Z) run of the GFS doesn't even show us getting rain early next week and it looks like we could be dry throughout the week. I'm afraid with La Nina developing that we're well on our way towards a 3rd year in a row of drought during spring/summer. We're already over 2" below normal for the year.

[jasons2k]

Mmmmmm, mudbugs! I've already boiled up 60 pounds of them so far this season. Hey Jschlitz, their is a big seafood market on Rayford and I-45 that sells the heck out of them. They are right down the street from my office and I got 30 pounds from them last Friday....nice big ones!

Ahh, yes, Woodlands Seafood Market - one of the best. We had the "all you can eat" crab legs at Louie's last week. They were awesome - they had a Cajun kick to them.

[CajunMama]

Yum, nothing better than fresh seafood!

Off the subject a little bit, I had a customer in my shop this week. He owns some land in Vermilion Parish that flooded when Rita hit. They've got mega shrimp in the rice fields down there now. Also, the young man that works for me, his grandfather is a cattleman in Vermilion Parish, right on Vermilion Bay and lives on a canal. My employee said that the crabs were everywhere in the canals last year. They were crawling out of the canals. Not as many this year but there's still a good bit. Nothing like fresh seafood in your backyard!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest NWS forecast has upped rain chances for late this weekend and early next week...

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 77. Southeast wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Monday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78.

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
345 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE 500MB LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO BUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS
REMAIN WEST OF THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING INTO EAST TX. THE HIGHEST 1000-500MB RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH THE 500MB LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO MOVING
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE 500MB RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST MOVING LITTLE...RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED
TODAY THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM CONTINUE
TO PROG A TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF
THE 500MB LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES SAT NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO WEST TX SUNDAY...LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST TX. IN ADDITION...THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL TX MONDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS MONDAY AS LAPSE
RATES BEGIN TO STEEPEN ACROSS THE CWA FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS BECOMES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS EAST TX
TUES AFTERNOON. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TX. AS THE NEXT 500MB
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND MOVES EASTWARD
WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER WEST TX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL TX. THIS FEATURE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY
FOR NOW. 32

[boca]

Where on water restrictions down here in Florida, no rain in sight.

[Johnny]

Fresh crab legs sound good right about now. I think I'll sneek out of the office around lunchtime and hit the seafood market and head home!

Interesting discussion by Jeff on the potential for rain and the possibility of severe weather starting Monday. Looking forward to it.

[Yankeegirl]

The weather today was just gross.... Humid and overcast.... What a yucky feeling day.... Is there still a potential for storms tomorrow/night? I need a change, I am getting bored!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The weather today was just gross.... Humid and overcast.... What a yucky feeling day.... Is there still a potential for storms tomorrow/night? I need a change, I am getting bored!!!

yes, it looks like rain chances will increase all day tomorrow and then reach 50-60% overnight tomorrow into early Tuesday. A few storms may be strong to severe and/or produce heavy rain. We will just have to wait and see.

Here is the latest from the NWS:

AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES. THIS ROUND
OF STORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
WEAKENS. FOR THIS RAIN EVENT...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD AVERAGE 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS (ESPECIALLY UP NORTH) POSSIBLY AVERAGING
AS HIGH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES.

And here is a look at the 18z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml
^^Dinner time Monday^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _036.shtml
^^About midnight Tuesday morning^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml
^^Around daybreak Tuesday morning^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml
^^About noon on Tuesday^^

After this chance of rain, there will be yet another by the end of the week. ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml <<Squall line Friday morning??? ) Certainly looks like we may be getting back into an "interesting" weather pattern this week.

[srainhoutx]

Sure looks like EWG... Will be interesting to see how this week developes

[Yankeegirl]

I cant wait.... Hey srainhoutx, welcome!!! I know you from the KHOU site!! Where in NW harris county ya at? I am at Barker Cypress and FM 529.....

[srainhoutx]

I cant wait.... Hey srainhoutx, welcome!!! I know you from the KHOU site!! Where in NW harris county ya at? I am at Barker Cypress and FM 529.....

Thanks for the welcome. Huffmiester/SH 6 area

[Yankeegirl]

hey! right down the road!!! Cool!! Jen Bayles also lives out here... Welcome to Storm2K!!!

[PTrackerLA]

Hopefully we get a good soaking from Tuesday's event but with only a 40% chance I'm not so sure.

[JenBayles]

Welcome to srainhoutx! Always glad to meet another denizen under the Bear Creek Dome! Yankee and I have dealt with the BC Dome for many years, and I'm sure you'll soon understand the Dome is the nearly-permanent barrier that exists over west Houston that stubbornly repels most rain-making systems that come our way, then reforms just east of here only to pound Southerngale over in Beaumont. You know how it works: squall line rolls in heading right for us, then splits to the north and/or south missing us entirely. Wonder if tonight's system will be stout enough to repel the Dome?

[Yankeegirl]

lol!!!! I was thinking the same thing!!! Who knows... I did see that the NWS has a 60% of thunderstorms tonight and heavy rain tomorrow... Of course, its now baseball season for the kids and it always rains out the practices!!!! I think we will have practice tonight, but not tomorrow... and we have a game Wed and Thu, depending on how much rain we get will determine if we play or not... We play at Bear Creek... aka... Flood Central!!!!

[Yankeegirl]

The sun is out.... not good for later...?

[Extremeweatherguy]

[web]http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx/[/web]

Quite a few severe warnings up around San antonio right now!