Africa is Active

[gatorcane]

Large convection areas continue to blow up over the continent of Africa. We will see these areas begin migrating a bit more north as days go on, to around 10N lattitude in about 10 weeks (late June-July).

[cycloneye]

Nothing to be concerned about in terms of tropical development as it's very,very early.However,what I am following is the more moist air rather than a bone dry pattern inside most of the continent.If the more humid conditions are the rule in the next few months,then more tropical waves will emerge West Africa.

[gatorcane]

Nothing to be concerned about in terms of tropical development as it's very,very early.However,what I am following is the more moist air rather than a bone dry pattern inside most of the continent.If the more humid conditions are the rule in the next few months,then more tropical waves will emerge West Africa.

Luis, I just checked the SST across the Atlantic. Water temps are above normal across much of the Atlantic including the MDR unlike this time last year. Water temps around the Greater and Less Antilles are also above normal. Let us hope a SAL outbreak this summer helps weaken any waves that try to get going.

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually suppression of Cape Verde development would lead to development further west (near 55W or westward) closer to the Antilles and Bahamas. This would lead to a greater landfall threat with more homegrown tropical (and subtropical) development. Due to timing, these systems might not get picked by mid-level troughs and they would be steered further westward by the low-level flow before developing under favorable conditions near large and small land masses. See 1996, 2001, 2002, 2005, and other years as good examples.

[cycloneye]

Definitly the air is more moist lately.Let's see what pattern develops inside Africa,a dry spell or a moist enviroment.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/rfe.shtml

[gatorcane]

latest SAL map. Looks like the MDR has plenty of dust to thwart any development (at least for now).

[cycloneye]

http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/Main/Image ... x.htm?l=en

Above is the 5/2/07 00:00z pic of Africa which shows a big convection area a day away from emerging Western Africa.Nothing will occur with this in terms of tropical development,however as time goes by,these big blobs of convection will be more common.

[JonathanBelles]

That satelite is pretty cool. I havent seen it before.

[A1A]

Does anybody know the distance between the Eastern most point of Africa and the Western most point of South America? Looks really close in that pic.

[Scorpion]

Pretty far north for this time of the year

[RattleMan]

Does anybody know the distance between the Eastern most point of Africa and the Western most point of South America? Looks really close in that pic.

http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d178/ ... hCombo.jpg

Made with Google Earth. First is the literal distance between the two points, and the second is the approximate value for a straight line across the Atlantic.

[flightwxman]

A1A, Did you mean Western most point of Africa to Eastern most point of SA?

[RattleMan]

Here's from the eastern part of Africa to Western SA:

http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d178/ ... AtoWSA.jpg

Western Africa to Eastern SA:

http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d178/ ... AtoESA.jpg

[A1A]

Yes, flightwxman - I did mean that, and thanks RattleMan, converting 186180023 cm to miles that makes it 1,157 miles - a little bit wider than Texas!

[cycloneye]

Comparing the pic of last night that is posted in above posts,to this afternoon one,the convection has for the most part mantained but for sure it will start to diminuish soon.However,nothing will develop from this as it's very early for that part of the world to become active.

[AussieMark]

During the period from April 21-30 2007, the African portion of the ITCZ was located near 12.5 degrees north latitude when averaged over the ten day period and from 15W-35E. This compares with a normal position of 12.1N and a position last dekad of 11.0N. From figure 1, it is obvious that much of the central and eastern region saw the ITCZ move significantly to the north during the previous dekad. In the west (10W-10E) the ITCZ was located near 13.8N compared with a normal position of 13.3N. In the east (20E-35E), the ITCZ was located near 11.6N compared with 10.7N normally.

Source

[mobilebay]

That is a very impressive wave/trough for this time of the year though!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Holy Smokes that is some very intense convection moving off the African Coast! If this were August I'd say we get a TS within 1-2 days once it hits the water...
but the most I expect from this is maybe a tropical depression if it does not fizzle out.

[cycloneye]

That area of convection that I haved followed for the past three days is now emerging the West African Coast with plenty of convection that has pulsed up and down as it moved inside Africa.Now as it hits the water,the convection will start to diminuish.I would be surprised if this area of convection mantains as it is May.