After Andrea, what will the world see?

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu May 10, 2007 2:53 pm

Good question. At the moment there's only an invest in NRL but 98W isn't showing any signs of intensification. Watching the NOGAPS model indicates that the next storm will form in the Western Pacific and move towards the Guam area in about a week. In the rest of the world there are no sings of possible developments according to the model. Time will tell.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WXMAP/index.html

Sandy

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 10, 2007 3:05 pm

Yes,it's very quiet in the tropics around the world right now.The calm before the storm?

Opal storm · #3 Postby **Opal storm** » Thu May 10, 2007 3:12 pm

It's still early May, we still have a while before things start to heat up.

#4 Postby **P.K.** » Thu May 10, 2007 3:29 pm

Tokyo dropped both LPAs that they had earlier. Anyone seen the ECMWF runs for the SW Pacific recently? Would be rather late in the season (Well it is over technically) for anything to form there. Link

Edit - Anyone know how to shorten the link? The code doesn't appear to be working as usual.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #5 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Thu May 10, 2007 3:54 pm

The next system would probably form in the western
pacific, given that WPAC season begans earlier than
atlantic season

Coredesat · #6 Postby **Coredesat** » Thu May 10, 2007 3:57 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:The next system would probably form in the western
pacific, given that WPAC season begans earlier than
atlantic season

January 1st, actually. :wink:

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #7 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Thu May 10, 2007 3:59 pm

Wow! I never knew it was that early!!!

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 10, 2007 4:05 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Wow! I never knew it was that early!!!

And already there has been a typhoon in the Western Pacific (Kong_Rey).

#9 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu May 10, 2007 4:05 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Wow! I never knew it was that early!!!

In reality it never begins because it never ends!!!

#10 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Thu May 10, 2007 5:02 pm

While it is true that the season never ends in WPAC (or the Southern Hemisphere for that matter) there is a period of very low activity (February through April) before things start to crank up in May. BTW EPAC starts in 5 days. Another thing to point out is that in WPAC Tropical cyclones can form below latitude 10N and even 5N on occasion-usually early in the year and late.

Steve

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #11 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Thu May 10, 2007 6:02 pm

Thanks for the information on the WPAC!!!

Coredesat · #12 Postby **Coredesat** » Thu May 10, 2007 6:05 pm

Interestingly, this topic is about inactivity, a 99B.INVEST just popped up on NRL.

#13 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu May 10, 2007 6:13 pm

Number of named storms in the WPAC by May 10 from 2000 - 2007.

2000: 1
2001: 1
2002: 1
2003: 2
2004: 1
2005: 3
2006: 1
2007: 1

Avg: 1.375

Over the next few weeks the WPAC will heat up substancially.

#14 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu May 10, 2007 10:10 pm

As for the Atlantic? I think Barry will be a June storm but another weak one.

#15 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 11, 2007 6:22 am

[font=Georgia]The Day of the 99[/font]

INVEST 99B

INVEST 99W

None of them show immediate signs of development.

#16 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 11, 2007 6:24 am

WPAC NOGAPS:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... p_tropwpac

Same Idea, track similar to Kong-Rey.

#17 Postby **P.K.** » Fri May 11, 2007 4:40 pm

Aslkahuna wrote:While it is true that the season never ends in WPAC (or the Southern Hemisphere for that matter)

Not sure where you are getting the second bit from from. The SW Indian Ocean season is officially November to the end of April (Or to 15th May for Mauritius and the Seychelles). The Australian season is November to the end of April as is the SW Pacific season.

Of note a new low pressure area has formed in the Bay of Bengal.

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24 HOURS. FROM 11/05/ 2007 1800 UTC 11 MAY 2007
==================================================================
PART - I : NO STORM WARNING
PART - II : UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCIR OVER NW ADJ CENTRAL
BAY BETWEEN 0.9 KM 2.1 KM ASL OVER BAY (.)
A LOPAR HAS FORMED OVER EC BAY N/H (.)

WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII( N)

#18 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Fri May 11, 2007 5:16 pm

Climatologically speaking, the season never ends since TCs can form in the Southern Hemisphere any month of the year and have done so in the past. Yes, the primary season of activity occurs as you say. In WPAC one can say (as I do) that the primary season there runs from 1 May through 31 December with January through April the secondary season.

Southern Hemispher Climo Averages May through October (Number per year)
May 0.9
June 0.2
July 0.4
Aug 0.1
Sep 0.3
Oct 0.7

For WPAC (January Through April)
Jan 0.6
Feb 0.3
Mar 0.5
APR 0.8

Now let someone post the averages for the ATL for June and November.

Steve

#19 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Fri May 11, 2007 10:10 pm

I was about to write odds on Wpac for next storm development, average by this time of year is 2 however only Kong-rey has formed so far.

Looking at the ECMWF model today they're going for a N Indian Bangladesh landfall in about 80 hours time - will have to keep an eye on that to see if it materialises.

Chacor · #20 Postby **Chacor** » Fri May 11, 2007 10:19 pm

90W looks interesting.

After Andrea, what will the world see?

After Andrea, what will the world see?

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