Tropical Depression Barry Main Thread

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have no earthly idea why this was named. This system is and never was anywhere near tropical; it always resembled a frontal system, and the center has always been exposed; last night the models were undecided on whether to consider it cold- or warm-core. SAB agrees with me:

I have an idea, it's a little something called recon. Data doesn't lie.

I understand recon finding TS winds. I don't understand where they got "deep convection near the center" from. I didn't see any then and I don't see any now,

there was deep convection right over/very near the center about 2-3 hours ago. It was very easy to see, and I don't really know how you could have missed it. Also, Recon didn't find just TS force winds...they also found a CLOSED, WARM-CORE low-level circulation. Those elements combined were more than enough to warrent a name for this system.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Regardless of whether or not it turns extratropical...
florida should see rain and some wind

[Cyclenall]

I have no earthly idea why this was named. This system is and never was anywhere near tropical; it always resembled a frontal system, and the center has always been exposed; last night the models were undecided on whether to consider it cold- or warm-core. SAB agrees with me:

I have an idea, it's a little something called recon. Data doesn't lie.

I understand recon finding TS winds. I don't understand where they got "deep convection near the center" from. I didn't see any then and I don't see any now. I'm not bashing the recon.

There was some convection earlier around the center but I doubt it was covering the center. The deep convection rapidly got sheared off the LLC and now we are on the verge of having a naked Barry. There were other data found that shown why Barry got classified as a TS.

[shannon]

Are the storms south of Cuba associated with Barry? Sorry if this is a silly question. Been a member for awhile, but just like to read everybody's post as my knowledge in this area is very slim. Thanks to anyone who will answer!

[Thunder44]

I have no earthly idea why this was named. This system is and never was anywhere near tropical; it always resembled a frontal system, and the center has always been exposed; last night the models were undecided on whether to consider it cold- or warm-core. SAB agrees with me:

I have an idea, it's a little something called recon. Data doesn't lie.

I understand recon finding TS winds. I don't understand where they got "deep convection near the center" from. I didn't see any then and I don't see any now. I'm not bashing the recon.

Look at the infrared images between 19:45 and 21:15 UTC:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

This has not been a well organized system, but we had a recon confirm earlier that did in fact had enough tropical characteristics.

[Cyclenall]

Are the storms south of Cuba associated with Barry? Sorry if this is a silly question. Been a member for awhile, but just like to read everybody's post as my knowledge in this area is very slim. Thanks to anyone who will answer!

I was asking myself the exact same thing 4 horus ago.

[Thunder44]

Are the storms south of Cuba associated with Barry? Sorry if this is a silly question. Been a member for awhile, but just like to read everybody's post as my knowledge in this area is very slim. Thanks to anyone who will answer!

I was asking myself the exact same thing 4 horus ago.

Yes they are.

[Thunder44]

I have no earthly idea why this was named. This system is and never was anywhere near tropical; it always resembled a frontal system, and the center has always been exposed; last night the models were undecided on whether to consider it cold- or warm-core. SAB agrees with me:

01/2345 UTC 24.2N 85.1W TOO WEAK BARRY

Going back to the cyclone phase diagrams, this is what the latest model runs have initiated Barry as:

18Z GFS: asymmetric warm-core becoming frontal cold-core
18Z NAM: Doesn't pick it up. The NAM had this earlier today and last night. It has an asymmetric warm-core system forming in 18 hours off the coast of Florida.
18Z GFDL: Doesn't pick up the system, develops something over land in 24 hours
18Z UKMO: asymmetric warm-core
12Z CMC: symmetric warm-core
12Z NOGAPS: symmetric warm-core about to become asymmetric

Model forecasts and Sat estimates are irrelevant against surface obs and recon data.

[srainhoutx]

Are the storms south of Cuba associated with Barry? Sorry if this is a silly question. Been a member for awhile, but just like to read everybody's post as my knowledge in this area is very slim. Thanks to anyone who will answer!

Storms S of Cuba are somewhat related to "Barry", but more associated with Tropical Moisture behind Warm Front that passed the Keys earlier today. It is a difference of airmasses. FL and a lot of the SE Coast has been under the influence of strong High Pressure and a true Tropical airmass if replacing it. Good IR Loop of this change in airmass...


