SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Mid 80's and sunny this week

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jasons2k
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#21 Postby jasons2k » Fri Mar 30, 2007 6:38 pm

Surely will be something to watch overnight, but if NWS projections play out, the timing will be all wrong for widespread severe WX for SE TX.
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#22 Postby JenBayles » Fri Mar 30, 2007 7:38 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
632 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

.AVIATION...
MAIN ISSUE IS TRYING TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
WELL TO THE W OF SE TX. AM FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS...WHICH
IS FASTER THAN THE NAM PUSHING PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA. BELIEVE THAT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NW HALF OF THE AREA...BEGINNING 7-9Z. CONVECTION MAY WEAKEN TOWARD
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS...SO THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND DURATION ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.
HOPEFULLY THE SITUATION WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLEAR BY THE 6Z TAFS.
DO THINK THAT PRECIP WILL LIKELY END FROM WEST TO EAST...BEGINNING
EARLY TO MID-MORNING ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST (CLL).
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#23 Postby JenBayles » Fri Mar 30, 2007 8:37 pm

Anyone want to place bets on when any convection will begin to appear in SE TX? At the moment, it appears San Antonio is under the gun with a good-sized storm heading right down I-10 from their west. Aaaah.... Spring....
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#24 Postby jasons2k » Fri Mar 30, 2007 9:30 pm

I posted this in the N TX thread - but thought I'd pass this along here...

Pretty impressive meso-low on radar over Collin County:

Image
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#25 Postby jasons2k » Fri Mar 30, 2007 9:33 pm

Also the cell just south of SAT has looked nasty all evening - it's a right-turner:

Image
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#26 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Mar 30, 2007 9:34 pm

jschlitz wrote:I posted this in the N TX thread - but thought I'd pass this along here...

Pretty impressive meso-low on radar over Collin County:

Image
wow, that is impressive! Thanks for sharing that image jschlitz.
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#27 Postby jasons2k » Fri Mar 30, 2007 9:37 pm

Glad u liked it!

That's right on top of my parent's house :crazyeyes:
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#28 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Mar 30, 2007 10:45 pm

Don't like the look of this...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
950 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MOSAIC CR LOOP INDICATE BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION THIS MID EVENING
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM NEAR GREENVILLE TO CLIFTON AND
AND FARTHER SOUTHWEST TO THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR CHEROKEE AND
MASON. LARGE LONG LIVED SUPER CELLULAR STORM JUST WEST OF SAN
ANTONIO. OUR REGION REMAINING FOR THE MOST PART RAIN FREE THIS
EVENING. LATEST NAM AND RUC SLOWS DOWN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DRY
LINE/COOL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
...REACHING NW ZONES
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO REST OF CWFA DURING MORNING. OUR
CURRENT ZFPHGX IS ON TRACK WITH LATEST TRENDS. WE SHALL MONITOR
SITUATION VERY CLOSELY.


The slower this goes, the more likely we are to see severe weather out of this..
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#29 Postby Yankeegirl » Fri Mar 30, 2007 11:50 pm

its spitting outside....
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#30 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Mar 31, 2007 12:17 am

Yankeegirl wrote:its spitting outside....
yeah, just got a small shower come through here too.
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#31 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Mar 31, 2007 12:33 am

interesting IR view of complex in S Texas this evening...


http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... e&itype=ir



needs to be watched as the morning progresses... :wink:
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#32 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Mar 31, 2007 3:25 am

Tornado Watch in effect until 10am.
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#33 Postby Johnny » Sat Mar 31, 2007 5:43 am

It looks like all of the bad stuff is going to miss us here in Montgomery County. That's some nasty stuff down along I-10 down to the south of us though.
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#34 Postby jasons2k » Sat Mar 31, 2007 6:08 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
605 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 645 AM CDT

* AT 601 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR SIMONTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FULSHEAR...
MISSION BEND...
ADDICKS...
HEDWIG VILLAGE...
BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...
MEMORIAL...
PINEY POINT VILLAGE...
SPRING VALLEY...
HILSHIRE VILLAGE...
HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...

WHARTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THIS STORM PRODUCED
NICKEL SIZED HAIL NEAR EGYPT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2970 9607 2954 9599 2976 9519 2999 9529
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#35 Postby jasons2k » Sat Mar 31, 2007 6:13 am

Just got up - Yikes!!
Image
Image
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#36 Postby jasons2k » Sat Mar 31, 2007 6:15 am

I'm afraid Montgomery County is next for a warning actually
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#37 Postby Yankeegirl » Sat Mar 31, 2007 6:17 am

it is just starting here.... loud thunder and a ton of lightning....
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#38 Postby jasons2k » Sat Mar 31, 2007 6:18 am

Image
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#39 Postby Yankeegirl » Sat Mar 31, 2007 6:21 am

wonder how long its going to take to loose the power!! ill stay here as long as i can!!! absoultely amazing lightning, the thunder has woke up my teenagers!!! that says a lot!!!
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#40 Postby Yankeegirl » Sat Mar 31, 2007 6:21 am

satellite is out now....
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