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

[Rainband]

Breaking news: Barry rainfall estimates are now cut in half as of now.
The rainfall will not be more than 1.5 or 2 inches at most 1 inch of rain is now the expected total for most of Florida maybe less than that. Barry is drying up big time............

My local news just said 3-6.

[artist]

Breaking news: Barry rainfall estimates are now cut in half as of now.
The rainfall will not be more than 1.5 or 2 inches at most 1 inch of rain is now the expected total for most of Florida maybe less than that. Barry is drying up big time............POST REMOVED BY RAINBAND

according to you??

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

When Barry looked really good a few hours ago, it was because it was moving in line with the shear, lessening its impact and allowing the strong convection to build very near to the center. Then when the motion slowed down and turned to just meandering, the shear had more of an effect and blew off all the convection from the center. As Barry once again starts speeding up and heading N or NNE, we may see him start generating convection again near the center. He could blow up all over again. Never underestimate these things until they are truly over with no chance to redevelop (in other words, over land!)
Barry could also stay nekkid and just be a breezy swirl, proceeded by a bunch of rain.

[B'hamBlazer]

Breaking news: Barry rainfall estimates are now cut in half as of now.
The rainfall will not be more than 1.5 or 2 inches at most 1 inch of rain is now the expected total for most of Florida maybe less than that. Barry is drying up big time............

My local news just said 3-6.

Most forecasts I've seen indicate 3-6 inches for the majority of Florida (minus the western parts of the panhandle).

[jaxfladude]

Breaking news: Barry rainfall estimates are now cut in half as of now.
The rainfall will not be more than 1.5 or 2 inches at most 1 inch of rain is now the expected total for most of Florida maybe less than that. Barry is drying up big time............

My local news just said 3-6.

Most forecasts I've seen indicate 3-6 inches for the majority of Florida (minus the western parts of the panhandle).

Those were of the late afternoon to early evening forecasts, expect a lowering of rainfall estimates later tonight.......

[Rainband]

Breaking news: Barry rainfall estimates are now cut in half as of now.
The rainfall will not be more than 1.5 or 2 inches at most 1 inch of rain is now the expected total for most of Florida maybe less than that. Barry is drying up big time............

My local news just said 3-6.

Most forecasts I've seen indicate 3-6 inches for the majority of Florida (minus the western parts of the panhandle).

Those were of the late afternoon to early evening forecasts, expect a lowering of rainfall estimates later tonight.......

Keep posting false info and you won't be here to post them

[B'hamBlazer]

Actually, I've seen forecasts as recently as 8:45PM CST that give the 3-6 inch value.

[jinftl]

As of 9pm, NWS Miami saying 2-3 inches widespread, some areas up to 5 inches of rain...


GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
854 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES TONIGHT...


...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.


FLOODING: THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT, AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 2 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF AROUND 5 INCHES.EVEN THOUGH IT HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY, THE HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE
FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION IF THEY ENCOUNTER WATER COVERED ROADWAYS.

[jdray]

Well,

Fox 30 news in Jax showed a model on the 10 O'Clock news that shows 7.5+ inches of rain for Clay County Florida, so we will see.....

[wjs3]

Are the storms south of Cuba associated with Barry? Sorry if this is a silly question. Been a member for awhile, but just like to read everybody's post as my knowledge in this area is very slim. Thanks to anyone who will answer!

Storms S of Cuba are somewhat related to "Barry", but more associated with Tropical Moisture behind Warm Front that passed the Keys earlier today. It is a difference of airmasses. FL and a lot of the SE Coast has been under the influence of strong High Pressure and a true Tropical airmass if replacing it. Good IR Loop of this change in airmass...


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

Nice analysis. And good question, Shannon.

WJS3

[drezee]

Barry is still producing strong winds

02/02 42003 26.0 -85.9 24.3 22.0 060 35 G 41 070 43 1005.1 -2.3 25.9 3.5 8 42003

35 kts sustained 10-min winds